NFLX

Netflix, Inc.

stock all instruments
+0.0
net board stance what this means
76.5
-2.2% · close 2026-09-08
+3% / -6% / -38%
1m / 3m / 12m
+24%
vs SPY since 2022-03-26
15%
of 52w range · -39.4% off high
hit rate as primary

Where we stand — 0 live ideas

No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Jason
Jason w=0.97 equities
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E166
+4
pushes up
Sacks
Sacks w=0.89 equities
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E166
+4
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.87 equities
3 ideas (0 live) · last heard E208
+2
pushes up
Chamath
Chamath w=0.84 equities
3 ideas (0 live) · last heard E166
-2
pushes down

Track record on NFLX

No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney ▲ LONG adjacent MISS -38.2% -37.9 2022-05-31
📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress ▼ SHORT adjacent HIT +42.3% +42.6 2022-05-31
🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost ▲ LONG adjacent MISS +1.6% -22.0 2025-02-16

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding NFLX, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost E208 · 2024-12-20 ▶ 1:29:25
with Genesis, as you can see here, you can type in a prompt and it renders this extraordinary video that also has underlying it, the three-dimensional objects that make up the video.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost E174 · 2024-04-12 ▶ 1:03:59
I think that musicians, artists, consumers, are going to start to use these tools in a really prolific way, given how good they are now
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost E166 · 2024-02-16 ▶ 50:56
There's going to be this whole new model of AI generated content. The real winners are going to be the technology platforms that bring these tools in a simple, intuitive way
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost E166 · 2024-02-16 ▶ 42:18
But this is going to be revolutionary for independent film. ... This is going to revolutionize it because it will bring the cost down close to zero.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost E166 · 2024-02-16 ▶ 39:47
This is going to revolutionize pornography. I think it's the first place. No, no, I'm not saying it as a joke. I think that's where you're going to see this first
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost E166 · 2024-02-16 ▶ 25:47
if you put something like this out there to the public and said, it's 20 bucks a month to do this, or 50 bucks a month, you can have a lot of consumers who want to buy this product. So when I see this, I think people are going to pay for this.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney E77 · 2022-04-23 ▶ 1:00:15
and the advantage Disney has is the rewatchability of their content. ... And the Star Wars content, as you guys know, you could rewatch Star Wars and Marvel.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney E77 · 2022-04-23 ▶ 1:00:06
I would say Disney has Marvel, and that's why. They have Marvel and Star Wars, and that's kept them extremely relevant.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress E77 · 2022-04-23 ▶ 56:32
And the network advantage in the streaming model is content and consumers. So you have better content, you get more consumers, you get more money from consumers, you spend more on content. At some point, you get diminishing returns in that network model.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress E77 · 2022-04-23 ▶ 55:58
the first rule of capitalism says that excess returns will always get competed away. So, you know, Netflix had the run of the place where they were an effective monopoly. ... And so all of those returns will now get spread across seven or eight or nine competitors, which means that just by definition, mathematically, Netflix can't win the way that they used to.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney E64 · 2022-01-22 ▶ 1:10:36
When you own the franchise, it has value. Disney has shown that. You own the best franchise.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney E64 · 2022-01-22 ▶ 1:10:07
These archives are going to be super valuable. And I don't think we even know how to value these archives yet because if you look at the Marvel archive or the Star Wars archive, these things just keep printing money year after year.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress E64 · 2022-01-22 ▶ 1:01:20
when you have more competition, the consumer does win. It contains prices. It just doesn't contain asset inflation, which does impact the shareholders of these companies.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×2 ▼ on 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress E60 · 2021-12-23 ▶ 1:02:16
When that WarnerMedia deal gets done, I think that's the juggernaut stock you want to own. It's going to have an incredible library to compete with Disney.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×1 ▲ on 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney E60 · 2021-12-23 ▶ 1:02:03
I like HBO Max more than Disney Plus. ... Disney Plus doesn't seem to have a monopoly for me. HBO Max has such a depth of content.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney E60 · 2021-12-23 ▶ 1:01:30
I think that $118 million is going to go to $300 million. Because they announced so much content from the Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, Disney ecosystem that is coming this year and next year. ... Like, this library is going to have a ridiculous 2022
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney E43 · 2021-08-06 ▶ 1:24:39
Their whole business, they're going to catch up to Netflix and then they're going to roll Netflix. They're going to roll right over Netflix.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney E34 · 2021-05-31 ▶ 51:17
I'm not disputing that people won't pay $9.99. What I'm disputing is the denominator of what they're paying for is increasing so fast that no one piece of content matters, Jason.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney E34 · 2021-05-31 ▶ 51:49
And so Disney's content library is so powerful for that particular demographic, basically the demographic of anyone with children, that it's an instant on kind of moment.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney E34 · 2021-05-31 ▶ 50:53
I think for the top tier IP, like you can't displace a Disney and they are growing portfolio of IP and those things are high margin. And, you know, having 250 to 500 million people paying you monthly has never existed in the history of humanity.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress E34 · 2021-05-31 ▶ 45:45
And there's 50 subscription services, each with their own silo and vulcanization of content. ... And it's going to be a nasty battle for the next 10 years.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress E34 · 2021-05-31 ▶ 50:42
And so the point of all of that is that content costs are going to continue to go down, which means the economics are going to go down. The margins are not that good. ... And so it's all just a commodity that almost doesn't matter.