SHOP

Shopify Inc.

stock all instruments
+24.6
net board stance what this means
148.91
+3.6% · close 2026-11-06
-10% / -2% / -5%
1m / 3m / 12m
+6%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
64%
of 52w range · -16.9% off high
2/2
hit rate as primary · vs SPY +44

Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesmoved yet?scored in
🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice POD DISAGREES ▲ LONG adjacent ×0.5 49.3 +24.6 NOT MOVED YET 323d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence. Last mention E294 · silent for 2 episodes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Chamath
Chamath 42% equities
4 ideas (1 live) · last heard E292
+7
pushes up
Sacks
Sacks 44% equities
2 ideas (1 live) · last heard E292
+3
pushes up
Jason
Jason 53% tech
3 ideas (1 live) · last heard E294
+2
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg 55% tech
3 ideas (1 live) · last heard E292
+1
pushes up
CL
Claire Cormier Thielke guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E82
+1
pushes up
NI
Nikesh Arora guest ×0.5
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E294
-1
pushes down

What resolves next

scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not

2027-09-26 323d ▲ 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice 49

Track record on SHOP

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 2 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 1.0, average vs SPY +44.5. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayresultreturnvs SPYscored
🤖 Creator and gig income absorbs the labor force - participation stats understate earning power ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +90.7% +74.5 2023-11-05
📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers ▲ LONG adjacent WRONG -71.3% -157.1 2026-08-06
📈 Shopify's ecosystem equity stakes are free optionality in the sum of parts ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +48.3% +14.5 2024-09-22

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding SHOP, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Jason Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 30:11
Amazon has blocked these and subsequently, Grok now will tell you, my Amazon shopping bot says, I can no longer check out for you, but I can put it into your shopping cart, tell me which address, which card you want and I'll tee it all up for you, but I won't hit the buy button. So it's being adjudicated in real time right now and I think that's probably where we wind up.
NI Nikesh Arora oppose ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 23:11
So I think you see banks saying, do not, I do not allow you to interact with me with your agent period.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:28:06
You can go run 50 website searches at the exact same time. And you can short circuit the loop because the software's ability to get that data is faster than the human's ability. So now the loop is go check 50 websites instantly, give me a result right away.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:26:39
But you look at Amazon blocking agents combined with Shopify saying, let's go for it, or Uber and DoorDash are now letting agents go in there and order your burrito or your car. But there's a whole compression of the commerce layer occurring at the same time of the compression of software that Chamath is talking about, which will lead to massive deflationary cost savings and speed.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:23:11
someone was describing to me that they in Grok Bot said, save me money. And it just kind of like goes through their inbox, it finds all of these different things, and it went and canceled a couple of subscriptions and it changed their phone plan and all of a sudden, they're saving like a few thousand dollars a year.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:00:34
In fact, SI will eat the internet because there's no reason to basically go looking on a website when you can just ask your question to your highly personalized agent or model, and it's going to give you the answer.
Jason Jason support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 1:16:56
Shopify, Sacks, added API access to all the Shopify stores there. So this seems like maybe Amazon's making a strategic mistake here by not embracing the tech.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 1:13:53
The second thing though is really interesting. Things like Grokbot and Muse really put the App Store and its 30 percent rev share on notice. Why? Because all of a sudden, what you do is you force many of these services to exist headlessly, right?
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers E217 · 2025-03-01 ▶ 21:55
The first takeaway for me was the value of Stripe's ecosystem is probably underappreciated. ... But in the report, they talk about all the additional products that they're able to build around core payments. And one of them is the billing product. It's half a billion dollars a year of ARR. That's just incredible. And I think if they figure out network effects inside of the Stripe ecosystem, that's interesting. So that's first, which is the hub and spoke of payments being at the center, but all of these other incremental services.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers E172 · 2024-03-29 ▶ 1:09:34
I have one company myself and I'm proud to say I've sold no shares of my Robinhood. I keep all my Robinhood shares. ... Their whole plan was always to provide the full suite of services.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers E163 · 2024-01-26 ▶ 1:13:12
their margins and their LTV to CAC or their return on invested capital, it looks the same or in some cases worse than the traditional financial services businesses that they're meant to disrupt
Chamath Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Creator and gig income absorbs the labor force - participation stats understate earning power E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 9:10
You know, when you see like what Jimmy Donaldson does, or even like Kim Kardashian, what they do as content creators, it's just an intense process that then creates all this upside.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Shopify's ecosystem equity stakes are free optionality in the sum of parts E146 · 2023-09-22 ▶ 58:21
Shopify actually owns like 11% of this company ... if you do some of the parts on Shopify, their cash and cash equivalents are only valued at like 2 or 3 billion. So I feel like there's a ton of upside there just for free.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Creator and gig income absorbs the labor force - participation stats understate earning power E103 · 2022-11-05 ▶ 40:25
This is something important you're bringing up here. Gig workers are about 9% of the workforce and Uber and Dara had, they grew over 70% this year, but I think the big number that I watched for was drivers are making $36 an hour in the United States working for Uber. So you're exactly right. People are finding other options, whether it's DoorDash, Uber, Etsy.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Creator and gig income absorbs the labor force - participation stats understate earning power E103 · 2022-11-05 ▶ 39:23
People are making more money on YouTube, on Instagram, on TikTok than ever before. There's a whole new class of work that revolves around the individual creating their own business, creating their own income stream that's simply taken off and has taken off.
CL Claire Cormier Thielke support ×1 ▲ on 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers E82 · 2022-05-24 ▶ 0:28
China's e-commerce percentage is about 25% of their overall retail. Here it's about 14%. Again, y'all are smart. We can see where this is going. ... In China, about 85-ish percent of their transactions are mobile. Here, that's barely 30%. Where is that going? How does that work? Again, you can see what's happening.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers E43 · 2021-08-06 ▶ 1:24:13
Right, but who are the big winners in this wave of consolidation going to be at the end of the day? It's going to be Square, it's going to be Stripe, it's going to be PayPal, it's going to be the big online companies, not the offline legacy banks.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers E43 · 2021-08-06 ▶ 1:16:16
I have a big thesis and a big belief that over the next decade, we're going to see those five categories start to merge and you're going to have three to five superpowers that are going to offer a consolidated stack of services.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers E43 · 2021-08-06 ▶ 1:13:35
And so if Square can basically continue to acquire or build adjacent features that consolidates the financial services stack for their consumers, the stock market will reward these guys. They'll be able to grow and buy things for free for the next five or 10 years. ... If you can see folks acquiring adjacent features, or if you can see folks taking expense lines and turning them into revenue lines, these are, in my opinion, sure bet companies that compound forever in the public markets.