🤖 Consumption-based software pricing destroys the business — Snowflake is the case study

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-06-21 → 2026-06-21 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT SNOW (primary play). SNOW rose 8.7% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -8.7% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +25.8% → vs SPY = -8.7 − (+25.8) = -34.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +17.1% — did SNOW move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 45%

1 scoring event · 100% of moves

+35.0 → net +35.0

⏳ decay drained -29.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one