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⚡ IRA production credits flip climate-tech unit economics — capital floods in

The IRA's production credits (e.g. $1.25/gal for clean fuel at 50% emissions reduction, plus a penny per extra percent) turn businesses that were contribution-margin-questionable into profitable ones overnight, so venture and growth capital pours into climate tech, new energy materials and clean manufacturing. The open question is whether any of it survives the subsidy being removed.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 27.2 EMBER
EMBER
band · contested
▲ LONG ICLN
expression · bullish energy
MISS
outcome · R -27.5% · α -34.8%
2023-08-20
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG ICLN (primary play). ICLN fell 27.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -27.5% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +7.3%α = -27.5 − (+7.3) = -34.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    ▶ MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Sacks | opposed: Jason

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-08-20)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG ICLNetf PRIMARY broad clean-energy basket, the listed read-through on an IRA-driven capital wave
▲ LONG DARstock adjacent renewable-diesel producer — the literal beneficiary of the clean-fuel production credit Friedberg cites
▲ LONG PBWetf adjacent small/mid-cap clean-energy names, closest listed analogue to the venture-stage cohort Friedberg describes

Mention log

Friedberg
Friedberg energy w=0.78 · n=18 · E92 (2022-08-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:13:19 SUPPORT
“And so I personally think we are going to see a significant influx of venture capital and support for a lot of these climate tech and new energy material and manufacturing projects that otherwise may have been held back because the subsidy will kickstart.”
Chamath
Chamath energy w=0.55 · n=22 · E92 (2022-08-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:14:49 OPPOSE
“If you're not contribution margin positive today, free this bill in climate change and the bill is the only way that you get there.”
Jason
Jason energy w=1.00 · n=17 · E92 (2022-08-20) · positioning · strength 1 ▶ 1:09:20 OPPOSE
“And the thing I've learned after the first six months of investing in carbon, because we have a syndicate now with Molly Wood, who's working with me on this climate syndicate, we couldn't find a lot of great investments that made sense that weren't asset heavy.”
Chamath
Chamath energy w=0.55 · n=22 · E97 (2022-09-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 57:23 SUPPORT
“The IRA passed an incredible set of incentives, both for the producers of these things and for the end companies that actually deploy them. And so we've solved that problem, you know.”
Chamath
Chamath energy w=0.55 · n=22 · E105 (2022-11-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 28:16 SUPPORT
“But my belief, quite honestly, is that the reason the IRA was so important is that it is the most clarified piece of legislation we've seen that essentially puts all forms of energy on a level playing field and has the chance to get America to permanent energy independence.”
Sacks
Sacks energy w=0.94 · n=16 · E134 (2023-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:19:27 SUPPORT
“So first of all, one of our friends who's an energy investor, we should beep his name before he was telling me that the energy subsidies that were in the, you know, misnamed Inflation Reduction Act, it is like the biggest bonanza of all time. He said that the energy sector is going crazy now trying to figure out how to exploit these incentives. And his view is that although I think it was supposed to cost about $350 billion, he thought that it would ultimately cost the government somewhere around a trillion.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.78
1 scoring event · 35% of moves
+27.2 → net +27.2
Chamath
Chamath w=0.55
3 scoring events · 29% of moves
+15.9 / -6.5 → net +9.4
Sacks
Sacks w=0.94
1 scoring event · 25% of moves
+19.5 → net +19.5
Jason
Jason w=1.00
1 scoring event · 12% of moves
+0.0 / -9.6 → net -9.6

⏳ decay drained -26.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E92 2022-08-20 init +27.2 27.2 E92 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.78]
E92 2022-08-20 oppose -9.6 17.6 E92 Jason opposes x1
E92 2022-08-20 oppose -6.5 11.1 E92 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.55]
E93 2022-08-26 decay -0.4 10.6 E93 silent
E94 2022-09-01 decay -0.4 10.2 E94 silent
E95 2022-09-10 decay -0.4 9.8 E95 silent
E96 2022-09-17 decay -0.4 9.4 E96 silent
E97 2022-09-23 reinforce +7.4 16.8 E97 Chamath support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.55]
E98 2022-10-01 decay -0.7 16.1 E98 silent
E99 2022-10-07 decay -0.6 15.5 E99 silent
E100 2022-10-14 decay -0.6 14.9 E100 silent
E101 2022-10-22 decay -0.6 14.3 E101 silent
E102 2022-10-29 decay -0.6 13.7 E102 silent
E103 2022-11-05 decay -0.5 13.2 E103 silent
E105 2022-11-19 reinforce +8.5 21.7 E105 Chamath support x3 [w=0.55]
E106 2022-12-03 decay -0.9 20.8 E106 silent
E107 2022-12-10 decay -0.8 20.0 E107 silent
E108 2022-12-16 decay -0.8 19.2 E108 silent
E109 2022-12-24 decay -0.8 18.4 E109 silent
E110 2023-01-06 decay -0.7 17.7 E110 silent
E111 2023-01-13 decay -0.7 17.0 E111 silent
E112 2023-01-20 decay -0.7 16.3 E112 silent
E113 2023-01-27 decay -0.7 15.6 E113 silent
E114 2023-02-04 decay -0.6 15.0 E114 silent
E115 2023-02-11 decay -0.6 14.4 E115 silent
E116 2023-02-17 decay -0.6 13.8 E116 silent
E118 2023-03-03 decay -0.6 13.3 E118 silent
E119 2023-03-11 decay -0.5 12.8 E119 silent
E120 2023-03-17 decay -0.5 12.2 E120 silent
E121 2023-03-24 decay -0.5 11.8 E121 silent
E122 2023-03-31 decay -0.5 11.3 E122 silent
E123 2023-04-07 decay -0.5 10.8 E123 silent
E124 2023-04-14 decay -0.4 10.4 E124 silent
E125 2023-04-21 decay -0.4 10.0 E125 silent
E126 2023-04-28 decay -0.4 9.6 E126 silent
E128 2023-05-12 decay -0.4 9.2 E128 silent
E129 2023-05-19 decay -0.4 8.8 E129 silent
E130 2023-05-26 decay -0.4 8.5 E130 silent
E131 2023-06-02 decay -0.3 8.1 E131 silent
E132 2023-06-10 decay -0.3 7.8 E132 silent
E133 2023-06-16 decay -0.3 7.5 E133 silent
E134 2023-06-24 reinforce +19.5 27.0 E134 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.94]
E135 2023-07-01 decay -1.1 25.9 E135 silent
E136 2023-07-09 decay -1.0 24.9 E136 silent
E137 2023-07-14 decay -1.0 23.9 E137 silent
E139 2023-07-27 decay -1.0 22.9 E139 silent
E140 2023-08-04 decay -0.9 22.0 E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11 decay -0.9 21.1 E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18 decay -0.8 20.3 E142 silent