📈 The equity beta trade is done — software back at fair value, alpha only from selection
Brad Gerstner's call after the 2023 melt-up: internet and software multiples went from ~70% above normal to ~30% below normal and are now back at the trailing ten-year average, so the positive arbitrage of 2022 has been squeezed out and public markets are close to fair value. The global-macro beta trade has largely played out; from here returns come from picking individual winners against individual losers rather than from index exposure.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 54.6 WATCH
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT IGV
expression · bearish equities
MISS
outcome · R -20.9% · α -42.2%
2024-08-11
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
IGV ·
SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
LONG
GREEN 71.0
← stronger than this idea (28.5)
QQQ ·
It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
LONG
GREEN 67.3
← stronger than this idea (28.5)
also touching these tickers, same direction: The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026 19 (IGV)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT IGV (primary play). IGV rose 20.9% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -20.9% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +21.3%
→ α = -20.9 − (+21.3) = -42.2%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +0.3% — did IGV move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Brad Gerstner, Chamath, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-08-11)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | IGV | etf | PRIMARY | the software/internet multiple series he explicitly says is back at its 10-year average |
| ▼ SHORT | QQQ | etf | adjacent | the beta he says has already been captured |
| ▼ SHORT | SPY | etf | adjacent | broad index expression of 'close to fair value, no more beta trade' |
Mention log
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=0.95 · n=22
· E141 (2023-08-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:11:07
SUPPORT
“But I would say a lot of the positive arbitrage that we saw in 22 has been squeezed out of the public markets, and we're close to fair value. So now if you want to generate alpha, this is going to be about picking individual winners versus individual losers.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E156 (2023-12-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 43:01
OPPOSE
“If you believe that the 10-year is gonna go back down to, I don't know, this 2.5, 3% range, and if you believe that growth is re-accelerating, then I think there is room for this number, the 5.8 number, to at least grow into the long-term average, which is 7.8.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E189 (2024-07-26) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 7:49
SUPPORT
“The multiples that we have right now are not that insane. I mean, I think the long-term median software multiple is around a seven. So, you know, you see here the mid-growth median 7.7. We're about tracking at the historical pre-COVID mean, and we had that really frothy bubbly period in 2020, and 2021, and that's clearly over.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -49.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E141 2023-08-11 | init | +40.1 | 40.1 | E141 born by Brad Gerstner (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.95] |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -1.6 | 38.5 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -1.5 | 35.5 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -1.4 | 32.7 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -1.3 | 31.4 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | reinforce | +14.2 | 43.1 | E151 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.89] |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -1.7 | 41.4 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | reinforce | +13.3 | 54.6 | E156 Chamath support x3 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E156 2023-12-08 | oppose | -10.6 | 44.0 | E156 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.89] |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -1.8 | 42.2 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -1.7 | 40.5 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -1.6 | 38.9 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -1.6 | 37.4 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -1.5 | 35.9 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -1.4 | 34.4 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -1.4 | 33.1 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -1.3 | 31.7 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -1.3 | 30.5 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -1.2 | 29.2 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.1 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | reinforce | +10.5 | 27.0 | E181 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84] |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | reinforce | +10.6 | 30.9 | E189 Sacks support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.89] |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.2 | 29.6 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E191 silent |