📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
At $1.4T (down from $2T+ IPO pop), SpaceX offers stacked optionality: Starlink as a cash machine possibly worth $1T alone within ~18 months, Elon Web Services compute rental at spot prices, Grok+Cursor frontier-model upside, and Starship enabling 20x satellite bandwidth per launch.
0
CONVICTION
GREEN
band
▲ LONG SPCX
expression · bullish equities
NOT MOVED YET
moved yet?
days to scoring · born 2026-06-19 (E277) → 2029-06-19
IS THIS A TRADE?
✅ Clears the bar: conviction 91.2.
LONG SPCX, NOT MOVED YET.
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2026-06-19)
Plays
📝 Expression memo
DERIVEDNEVER SCORED
how you'd actually express the thesis — All-In Alpha's opinion, not theirs, and nothing in it is scored
expand ▾
Expression memo — SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win
Generated 2026-08-27 (green at 88.0, EARLY flag, −14.9% excess vs SPY since re-birth 2026-06-19 · eval 2029-06-19). Everything below the "spoken core" is DERIVED — ALL-IN ALPHA'S OWN — NEVER SCORED. Verdicts and the scoreboard trace only to the spoken plays.
The spoken core (what IS scored)
- SPCX (primary) — IPO'd 2026-06-12 at $135, day-one close $161, peaked ~$200, round-tripped to ~$150. The idea is scored on this and nothing else.
- ARKX (adjacent) — diluted space-economy basket.
The besties' stacked-optionality case: Starlink cash machine ($11.4B rev, +50%, 10M subs → "hundreds of millions" per Jason, E274), EWS (Anthropic paying $1.25B/month for Colossus — $15B/yr, "added a Starlink in revenue," E274), Grok+Cursor (Composer 2.5 Pareto-dominant after 3 weeks on Colossus 2, Gavin E274), Starship rapid reusability (Gavin: "a year or two," E274), and Chamath's underwriting path ($25-30B '26 rev → 40-45 → doubling; terrestrial DCs alone $100-200B rev by 2030-32, E274).
Second-order beneficiaries (derived)
- The Colossus supply chain: every EWS dollar is a buildout dollar — NVDA GPUs (but that's the capex idea's turf), behind-the-meter power workarounds Chamath described in E281 (mobile turbines, Bloom-style onsite natgas → the natgas-powers-ai idea already holds that lane), and Tesla Megapods (Chamath: "we would be enormous buyers... 90-day build cycle," E278) — TSLA exposure to SpaceX's buildout is also the tesla-second-act merger lane (Chamath: merged "by end of 2026," E272/E277).
- Index-flow mechanics: early index inclusion (E280) means passive bid grows with each staged lockup that clears without breaking the stock — Gavin's anti-lockup-short case (E278: everyone could already sell every 6 months; half of employees bought at IPO).
- Orbital compute (Gavin's math, E278: $40B/GW in space vs $60B+ terrestrial and diverging; point prediction H2'28–H1'30): there is no pure-play — SPCX itself is the orbital-compute call option.
Supplier / product-level drivers (derived)
- Watch EWS concentration risk become EWS diversification: Gavin expects "partner to become partners" (E274). A second anchor tenant (Google was named as the likeliest buyer of Elon's compute) would de-risk the $15B/yr better than any Starlink quarter.
- Starlink competition is the soft underbelly the besties themselves flagged (Jason, E277: "the next two or three competitors are coming right behind him").
- Cursor data moat: proprietary coding tokens > public internet (Gavin, E274) — model-quality prints (Composer releases topping leaderboards) are the leading indicator for the AI segment re-rating.
Options angles (derived)
- The −15% post-IPO drawdown with a 3-year eval window is the textbook long-dated call setup: LEAPs (2028s when listed) express Chamath's "grow into the valuation" path with defined risk, instead of tying up cash in common at 60-70x revenue.
- IPO-price gravity: $135-150 is where retail got filled and where it has held — short puts at/below the IPO price are the "get paid to catch the knife where the demand lives" expression. Assignment = owning SPCX at better than IPO terms.
- Post-IPO options are young: IV is rich around lockup dates — spreads over naked longs.
What kills it (invalidation — watch these, don't rationalize)
- Anthropic's 90-day cancellation clause on the EWS deal (E274) — the single sharpest revenue cliff in the story.
- A lockup wave that breaks $135 and stays there (deal-price-break selling is mechanical — Gavin's Cerebras lesson, E278).
- Starship rapid-reusability slipping past the "year or two" consensus.
- Starlink sub growth decelerating while competitors ship.
- The idea's own eval: 2029-06-19. If conviction decays out of green on silence, the memo is stale — it does not refresh itself.
Mention log newest first
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E296 (2026-11-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:00:06
SUPPORT
“The market rate, and it's probably not just double, it could probably triple. So whatever revenue you see on SpaceX's balance sheet from Anth could 2 to 3X, and Anth would have no choice except to immediately capitulate and take the higher price.”
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E295 (2026-10-30) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 12:53
SUPPORT
“And then that gets sold to SpaceX, and then SpaceX turns around, and they're making, you know, an 83% margin on that chip spend because they're kind of looking at a five-year depreciation. So they spent $10 billion on Colossus One, five-year life, $2 billion a year depreciation. And so that's kind of the cost per year, but then they're making $1.25 billion a month on Colossus.”
