🤖 AlphaFold's open proteome kickstarts a drug-discovery wave
DeepMind publishing predicted structures for every human protein (plus 10 other species, scaling to 100M+ proteins) for free turns structure prediction from a bottleneck into a commodity input, which spawns a wave of new therapeutics companies and speeds variant/vaccine design. Google gets the reputational credit but gives the asset away, so the economic value accrues to biotech rather than to GOOGL.
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T 61 (GOOGL) · Google wins consumer AI via distribution 58 (GOOGL) · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 48 (GOOGL) · Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) 38 (GOOGL) · Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor 23 (GOOGL) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18 (GOOGL) · Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock 9 (GOOGL)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-07-23 → 2022-07-23 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG XBI (primary play). XBI fell 36.2% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -36.2% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -8.9% → vs SPY = -36.2 − (-8.9) = -27.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-23)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | XBI | etf | PRIMARY | equal-weight small/mid biotech — the closest listed proxy for 'hundreds of new drug companies' |
| ▲ LONG | GOOGL | stock | adjacent | owns DeepMind; the claim implies the option value is real even though this release was given away free |
| ▲ LONG | IBB | etf | adjacent | large-cap-weighted biotech; incumbents that would license the structural data |
Mention log newest first
“And that opens up a whole new area of research in medicine, gene therapy, and new things that we can think about targeting to fix a lot of these underlying diseases. ... It's an incredible example of how AlphaFold has been used to solve this really misunderstood or never really well understood aspect of biology that is at the root cause of so much of disease and creates all this opportunity for medicine and therapeutics, research and discovery.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -36.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E41 2021-07-23 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E41 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.7 | 40.3 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.6 | 38.7 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.5 | 37.2 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.5 | 35.7 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.4 | 34.2 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.9 | 22.8 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | reinforce | +16.5 | 24.7 | E85 Friedberg support x3 |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.9 | 22.8 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E88 silent |