+0.0
net board stance
what this means
134.46
-7.3% · close 2026-09-08
-11% / +22% / -8%
1m / 3m / 12m
+15%
vs SPY since 2025-04-11
47%
of 52w range · -24.9% off high
2/2
hit rate as primary · α +44
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on SHOP
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 2 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 1.0, average α +44.5. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Creator and gig income absorbs the labor force - participation stats understate earning power | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +90.7% | +74.5 | 2023-11-05 |
| 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -71.3% | -157.1 | 2026-08-06 |
| 📈 Shopify's ecosystem equity stakes are free optionality in the sum of parts | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +48.3% | +14.5 | 2024-09-22 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding SHOP, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
The first takeaway for me was the value of Stripe's ecosystem is probably underappreciated. ... But in the report, they talk about all the additional products that they're able to build around core payments. And one of them is the billing product. It's half a billion dollars a year of ARR. That's just incredible. And I think if they figure out network effects inside of the Stripe ecosystem, that's interesting. So that's first, which is the hub and spoke of payments being at the center, but all of these other incremental services.
I have one company myself and I'm proud to say I've sold no shares of my Robinhood. I keep all my Robinhood shares. ... Their whole plan was always to provide the full suite of services.
their margins and their LTV to CAC or their return on invested capital, it looks the same or in some cases worse than the traditional financial services businesses that they're meant to disrupt
You know, when you see like what Jimmy Donaldson does, or even like Kim Kardashian, what they do as content creators, it's just an intense process that then creates all this upside.
Shopify actually owns like 11% of this company ... if you do some of the parts on Shopify, their cash and cash equivalents are only valued at like 2 or 3 billion. So I feel like there's a ton of upside there just for free.
This is something important you're bringing up here. Gig workers are about 9% of the workforce and Uber and Dara had, they grew over 70% this year, but I think the big number that I watched for was drivers are making $36 an hour in the United States working for Uber. So you're exactly right. People are finding other options, whether it's DoorDash, Uber, Etsy.
People are making more money on YouTube, on Instagram, on TikTok than ever before. There's a whole new class of work that revolves around the individual creating their own business, creating their own income stream that's simply taken off and has taken off.
CL
Claire Cormier Thielke
support ×1
▲ on
📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers
E82 · 2022-05-24
▶ 0:28
China's e-commerce percentage is about 25% of their overall retail. Here it's about 14%. Again, y'all are smart. We can see where this is going. ... In China, about 85-ish percent of their transactions are mobile. Here, that's barely 30%. Where is that going? How does that work? Again, you can see what's happening.
Right, but who are the big winners in this wave of consolidation going to be at the end of the day? It's going to be Square, it's going to be Stripe, it's going to be PayPal, it's going to be the big online companies, not the offline legacy banks.
I have a big thesis and a big belief that over the next decade, we're going to see those five categories start to merge and you're going to have three to five superpowers that are going to offer a consolidated stack of services.
And so if Square can basically continue to acquire or build adjacent features that consolidates the financial services stack for their consumers, the stock market will reward these guys. They'll be able to grow and buy things for free for the next five or 10 years. ... If you can see folks acquiring adjacent features, or if you can see folks taking expense lines and turning them into revenue lines, these are, in my opinion, sure bet companies that compound forever in the public markets.