+24.6
net board stance
what this means
148.91
+3.6% · close 2026-11-06
-10% / -2% / -5%
1m / 3m / 12m
+6%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
64%
of 52w range · -16.9% off high
2/2
hit rate as primary · vs SPY +44
Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice POD DISAGREES | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 49.3 | +24.6 | NOT MOVED YET | 323d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Last mention E294 · silent for 2 episodes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
Track record on SHOP
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 2 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 1.0, average vs SPY +44.5. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | result | return | vs SPY | scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Creator and gig income absorbs the labor force - participation stats understate earning power | ▲ LONG | primary | RIGHT | +90.7% | +74.5 | 2023-11-05 |
| 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers | ▲ LONG | adjacent | WRONG | -71.3% | -157.1 | 2026-08-06 |
| 📈 Shopify's ecosystem equity stakes are free optionality in the sum of parts | ▲ LONG | primary | RIGHT | +48.3% | +14.5 | 2024-09-22 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding SHOP, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Amazon has blocked these and subsequently, Grok now will tell you, my Amazon shopping bot says, I can no longer check out for you, but I can put it into your shopping cart, tell me which address, which card you want and I'll tee it all up for you, but I won't hit the buy button. So it's being adjudicated in real time right now and I think that's probably where we wind up.
NI
Nikesh Arora
oppose ×1
▼ on
🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice
E294 · 2026-10-23
▶ 23:11
So I think you see banks saying, do not, I do not allow you to interact with me with your agent period.
You can go run 50 website searches at the exact same time. And you can short circuit the loop because the software's ability to get that data is faster than the human's ability. So now the loop is go check 50 websites instantly, give me a result right away.
But you look at Amazon blocking agents combined with Shopify saying, let's go for it, or Uber and DoorDash are now letting agents go in there and order your burrito or your car. But there's a whole compression of the commerce layer occurring at the same time of the compression of software that Chamath is talking about, which will lead to massive deflationary cost savings and speed.
someone was describing to me that they in Grok Bot said, save me money. And it just kind of like goes through their inbox, it finds all of these different things, and it went and canceled a couple of subscriptions and it changed their phone plan and all of a sudden, they're saving like a few thousand dollars a year.
In fact, SI will eat the internet because there's no reason to basically go looking on a website when you can just ask your question to your highly personalized agent or model, and it's going to give you the answer.
Shopify, Sacks, added API access to all the Shopify stores there. So this seems like maybe Amazon's making a strategic mistake here by not embracing the tech.
The second thing though is really interesting. Things like Grokbot and Muse really put the App Store and its 30 percent rev share on notice. Why? Because all of a sudden, what you do is you force many of these services to exist headlessly, right?
The first takeaway for me was the value of Stripe's ecosystem is probably underappreciated. ... But in the report, they talk about all the additional products that they're able to build around core payments. And one of them is the billing product. It's half a billion dollars a year of ARR. That's just incredible. And I think if they figure out network effects inside of the Stripe ecosystem, that's interesting. So that's first, which is the hub and spoke of payments being at the center, but all of these other incremental services.
I have one company myself and I'm proud to say I've sold no shares of my Robinhood. I keep all my Robinhood shares. ... Their whole plan was always to provide the full suite of services.
their margins and their LTV to CAC or their return on invested capital, it looks the same or in some cases worse than the traditional financial services businesses that they're meant to disrupt
You know, when you see like what Jimmy Donaldson does, or even like Kim Kardashian, what they do as content creators, it's just an intense process that then creates all this upside.
Shopify actually owns like 11% of this company ... if you do some of the parts on Shopify, their cash and cash equivalents are only valued at like 2 or 3 billion. So I feel like there's a ton of upside there just for free.
This is something important you're bringing up here. Gig workers are about 9% of the workforce and Uber and Dara had, they grew over 70% this year, but I think the big number that I watched for was drivers are making $36 an hour in the United States working for Uber. So you're exactly right. People are finding other options, whether it's DoorDash, Uber, Etsy.
People are making more money on YouTube, on Instagram, on TikTok than ever before. There's a whole new class of work that revolves around the individual creating their own business, creating their own income stream that's simply taken off and has taken off.
CL
Claire Cormier Thielke
support ×1
▲ on
📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers
E82 · 2022-05-24
▶ 0:28
China's e-commerce percentage is about 25% of their overall retail. Here it's about 14%. Again, y'all are smart. We can see where this is going. ... In China, about 85-ish percent of their transactions are mobile. Here, that's barely 30%. Where is that going? How does that work? Again, you can see what's happening.
Right, but who are the big winners in this wave of consolidation going to be at the end of the day? It's going to be Square, it's going to be Stripe, it's going to be PayPal, it's going to be the big online companies, not the offline legacy banks.
I have a big thesis and a big belief that over the next decade, we're going to see those five categories start to merge and you're going to have three to five superpowers that are going to offer a consolidated stack of services.
And so if Square can basically continue to acquire or build adjacent features that consolidates the financial services stack for their consumers, the stock market will reward these guys. They'll be able to grow and buy things for free for the next five or 10 years. ... If you can see folks acquiring adjacent features, or if you can see folks taking expense lines and turning them into revenue lines, these are, in my opinion, sure bet companies that compound forever in the public markets.