iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:27:08

The thing I most worry about with respect to tariffs is if it does create a new revenue source for the federal government, it gives the federal government another crutch to keep spending up.

Gavin Baker oppose ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:23:44

I am inclined to think that he is much more sensitive to the market than he lets on.

Sacks oppose ×1 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:16:13

And what we're seeing now across the board is generating about $300 billion a year of additional tariff revenue that goes to help balancing the budget. So $300 billion a year over 10 years is $3 trillion. That is a big number.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 8:37

I have issues with the spending, and that's not been resolved. So like I said before, here we are, folks. My full-throated endorsement will come around when Doge actions are taken seriously and or the White House puts pressure on Congress to take action on spending.

The Big Beautiful Bill is doing, it's oriented toward growth stimulation. Everything that we can do to stimulate more capital investment in the United States is embodied in the tax law as part of that bill. So with the growth coming out of the Big Beautiful Bill, and if we continue to go through the cuts with decisions, I'm very optimistic that we're going to get back on the right path.

Gavin Baker support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 12:30

Now that rates have gone up and don't seem like they're you know, going down anytime soon, the deficit does matter and it really matters. And you can kind of run a couple of scenarios, but like pick your metric. If the deficit kind of continues at current levels and we were to refinance the debt at the prices that David was talking about, it's only a few years before spending on interest is significantly larger than spending on Medicare and Medicaid or Social Security or the military.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 8:57

At 3.3%, which is the current average rate we're paying across $36 trillion, we have a run rate interest expense. So just the money we're paying each year on the interest of the outstanding debt is $1.2 trillion a year. And if the spike's up to 5% from 3.3, we're talking about nearly $2 trillion a year in interest expense.

Gavin Baker oppose ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 3:06

there was maybe three months where Trump said he did not care about the stock market. But now he's back to quoting the market at all time highs. Yes. He clearly cares and is clearly very sensitive to market feedback.

So this is where details do matter. I think there is a willingness and a, you know, discipline problem on both parties, and I think maybe he can help fix that. The second thing is that we have these arcane rules, particularly in the Senate, that you need 60 votes in many ways to cut things, except through very hacky methods. And that's a reality.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E234 · 2025-07-04 ▶ 51:19

And it's probably important to then say, well, what would a boundary condition be? I don't think the boundary condition is the dollar. I actually don't think the boundary condition is the debt.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E234 · 2025-07-04 ▶ 26:51

But the immediate reaction to this bill, I think that Elon is having, is the same that I've had, and it is the same that Senator Johnson had, and it is the same that many others have had, which is what the F are we doing? We are in a fiscal emergency in this country and we're not addressing it.

Chamath reversal ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 14:01

Economically, at the same time, you now have the stock market back at all-time highs. You have interest rates incredibly starting to compress, even in the absence of the Federal Reserve willing to act on data. You're projecting economic supremacy.

What if actually AI can increase productivity and regrow GDP faster than expectations, right? And perhaps that's one of the reasons why interest rates might not be quite as high as you might expect, given some of the trends that you guys have talked about.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E229 · 2025-05-24 ▶ 23:09

What he is saying is that there is increasing risk that that trade unwinds. When that trade unwinds, what you're going to have are net sellers of up to, as Friedberg said, a trillion plus dollars of US treasuries.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E229 · 2025-05-24 ▶ 24:03

And remember, if you look at the historical perspective, when the global reserve currency nation sees their debt sell-off, it usually is part of a global sell-off that happens. It's not just the US that gets affected. And any one of these markets can cause a cataclysmic follow-on to the rest of the global financial markets. Like if Japan sells off too much, we are going to start to see a lot of unraveling happening.

Chamath reversal ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E229 · 2025-05-24 ▶ 31:47

I think what's going to happen is the bond market will sensitize this budget at real rates. They're not going to use the 3.6 that Friedberg pointed to. They're just going to re-underwrite this at five, five and a quarter, five and a half. That is a very different risk exposure, I think.

Chamath reversal ×3 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E229 · 2025-05-24 ▶ 8:17

Today, the 10-year is around 4.5 percent. At the rate in which it's escalating since Liberation Day, by the end of this year, we're going to be past 5 percent. The 30-year is on a rate now to get past 6.25, maybe even reach 6.5 percent.

unless you're willing to make serious systemic changes to things like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, you're not going to solve any of these problems. And here's the sad reality is nobody is willing to do that.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E228 · 2025-05-17 ▶ 48:29

The bill ultimately yields no real change in the annual deficit. The annual deficit could climb to $2.5 trillion, being added to the federal debt load every single year going forward. In fact, if you look at the Treasury yields, the 30-year is now kissing 5%.

when the market did go down a lot, the government did budge and said, hey, we need to step in here.

Chamath reversal ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 25:16

I mean, if we're in a sustained period of four to five percent rates, I mean, we should talk about that at some point, but there's huge implications to the economy if this thing stays where it is, huge.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E225 · 2025-04-26 ▶ 5:53

It was the fact that everyone realized that Bessent, Trump are not going to let trade come to a standstill. They're not going to let the whole global economy grind to a halt. That they're going to have to do something. And I think that the read is that they're making the indications that they're going to get deals done, which means that their intention is to make sure that the market doesn't tank.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E225 · 2025-04-26 ▶ 2:42

So the question is, is there a put here? I mean, my honest answer is no. And the simple reason is, if you look at where we are, the stock market is back to where we were in like May or August of last year. And if you had said that we would have upended 50 years of economic policy and the markets would only be off 500 or 600 basis points, I would have been shocked. So there's no reason for a put.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E223 · 2025-04-11 ▶ 16:14

In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack. And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy. Normally, when you see an acute reaction in the bond market, the underlying reason tends to be some financial calamity in a participant. What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund.

For serious countries, for the United States, the pattern is that when the world gets riskier, the bonds go down in yield and the currency goes up in value, because people come for the safe haven. When you're a country like Argentina, then the assets all move together. Falling stock prices go with higher bond yields, go with a weakening currency.