Gavin Baker
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 67% · n=9
· E285 (2026-08-14) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:33:52
SUPPORT
“Grok 4.6 is Pareto dominant on a lot of measures... very few of these investors talk about Grok at all... Maybe people should start to consider Grok when they think about SpaceX. [And] there's a lot ahead for SpaceX — the SpaceX story isn't over.”
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 48% · n=22
· E284 (2026-08-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 29:54
SUPPORT
· horizon 42mo
“now you have a company at 1.4 trillion that I think if you take a three or four year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation”
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E284 (2026-08-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 26:34
SUPPORT
· horizon 18mo
“Starlink is just an unbelievable juggernaut cash machine... $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA [this quarter]... The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within 18 months. That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what Elon is doing.”
Sacks
equities 44% · n=96
· E284 (2026-08-08) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 24:57
SUPPORT
“I thought it was a very bullish earnings call. I was a little bit surprised that the stock went down... not only was it a beat and raise, but Elon spoke to a lot of their plans — Starship paves the way for the V3 satellite... 20 times more capacity per launch.”
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 48% · n=22
· E280 (2026-07-11) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 12:22
SUPPORT
“the SpaceX IPO where we were also investors and we also bought in the IPO, ... trading at $2 trillion on roughly $35 billion of forward revenue. ... I still think there's a lot of meat on the bone on SpaceX, on Anthropic, on OpenAI. ... these things can be compounders. They're going to compound at the rate they compound revenue. ... well over 30% for the next many years.”
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E278 (2026-06-26) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:13:22
SUPPORT
“There is very, very meager supply and there's effectively infinite demand. So that probably pulls forward the economic equation to want to go to space. But then again, that's going to prefer SpaceX and their compute stack and their compute decisions over the hyperscalers ... you're going to have a cost of an output token, I think terrestrially, particularly from the hyperscalers, be a little economically lopsided versus SpaceX once they get it to scale.”
Gavin Baker
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 67% · n=9
· E278 (2026-06-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:11:52
SUPPORT
“to stand up a one gigawatt data center, it's $35 billion in semiconductors and ... $25 billion of power and cooling equipment, and that is clearly inflationary ... When Starship is reusable, it's going to cost $5 billion to put a gigawatt of compute into space. ... you're $40 billion to put the gig into space. ... everybody who's a SpaceX investor or employee has had a chance to sell every six months for the last 10 years. ... Almost half the employees at SpaceX bought on the IPO.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -16.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E277 2026-06-19 | init | +20.0 | 20.0 | E277 born by Chamath (sentiment x2) |
| E278 2026-06-26 | reinforce | +18.0 | 38.0 | E278 Gavin Baker support x2 (new voice) |
| E278 2026-06-26 | reinforce | +9.3 | 47.3 | E278 Chamath support x2 |
| E279 2026-07-03 | decay | -0.9 | 46.4 | E279 silent |
| E280 2026-07-11 | reinforce | +12.1 | 58.4 | E280 Brad Gerstner support x2 (new voice) |
| E281 2026-07-18 | decay | -1.2 | 57.3 | E281 silent |
| E282 2026-07-24 | decay | -1.1 | 56.1 | E282 silent |
| E283 2026-07-31 | decay | -1.1 | 55.0 | E283 silent |
| E284 2026-08-08 | reinforce | +10.1 | 65.1 | E284 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E284 2026-08-08 | reinforce | +7.8 | 73.0 | E284 Sacks support x2 (new voice) |
| E284 2026-08-08 | reinforce | +7.3 | 80.3 | E284 Friedberg support x3 (new voice) |
| E284 2026-08-08 | reinforce | +3.0 | 83.2 | E284 Brad Gerstner support x2 |
| E285 2026-08-14 | reinforce | +2.5 | 85.7 | E285 Jason support x2 |
| E285 2026-08-14 | reinforce | +2.1 | 87.9 | E285 Sacks support x2 |
| E285 2026-08-14 | reinforce | +1.8 | 89.7 | E285 Gavin Baker support x2 |
| E286 2026-08-21 | decay | -1.8 | 87.9 | E286 silent |
| E287 2026-08-29 | decay | -1.8 | 86.1 | E287 silent |
| E288 2026-09-04 | decay | -1.7 | 84.4 | E288 silent |
| E289 2026-09-11 | decay | -1.7 | 82.7 | E289 silent |
| E290 2026-09-26 | decay | -1.7 | 81.1 | E290 silent |
| E291 2026-10-02 | reinforce | +2.3 | 83.4 | E291 Friedberg support x1 |
| E292 2026-10-10 | decay | -1.7 | 81.7 | E292 silent |
| E293 2026-10-17 | reinforce | +2.7 | 84.4 | E293 Sacks support x2 |
| E293 2026-10-17 | reinforce | +1.9 | 86.3 | E293 Chamath support x1 |
| E294 2026-10-23 | decay | -1.7 | 84.6 | E294 silent |
| E295 2026-10-30 | reinforce | +2.3 | 86.9 | E295 Friedberg support x2 |
| E296 2026-11-07 | reinforce | +2.4 | 89.2 | E296 Chamath support x3 |
| E296 2026-11-07 | reinforce | +1.9 | 91.2 | E296 Jason support x3 |