🌍 COVID a distant memory by summer 2021

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E8 (2020-09-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 43:04 SUPPORT · horizon 9mo

“There's not going to be a second lockdown. It doesn't make any sense. And even if there were, people aren't going to support it... I think COVID is going to be a distant memory by next summer. I really do... I think people will largely be back to what they were doing last summer... there was no trend of people not going to sports games anymore... stuff like that will just snap right back.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E10 (2020-10-16) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 38:00 SUPPORT

“I do think it is noteworthy that Trump was cured so quickly with the use of these clonal antibodies... at this point, we have very effective treatments for Covid. They may not be completely distributed yet... But it feels to me like we are really winding down on the whole Covid thing.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E12 (2020-11-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 25:44 SUPPORT

“I think COVID is going to be a distant memory by next summer... once the vaccine is widely available... things are going to snap back very fast... I think the whole world is going to be like Tel Aviv for a few months... people could ask, wait, why was it again that Trump lost?”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E12 (2020-11-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 22:29 OPPOSE

“I don't think you ever get there... after 9-11, the TSA emerged, and American travel never went back to the way it was before. I think there will be a lot about the way we live that's going to be permanently scarred and permanently changed here for a while... I don't think we should kid ourselves that we're going to go back to, quote unquote, normal.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E12 (2020-11-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 24:31 OPPOSE

“I think Friedberger is right. I think that the best we'll get back to is sort of this 80% state, and I don't think it happens until probably 2022 and maybe 2023... we have to ramp up now billions of vaccine production. This is a non-trivial path.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E23 (2021-02-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:01 SUPPORT · horizon 2mo

“I think it's April, David, to your point of when this goes back to normal.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E23 (2021-02-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 58:12 SUPPORT · horizon 3mo

“In six weeks, I think a lot of those restrictions are going to fall by the wayside, because the supply is going to completely outstrip the nonsensical restrictions and prioritization methods we put in place. ... We're going to be oversupplied by May. We're going to have far more shots than there will be demand.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E24 (2021-03-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 17:18 SUPPORT · horizon 3mo

“So if the government would just get out of the way, let everyone who wants to get a vaccine get one without worrying about making sure the exact right person in the exact right line gets one first. This thing will be over by Memorial Day, over.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E24 (2021-03-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 32:15 OPPOSE

“I said this and I still firmly believe in, I think we're now seeing it play out, which is that the fear that gets created by the actual crisis will persist in terms of the subconscious behavior of the population for a long period of time. That's what happened after 9-11.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E24 (2021-03-06) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 35:47 OPPOSE

“I think it's pretty reasonable that individuals would still be afraid, you know, because I think we learned over the last year that we can't trust the institutions that are supposed to tell us in an objective way”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E25 (2021-03-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 9:21 SUPPORT · horizon 2mo

“I think we're skating out of this thing. ... in 45 days or so, we're going to get to a point that we're starting to skate out of this thing and kind of call it a day”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E25 (2021-03-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:48 SUPPORT · horizon 2mo

“Biden's speech really begged the question of why we still need this $2 trillion bill if COVID is going to be over in May”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E27 (2021-03-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:06:31 SUPPORT · horizon 2mo

“COVID is over. ... By the way, how right were we? I think it was like two or three pods ago, we were saying that COVID would be over by Memorial Day.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E27 (2021-03-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:06:40 SUPPORT · horizon 2mo

“Even in California, Gavin Newsom basically has finally capitulated to logic and everybody can get a shot now as of April 15th. ... Which means by May 15th, everybody who wants to get vaccinated will be vaccinated.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E28 (2021-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 38:38 SUPPORT

“COVID is going to be over in May. I mean, everything is trending the right way.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E29 (2021-04-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 13:20 SUPPORT · horizon 6mo

“you know, the economy is going to be booming again, Covid is going to be over, people will probably forget”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E29 (2021-04-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:02:12 OPPOSE

“And because some number of people will continue to have Covid, we're going to have Covid in the United States for years to come. It is not going to go to zero.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E30 (2021-04-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:11:06 SUPPORT

“most of the variants that the press keeps reporting with alarm that are somehow that basically are going to be vaccine proof, they turn out not to be. ... Very shortly, there comes out a new article basically saying that the vaccines work.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E31 (2021-05-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 11:51 SUPPORT

“when I was in Austin, every restaurant is at 110 capacity. The locals they were like, I can't get a reservation for a week or two. The town is packed, everybody in the country is going to Austin in Miami, because they've just learned that Austin and Miami have officially declared if you have the vaccine, you can go have your life.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E31 (2021-05-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 13:46 OPPOSE

“I do think that the subconscious training, the fear factor that's been kind of, you know, built into us over the last year, year and a half, is going to take a while to kind of train our way out of ... And I think this is like what, again, I said it like four times before, but this is what happened after 9-11, and it lasted for years. And, you know, we still have ridiculous TSA processes.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E31 (2021-05-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 7:32 OPPOSE

“we printed a negative 0.6% GDP growth in Europe. So to your point, with all the vaccines that are out there, with all of the logic and all of the science, not being able to just take the mask off and get back to life as normal was negative 0.6% GDP growth in a quarter where they also printed hundreds of billions of dollars. ... every forecast I saw had from the smartest folks saying Q1 GDP would be on a run rate to be around 10%. It would be one of the best in history. It was only 1.6%. So we're on a 6.4% GDP growth run rate.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E31 (2021-05-01) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 3:06 OPPOSE

“half the country wouldn't wear a mask at the beginning of the pandemic. And now the other half of the country won't take them off at its end. ... But it's actually destructive because it's performatively sending the signal to people that the vaccines don't work. And we have a third of the country today is still vaccine hesitant. And this is not helping.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E32 (2021-05-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 30:58 SUPPORT

“But when T0, the rate of transmission is in freefall everywhere, and now we've learned that outdoor spread is not an issue, I don't support restricting people's freedom for a reason that's not rooted in science.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E32 (2021-05-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 40:11 SUPPORT

“So the emergency has passed. We still have COVID, but it is not an emergency.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E35 (2021-06-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 42:55 SUPPORT

“I think it's intellectually correct to say that anybody who over the age of 12 who wants a vaccine could get it and anybody who's in a high risk group certainly now has had over six months to get a vaccine. So we're basically done.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E36 (2021-06-18) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:56 SUPPORT

“I mean, if comedy is tragedy plus time, I think that this is a great moment for us to reflect on. Like, I think we're going to go back to normal pretty quick.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E36 (2021-06-18) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 53:41 OPPOSE

“And so this brings up this big question, which is like we've now got the kind of psychic shadow of Covid that's going to cast a very long shadow. ... You know, it's going to bring up this whole series of challenges and questions I foresee for the next couple of months, at least, and maybe for several years about what's fair and what's right.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E36 (2021-06-18) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 57:10 OPPOSE

“Which is that we wouldn't let, you know, all the special rules and restrictions lift until there were zero cases of Covid. And we all know that's never going to happen. Covid will always be around in the background. And just to add a layer to what's happening here in California is, yeah, on June 15th, we lifted the restrictions, but Governor Newsom has not given up his emergency powers. And he says he will keep them until Covid has been extinguished. So he's now embraced zeroism on behalf of this sort of authoritarianism.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E36 (2021-06-18) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 55:29 OPPOSE · horizon 12mo

“It'll take a year to sort all these things out because they'll all get prosecuted or not prosecuted, but litigated. And they're going to go to court.”