+0.0
net board stance
what this means
104.62
-0.7% · close 2026-09-08
-0% / +6% / -11%
1m / 3m / 12m
-24%
vs SPY since 2024-10-18
51%
of 52w range · -10.7% off high
0/3
hit rate as primary · α -33
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on DIS
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 1 partial / 2 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.17, average α -33.2. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -38.2% | -37.9 | 2022-05-31 |
| 📈 Premium-IP media rerates - Iger's Disney and Warner's library | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +5.7% | -20.4 | 2023-12-24 |
| 📈 Crony managerialism: debt-funded buybacks and EPS-linked comp produce marginal companies | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -28.4% | -51.7 | 2025-02-02 |
| 📈 Hollywood's strikes are a fight over a shrinking pie | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +32.4% | +10.4 | 2024-07-27 |
| 📈 Disney keeps politicizing its franchises and keeps flopping | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -17.2% | -41.2 | 2025-01-13 |
| 📈 Generative video (Veo 3) collapses Hollywood inside a year | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -145.3% | -171.1 | 2026-06-21 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding DIS, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Like V03, which we haven't really spoke about, is going to destroy Hollywood. Like in the next year, like Hollywood is done, I think.
The way executive comp typically works at the board level at public companies is you hire these comp consultants and the comp consultants come in and they use comparables, which basically means let's do what everyone else does.
Sundar being a hired gun, not having founder authority to your point, Friedberg
it's a really important sign that founder led companies with these voting rights, you know, have the ability to make these sorts of hard decisions that it might be very difficult for a management by committee group to make.
I bet you if she got paid $1 in her health care and she had to get to $80 a share, I bet you that would be an $80 stock price.
Then you got crony capitalism. You got these companies that have been around for a hundred years. The value was created by people long dead. ... they pay themselves as much comp as they can possibly justify. Whether or not they create any value for the shareholder. That's what we saw at GM.
So right now what we are doing is we are not motivating CEOs to run great companies. We're motivating CEOs to understand financial arbitrage. The result will be crappier companies that diminish American exceptionalism. That is the only outcome.
it's not just a Bob Iger Disney thing, but this has become a standard in Hollywood that the DEI movement has so deeply affected the intentionality
my pick for Business Loser of 2023 was Disney. And it seems like they haven't learned anything from the horrible year they've just had.
Disney is going to launch their own Dolly-type stable diffusion product where you can do this. Put yourself on a Star Wars character.... It doesn't matter if they're good or not, it's their IP.
you have to question the wisdom of the executives at Disney who, you know, could have left this material alone. They didn't have to go here, but they did decide to go here. They did decide to do a remake and they changed all these things. Why even bother, you know, all you're going to do is ruin the public's perception of the original.
Right now, I'm going to ride it out. I think their IP collection is amazing.
I think this is one of the fundamental things that the unions and Hollywood have not yet grok-ed completely, which is they're not fighting each other. They're fighting TikTok, YouTube, podcasts, and people making their own content.
Well, both the beer industry and Hollywood are both the shrinking industries. And so when you got unions demanding more and more and more of a shrinking pie, something is going to break.
You guys saw the latest Disney earnings release and Eiger said, we are going to consider selling Nat Geo and a bunch of other channels. There may actually be a spinoff because content creation for that mid tier or that tail no longer makes sense.
And then my second thought is like, I just think unions in general are probably not a very effective way to get these concessions anymore versus the tax that the union members pay.
I bought the stock, and it's the one thing in my JTrading portfolio I've gotten crushing on. That and Warner Brothers Discovery. I made two entertainment bets on what I think are the two best companies.
the fact that Disney has been decaying for the past year is more emblematic of the fact that they've gotten into this social culture war and half the population of America said, we're not going to support your business like they did to Bud Light
Really? I trust Disney implicitly.
So look, whether you believe that is a problem or not, what I'm saying is this has been a brand disaster for Disney getting involved with DeSantis this way.
But man, Warner Media has a lot to contend with. And, you know, they could end up being a real challenger to Disney in the years ahead.
I'm telling you, Disney, Warner, which you talked about before, and Facebook are three of my big ones.
and the advantage Disney has is the rewatchability of their content. ... And the Star Wars content, as you guys know, you could rewatch Star Wars and Marvel.
I would say Disney has Marvel, and that's why. They have Marvel and Star Wars, and that's kept them extremely relevant.
When you own the franchise, it has value. Disney has shown that. You own the best franchise.