🤖 Own the top 30% of global tech and hold it five to ten years

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.41 · n=17 · E29 (2021-04-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 18:28 SUPPORT · horizon 60mo

“I believe that if you own an index of the top 30% of technology companies in the world today and you're willing to hold them for five to 10 years, you will be incredibly well rewarded.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E49 (2021-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 51:39 SUPPORT · horizon 360mo

“If you take an index of the three and a half trillion dollars today and said, you know what, these guys today are going to be worth more than the $46 trillion market cap of all the other public companies that sit today in the next 20 or 30 years, that's a pretty good way to kind of place your money over a 30 year horizon. I'm going to go ahead and put as much money as I can into the index of the private companies and expect that they're going to be worth more than $46 trillion in 30 years. I'm going to make a 10-bagger. ... But the reality is the index of companies today, I would be willing to bet 20 to 30 years from now, is worth more than the $46 billion of all the public companies today.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E49 (2021-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:07 SUPPORT

“Well, I think it's because of what we just talked about, which is that these companies, by and large, are growing at incredibly fast rates, and they are replacing legacy incumbents that are growing very slowly or not at all and who have basically won for a long time with inferior products. ... I think what we're seeing is a wholesale replacement of the economy from the old to the new. That's why these companies will do well.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E51 (2021-10-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 22:26 SUPPORT

“There's a class of tech companies, right, like Amazon, sorry, like Microsoft, Oracle, Google, where you are actually seeing an Apple, you're getting dividends and you're getting share buybacks ... And I don't see how portfolios are going to shed those assets.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E52 (2021-10-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 44:41 SUPPORT · horizon 120mo

“I don't think that this is necessarily the peak. It may be the beginning of a continuing disruption cycle that we're going to see kind of persist for the next decade or two ... I think we could even see an acceleration from here.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E52 (2021-10-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 46:55 SUPPORT

“we live in an age of accelerating technological progress, so why wouldn't the returns from that accelerating technological progress also be accelerating?”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E52 (2021-10-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 55:01 SUPPORT

“we may have underestimated its power is what we're sort of realizing collectively here today is that we've always thought that this thing is hitting all time highs. This might be the beginning, right?”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 54:59 SUPPORT

“And then you have these companies that are just so superb. ... And I'm talking about Microsoft, Google, Apple and Facebook, that now trade in many cases at some pretty deep discounts to their intrinsic value.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 59:28 SUPPORT

“Literally, the most vertically integrated business in history with a moat that no one will ever be able to catch up on. ... If you look at YouTube in the quarter, YouTube generated, this is insanity, YouTube is now operating at a nearly $30 billion revenue run rate.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E53 (2021-10-30) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 58:47 SUPPORT

“when you saw these quarterly earnings, there is no better business in the world than Google. ... Single-handedly par excellence, the most incredible money making machine that's ever been created, and a close second, as it turns out, is Microsoft.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E54 (2021-11-06) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 25:03 SUPPORT

“You have to remember, when Sequoia distributed Google, every single partner got Google shares. Now, had they held those shares, they wouldn't be saying any of this. ... he told me he had never sold a single share of Amazon that was distributed to him, and he had only sold a handful of shares of Google only to fund future capital requirements at Kleiner at the time. ... I think probably what Sequoia was saying is, man, I wish I had not sold my Google shares when they were distributed to me”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E55 (2021-11-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 59:37 SUPPORT · horizon 240mo

“Just buy productive assets, great businesses that have durability, and let them ride for 20 years. ... why trade the market when you can just buy great businesses, own stakes in them, and let it rest?”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E57 (2021-12-04) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 29:50 SUPPORT

“We had this happen in 2018 because in 2018 it looked like there was going to be inflation. ... Powell basically killed the market, he raised rates, and then it turned out he was completely wrong and China was okay and everything was fine, and then the market just completely violently snapped back. Again, this is what I'm saying, which is it's too early to tell whether this is just a short-term opportunity for people who have made a lot of money to de-risk.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E58 (2021-12-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 26:16 SUPPORT

“over the last 15 or 20 years, what was once a question is now definitive, which is that the things that are valuable tend to be technological, because they're super high margin, they grow really quickly, they compound, they create enormous cash flows at scale.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E65 (2022-01-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 47:39 SUPPORT

“the idea that markets bucket, quote unquote, growth stocks together, I think kind of obfuscates an important point, which is that some of the businesses in that category are real businesses that are going to succeed over the long run. And some of them are speculative and are likely to fail over the short run.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E87 (2022-07-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:00:37 SUPPORT · horizon 120mo

“And there are many businesses that are public that operate like that, that regardless of any of these turtles popping their head out, those businesses will perform well over the next decade.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E87 (2022-07-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:01:32 SUPPORT

“You know, I tend to agree with Friedberg. I mean, you find these businesses that you like, and if they appeal to you and you do your work, that's the most important thing.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.41 · n=17 · E118 (2023-03-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 46:42 SUPPORT

“Find five companies that you think are going to grow and earn more money, irrespective of the direction of rates and inflation. Own those and enjoy your life.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E139 (2023-07-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 30:29 SUPPORT · horizon 120mo

“And they think over the next 10 years, it's gonna go from 10 trillion to 25 trillion, which is still a great return.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E141 (2023-08-11) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 1:14:28 SUPPORT

“over a 20-year investment period, if you basically just buy the top 10 public tech stocks and at the end of each year rebalance to the top 10 at the end of the year, your multiple over that period of time is 24X.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E141 (2023-08-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:15:33 OPPOSE

“Why not top 20? Why not top 100? I mean, are you willing to say that for the next 10 years that you should only buy the top 10? What if over the next 10 years it's more of the field versus the next 20?”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E146 (2023-09-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:15:08 SUPPORT

“So unfortunately, that's going to hurt everything that's not the top seven tech companies. ... So it's really good for the magnificent seven. I think it's really bad for everything else.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E170 (2024-03-15) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 13:22 SUPPORT

“as these companies become successful again, as tech re-emerges again from this multi-year malaise, are folks going to find their voice or not?”