🏛️ The IRA kills the carbon tax — carbon markets and DAC are dead ends
By subsidising supply and green-lighting permitting instead of pricing emissions, the Inflation Reduction Act removes the political need for a US carbon tax, which now never happens. Carbon allowance markets, carbon trading and direct air capture therefore do not become the businesses the market assumed — the cost curve, not the price of a permit, is what clears emissions.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 64.1 WATCH
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT KRBN
expression · bearish politics-market
MISS
outcome · R +1.1% · α -6.3%
2023-08-20
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT KRBN (primary play). KRBN fell 1.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +1.1% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +7.3%
→ α = +1.1 − (+7.3) = -6.3%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +8.4% — did KRBN move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-08-20)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | KRBN | etf | PRIMARY | global carbon allowance futures — the direct expression of 'carbon markets are not going to be the thing we thought' |
| ▼ SHORT | GRN | etf | adjacent | carbon-credit ETN, second read on allowance pricing |
Mention log
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E92 (2022-08-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:03:02
SUPPORT
“And in that lens, I think like a whole bunch of business models got turned upside down. So I think carbon markets and carbon trading are not going to be the thing that we thought it was going to be. I think stuff like direct air capture, again, are going to be toy projects off to the side.”
Jason
politics-market w=1.00 · n=62
· E92 (2022-08-20) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:09:20
SUPPORT
“instead of doing this carbon tax, which seems incredibly elegant, but we all know it's impossible to get consensus across hundreds of governments and locales to negotiate this, it will never happen, at least not effectively and in real time.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -54.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E92 2022-08-20 | init | +42.9 | 42.9 | E92 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.02] |
| E92 2022-08-20 | reinforce | +12.9 | 55.7 | E92 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E92 2022-08-20 | reinforce | +8.3 | 64.1 | E92 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -2.6 | 61.5 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -2.5 | 59.0 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -2.4 | 56.7 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -2.3 | 54.4 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -2.2 | 52.2 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -2.1 | 50.2 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -2.0 | 48.1 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -1.9 | 46.2 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -1.8 | 44.4 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -1.8 | 42.6 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -1.7 | 40.9 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -1.6 | 39.3 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -1.6 | 37.7 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -1.5 | 36.2 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -1.4 | 34.7 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -1.4 | 33.3 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -1.3 | 32.0 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -1.3 | 30.7 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -1.2 | 29.5 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -1.1 | 27.2 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -1.1 | 26.1 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -1.0 | 25.1 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -1.0 | 24.1 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -1.0 | 23.1 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.9 | 22.2 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.9 | 21.3 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.9 | 20.4 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.8 | 18.1 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.7 | 17.4 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.7 | 16.7 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.7 | 16.0 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.6 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E142 silent |