← pool

📈 Opaque payment fee pools get competed to zero

Chamath's structural claim that fintechs (Stripe et al.) hunt opaque per-transaction revenue pools — interchange, and by analogy payment for order flow — and take them to zero to hand consumers the savings, which compresses the incumbents living off that hidden tax. Early, un-sized version of the thesis he later formalized as the V/MA short.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 29.3 EMBER
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT V
expression · bearish equities
MISS
outcome · R -8.8% · α -22.5%
2022-02-13
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2021-02-13 → 2022-02-13 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▼ SHORT V (primary play). V rose 8.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -8.8% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +13.8%α = -8.8 − (+13.8) = -22.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
    Stock-selection read: +5.0% — did V move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    ▶ MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-02-13)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT Vstock PRIMARY biggest listed beneficiary of the interchange/per-swipe fee stack he says goes to zero
▼ SHORT MAstock adjacent other half of the card-network duopoly with the same fee exposure

Mention log

Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E22 (2021-02-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 38:25 SUPPORT
“Well, I think more people do just because the technology companies that have come around, like Stripe and others, will eventually just try to take it to zero. ... when you find, to your point, these opaque pools of revenue, the innovation is just to give consumers power by taking these costs to zero.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E43 (2021-08-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:18:14 SUPPORT
“The comment on this, by the way, the most obvious one here, which I think is interesting, is the Shopify stripe debate. Because if you look inside the P&L of Shopify, an enormous line item now, about 350 million bucks a year is what they're paying to stripe. And, you know, there's going to be a lot of pressure over time to figure out what these big businesses want to do with respect to their payment strategies and do it themselves, because they may be able to save a lot of money.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E56 (2021-11-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:00:46 SUPPORT
“Amazon is now doing more to actually unwind duopolies and monopolies in markets than the government and the FTC is, you know, see this thing that Amazon is now doing in the UK with Visa, where they basically shut Visa off. ... And so they are looking at and there's a rumor that they may switch the Amazon credit card off of Visa rails and put them on MasterCard rails. But this is another example, Jason, to your point of like, you know, Bernie and the progressive left would probably rail against the duopoly practices of Visa and MasterCard. They can't get anything done.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath
Chamath w=0.84
3 scoring events · 100% of moves
+50.9 → net +50.9

⏳ decay drained -34.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E22 2021-02-13 init +29.3 29.3 E22 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.84]
E23 2021-02-20 decay -1.2 28.1 E23 silent
E24 2021-03-06 decay -1.1 27.0 E24 silent
E25 2021-03-13 decay -1.1 25.9 E25 silent
E26 2021-03-20 decay -1.0 24.9 E26 silent
E27 2021-03-27 decay -1.0 23.9 E27 silent
E28 2021-04-01 decay -1.0 22.9 E28 silent
E29 2021-04-17 decay -0.9 22.0 E29 silent
E30 2021-04-23 decay -0.9 21.1 E30 silent
E31 2021-05-01 decay -0.8 20.3 E31 silent
E32 2021-05-13 decay -0.8 19.5 E32 silent
E33 2021-05-22 decay -0.8 18.7 E33 silent
E34 2021-05-31 decay -0.7 18.0 E34 silent
E35 2021-06-13 decay -0.7 17.2 E35 silent
E36 2021-06-18 decay -0.7 16.6 E36 silent
E37 2021-06-25 decay -0.7 15.9 E37 silent
E38 2021-07-03 decay -0.6 15.3 E38 silent
E39 2021-07-09 decay -0.6 14.6 E39 silent
E40 2021-07-16 decay -0.6 14.1 E40 silent
E41 2021-07-23 decay -0.6 13.5 E41 silent
E42 2021-07-30 decay -0.5 13.0 E42 silent
E43 2021-08-06 reinforce +10.9 23.9 E43 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84]
E44 2021-08-28 decay -1.0 22.9 E44 silent
E45 2021-09-04 decay -0.9 22.0 E45 silent
E46 2021-09-14 decay -0.9 21.1 E46 silent
E47 2021-09-18 decay -0.8 20.3 E47 silent
E49 2021-10-02 decay -0.8 19.5 E49 silent
E50 2021-10-09 decay -0.8 18.7 E50 silent
E51 2021-10-16 decay -0.7 18.0 E51 silent
E52 2021-10-23 decay -0.7 17.2 E52 silent
E53 2021-10-30 decay -0.7 16.5 E53 silent
E54 2021-11-06 decay -0.7 15.9 E54 silent
E55 2021-11-13 decay -0.6 15.2 E55 silent
E56 2021-11-20 reinforce +10.6 25.9 E56 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84]
E57 2021-12-04 decay -1.0 24.9 E57 silent
E58 2021-12-11 decay -1.0 23.9 E58 silent
E59 2021-12-17 decay -1.0 22.9 E59 silent
E60 2021-12-23 decay -0.9 22.0 E60 silent
E61 2021-12-29 decay -0.9 21.1 E61 silent
E62 2022-01-08 decay -0.8 20.3 E62 silent
E63 2022-01-15 decay -0.8 19.5 E63 silent
E64 2022-01-22 decay -0.8 18.7 E64 silent
E65 2022-01-29 decay -0.7 17.9 E65 silent
E66 2022-02-05 decay -0.7 17.2 E66 silent
E67 2022-02-12 decay -0.7 16.5 E67 silent