🤖 Electric bikes reshape cities
E-bikes extend the practical range of a bike ride enough to replace car trips, and are already changing European and Chinese cities — a major urban-transport shift.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 20.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG NIU
expression · bullish tech
WRONG
result · return -74.4% · vs SPY -64.9%
2022-07-16
born 2021-07-16 (E40) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-07-16 → 2022-07-16 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG NIU (primary play). NIU fell 74.4% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -74.4% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -9.4% → vs SPY = -74.4 − (-9.4) = -64.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-16)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Jason
tech 53% · n=56
· E40 (2021-07-16) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:16:47
SUPPORT
“With these electric bikes, instead of going 10 miles on the way there, it takes your 10 mile ride and just puts you at 25, but you're still burning the same number of calories. It's like augmenting. I really think that electric bikes are going to change cities like in a major way. They're already starting to in Europe and in China.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -16.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E40 2021-07-16 | init | +20.0 | 20.0 | E40 born by Jason (sentiment x2) |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.2 | 4.1 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.1 | 3.5 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E87 silent |