+0.0
net board stance
what this means
55.03
-0.2% · close 2026-09-08
-6% / -4% / +19%
1m / 3m / 12m
+16%
vs SPY since 2022-09-10
67%
of 52w range · -8.1% off high
1/2
hit rate as primary · α +5
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on PAVE
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 1 partial / 0 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.75, average α +4.8. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 Resilience beats efficiency - supply chains get de-centralized and reshored | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +16.9% | +1.0 | 2022-03-27 |
| 🏛️ Infrastructure trillions get captured by the contractors | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +13.9% | +8.6 | 2023-04-01 |
| 🏛️ Debt-ceiling standoff resolves — they raise it and keep spending | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +23.7% | +0.0 | 2024-01-20 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding PAVE, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
If it stops the CR process, it'll be effective to the tune of above $500 billion. It'll be half a trillion dollars effective.
Let me just state what I think about the downgrade. It's irrelevant. The S&P did it 13 years ago. Fitch is a marginal credit rating agency. They're at a minimum 13 years late.
So I am just an advocate for cutting revenue, because I do think it's the simplest way to force people, because the next time they go through these machinations and all this theater around a dead ceiling, they'll just have less revenue to play with, and it'll just become a harder and harder and harder problem.
That feels to me, and we did predict here that they would get this done, it does feel to me like this is some amount of progress, right?
They're going to have to raise the debt ceiling. That being said, I think they're going to be able to. Reuters had a report this morning that they're only 72 billion apart now in their positions, which is a relatively small amount. So my guess is they're going to work this out.
You know what happened? Absolutely fucking nothing. So I do think that this is another opportunity for the little red riding hoods to get their panties in a bunch. But these downgrades don't mean much of it.
the governments will keep spending. Inflation will be here. Assets will keep inflating. The M2 money supply will keep going up.
I'm with Friedberg. I think the majority case is a bunch of hand wringing and then they make a concession.
And there's going to be some concessions on spending. And ultimately, the debt ceiling will get extended. And that those concessions on spending will allow the Republican Party to save face with their voters and say, look, we got some concessions here.
My point is put this in the who cares bucket and get back to the facts. Friedberg mentioned it. We have a debt ceiling problem that's in the offing. Sacks mentioned it. We have a commercial real estate crisis.
So look, I think this is the biggest like black swan. It's not a black swan, but this is the biggest kind of elephant in the room right now.
And in that context, I think that people will him and ha, but ultimately, they'll capitulate, they will raise the debt ceiling, and they'll continue to fund this transition away from globalism.
So we have this interconnected world, this idea that we're de-globalizing. ... What we do doesn't impact anybody else. That ship has sailed a long time ago, and the Chinese see this.
the new war is the war on our dependency on dictators. We must have a race to resiliency.
trade creates economic wealth, but it also creates dependency, and we're realizing the downsides of having that dependency ... we are going to have to rethink all those trade relationships. You can't have trade without trust
I think the big trend for the next decade or two, everyone's going to have like an institutional memory of this ... you're going to see companies that are going to start to vertically integrate supply chains ... I think the near-term trend is in de-globalization. People making less capital-efficient decisions that create redundancy in supply chains. There's a lot of ways as investors to play that, by the way.
We have woken up from a delusion that we can intertwine our economies with rich and nuclear powered dictators in communist countries, both China and Russia. And now I think the great decoupling and the great independence is upon us with us moving semiconductors back on shore, going nuclear.
There's a term in Washington, which is called the Christmas tree bill. And the infrastructure bill is an example of that, which is this is not a directed shot on goal. What this is is a random tree that you go and hang little things on top of. ... And so to your point, the fact that Ryan can say there's 17 billion dollars allocated to something like ports, but it's unclear to him who's an expert in the space where that money goes and how it's spent gives us zero chance of figuring this out.
RY
Ryan Petersen
oppose ×2
▲ on
🏛️ Infrastructure trillions get captured by the contractors
E66 · 2022-02-05
▶ 39:57
There's $17 billion allocated to ports. I went and read it and I couldn't find any money that was going to be spent on building ports. It was like, study this. ... it's like things like, oh, each state must create our supply chain readiness report about it's like, what are you talking about? ... But like to then create studies and consultants, I don't know that any of it's going to hit the ground and shovel.
And so we have to make sure we follow through on that and that's successful. And the reason is that it gives us optionality. ... And so we have to invest in the United States. So the solution to all of these things is we cannot be overly dependent on any one country, any one shipping lane, any one product, any one natural resource. You just can't do that anymore.
RY
Ryan Petersen
oppose ×2
▲ on
🌍 Resilience beats efficiency - supply chains get de-centralized and reshored
E66 · 2022-02-05
▶ 26:52
In my view, that would be a shame if we we have the best companies in the world who need to be able to source raw materials, components, finished goods anywhere on planet Earth. And we should have a modern infrastructure that makes that possible instead of being like, oh, we can't trade with the rest of the world. So we're going to become like self-sufficient. ... But you're right. That might be an end result is people can't rely on these supply chains and start saying, hey, let's manufacture at home or let's manufacture in Latin America. Let's manufacture closer to home. To my perspective, that would be a shame.
I think I'm spending a lot of time and money actually trying to fortify America's supply chain. You guys know about some of the things that I'm doing. ... I'm not doing that from a moral perspective. I'm doing that from a practical capitalist perspective.
myself and Fortress, we did this deal a few, a year ago to bring this company public called MP Materials. And the whole idea was to start to build diversity in the supply chain, to build a decentralized supply of all kinds of things. ... we have massively under-invested in the level of infrastructure we need to support ourselves.
we don't need yesteryear's infrastructure. We don't need last century's infrastructure. New bridges and toll bridges or whatever nonsense is going to get inflated as a result of this recent infrastructure
the procurement process is the furthest thing from a free market where you essentially have these licensed people that are allowed to provide services. And so if you actually have the key critical input to making something possible, you have to get bundled in through contractors and subcontractors and general contractors who each take their five and 10 percent.