🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 17:43 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“2025 will be the year of the robot... [Unitree's] GO2 robot is $1,600, has an API... we just placed an order today... It takes a long time for things to work, and then all of a sudden they happen faster than you could have ever imagined... this could be the year of the big rollout.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.46 · n=13 · E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 21:22 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“Profoundly agree — the year of the robots inclusive of FSD. I think FSD works today and it's going to cross into mainstream adoption... it's going to continue compounding at an accelerating rate.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 29:02 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“My biggest business winner prediction for 2025 is Tesla and Google. This is going to be the year of AI and robotics... I'm absolutely in awe of what Elon did with Colossus.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E210 (2025-01-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:24:43 SUPPORT

“I think the interesting thing is that, they really doubled down and created a pretty decent test bench for robotics. I thought that was pretty interesting, so I think that reinforces what a lot of smart people including, you know, what Friedberg and Gavin also spoke about, just in terms of the long-term future for robots.”

Cyan Banister (regular guest ×1.0) tech: 4 resolved, unproven · E210 (2025-01-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:22:55 SUPPORT

“But it is true, this is going to be the largest breakout in robotics we've ever seen, if Waymo is any indicator.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E210 (2025-01-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:27:24 SUPPORT

“But the bet he's making is that the models are good enough and now the chips are good enough that they can actually realize real-time responses using machine vision, using real-time input, and then respond quickly with a local model running, whatever that model is, to drive some output in the industrial setting. And that there'll be a lot of these sorts of applications, whether that's making predictions for biotech research, or whether that's for running robots in warehouses, or building new research models, or maybe you could strap this PC on the back of something like a car, a tractor, a lawnmower, a humanoid robot, or any other set of applications.”

Travis Kalanick (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.33 · n=6 · E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:30:09 SUPPORT

“So like we're getting to a place where these vehicles are provably safer than human driven vehicles. So, yes, there are mistakes, but they're just provably safer and people are just getting used to it. And that's a big part of the cycle. So I think we're getting out of the hysteria and we're getting into like, yeah, it's just great.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E217 (2025-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 17:43 SUPPORT

“But I think this is the category people are sleeping on. And I don't know who on the on our prediction show said, this will be the year of robots. But it's been, this is the year of robots for 30 years in the industry. And it does feel like this is it.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E217 (2025-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 18:21 SUPPORT

“I am, yeah. I think it's also, it's not just this kind of dexterous automation, but I do think drones, autonomous vehicles, I put them all in the same category where there's some, it's some combination of mechanical response to a machine vision system that I think has become like accelerated this year.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E217 (2025-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 16:25 OPPOSE · horizon 24mo

“The thing that you noticed though is that the actuators are good, they're not great. And so the physical dexterity is still relatively limited. And I think that that doesn't allow these robots to be super functional in the next couple of years.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.46 · n=13 · E221 (2025-03-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 33:05 OPPOSE

“I think it's going to be a long time before we have hundreds of millions of robots. You know, even between China and Tesla, I think it's going to take a long time to make vast numbers of humanoid robots.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E221 (2025-03-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 29:59 SUPPORT

“And isn't where the puck's going that we're going to have optimist robots, figure robots, pick a robot company doing all this work?”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E222 (2025-04-05) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:41:38 SUPPORT

“Yeah, we need to get better at this stuff. I mean, the good news is we're going to have robots to do this.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E225 (2025-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:16:21 SUPPORT

“Oh, yeah. I mean, right now, my car is effectively a robo-taxi. ... That's the worst part about the experience because it is so good.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E225 (2025-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:16:58 OPPOSE

“there's a lot of videos getting posted on Twitter of FSD being on and then the car drives into the sunlight and at a certain angle, when the sun hits the cameras, the car goes into an emergency disconnect on FSD. I've had that happen. I know it's true. I know it's real. So, it is a bit of a risk with the camera-only mode on how Tesla operates FSD if they can actually run a full, you know, never to disengage RoboTaxi service like Waymo does.”

Philippe Laffont (guest ×0.5) no tech track record · E227 (2025-05-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:31:36 SUPPORT

“Listen, humanoids is a pretty exciting area. I don't know what companies are, but there is going, like, let me, in my top 25, I don't think, I think it's a bit early. I would have a humanoid company.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E227 (2025-05-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:30:50 OPPOSE

“one of these robotic companies that has zero revenue and wanted a $40 billion valuation, and there's all these civilians, retail investors who are investing in your fund, but also have direct access to these secondary markets, you also have to buy at the right price. These, I know firsthand, for those top companies are massively inflated.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E229 (2025-05-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:28:41 SUPPORT

“Automation, which is unlocked by AI, we are going to see an explosion of robots. They're not going to all be humanoid robots, but robotics allows humans to get an incredible amount of work done. Imagine having the cost to build a giant building go down by 50x.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E231 (2025-06-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:25:00 SUPPORT

“And I'll just say, Elon, amazing, Tesla, incredible, and I would not be sleeping on this company, is what I would say.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E232 (2025-06-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 35:23 SUPPORT

“I think this humanoid robot opportunity is absolutely mind-blowingly ginormous. I don't think that there's a better company on earth positioned to execute against this humanoid robotics opportunity than Tesla.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E232 (2025-06-21) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 47:31 SUPPORT

“My number one is build a humanoid robot. Like, how does Apple not have a humanoid robot? That seems like that's obviously the next giant consumer market is having optimists or figure in your house.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E232 (2025-06-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:29:10 SUPPORT

“For physical AI, they're a kingmaker in parts because they're a sink for demand. So they'll just generate so much demand for robots. So if a figure lands the BMW or the UPS robot successfully, Amazon will buy a gajillion of them. If Optimus lands a successful robot that they tune inside the Tesla factory and then are ready to sell, Amazon will buy a gajillion of them.”

Travis Kalanick (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.33 · n=6 · E235 (2025-07-11) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 7:57 SUPPORT

“And so those customers are starting to deploy this quarter. And it's pretty interesting. I mean, in our delivery kitchens, the cost of labor is about 30% of revenue. That's what the successful guy, let's say 30%, 35% of revenue. In a brick and mortar restaurant, it's even higher. When they're running our machine, it's between 7% and 10% of revenue.”