⚡ IRA production credits flip climate-tech unit economics — capital floods in
The IRA's production credits (e.g. $1.25/gal for clean fuel at 50% emissions reduction, plus a penny per extra percent) turn businesses that were contribution-margin-questionable into profitable ones overnight, so venture and growth capital pours into climate tech, new energy materials and clean manufacturing. The open question is whether any of it survives the subsidy being removed.
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ICLN (primary play). ICLN fell 27.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -27.5% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +7.3% → α = -27.5 − (+7.3) = -34.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Sacks | opposed: Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-08-20)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ICLN | etf | PRIMARY | broad clean-energy basket, the listed read-through on an IRA-driven capital wave |
| ▲ LONG | DAR | stock | adjacent | renewable-diesel producer — the literal beneficiary of the clean-fuel production credit Friedberg cites |
| ▲ LONG | PBW | etf | adjacent | small/mid-cap clean-energy names, closest listed analogue to the venture-stage cohort Friedberg describes |
Mention log
“And so I personally think we are going to see a significant influx of venture capital and support for a lot of these climate tech and new energy material and manufacturing projects that otherwise may have been held back because the subsidy will kickstart.”
“And the thing I've learned after the first six months of investing in carbon, because we have a syndicate now with Molly Wood, who's working with me on this climate syndicate, we couldn't find a lot of great investments that made sense that weren't asset heavy.”
“But my belief, quite honestly, is that the reason the IRA was so important is that it is the most clarified piece of legislation we've seen that essentially puts all forms of energy on a level playing field and has the chance to get America to permanent energy independence.”
“So first of all, one of our friends who's an energy investor, we should beep his name before he was telling me that the energy subsidies that were in the, you know, misnamed Inflation Reduction Act, it is like the biggest bonanza of all time. He said that the energy sector is going crazy now trying to figure out how to exploit these incentives. And his view is that although I think it was supposed to cost about $350 billion, he thought that it would ultimately cost the government somewhere around a trillion.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -26.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E92 2022-08-20 | init | +27.2 | 27.2 | E92 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.78] |
| E92 2022-08-20 | oppose | -9.6 | 17.6 | E92 Jason opposes x1 |
| E92 2022-08-20 | oppose | -6.5 | 11.1 | E92 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.55] |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | reinforce | +7.4 | 16.8 | E97 Chamath support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.55] |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.5 | 13.2 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | reinforce | +8.5 | 21.7 | E105 Chamath support x3 [w=0.55] |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | reinforce | +19.5 | 27.0 | E134 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.94] |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E142 silent |