🏛️ Regulators backstop all uninsured deposits within days
The besties' unanimous call and demand going into the weekend of 2023-03-11: the Fed/Treasury/FDIC either hand SVB to a large balance sheet Bear-Stearns/WaMu style, or stand up a TARP-style facility guaranteeing 100% of deposits system-wide — wiping SVB's equity holders and management but making every depositor whole. Jason's mechanism claim is that merely announcing a big enough facility ($500B) stops the run without the money ever being drawn. Framed explicitly as a this-weekend / by-Monday event; the payoff is that a 2008-style systemic cascade is averted.
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-03-11 → 2023-04-11 — first mention + 1-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG SPY (primary play). SPY rose 6.7% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +6.7% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +6.7% → vs SPY = +6.7 − (+6.7) = +0.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses. (SPY is itself the primary here — scored on return alone.)
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | benchmark-primary: scored on R alone | proxy-sensitive: KRE→MISS (-2.5%); XLF→MISS (+2.8%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-03-11)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | SPY | etf | PRIMARY | the claim's payoff is that a 2008-style systemic cascade gets averted, which is a broad-market call; the narrower regional-bank leg is scored separately and bearishly under svb-regional-bank-deposit-flight-2023 |
| ▲ LONG | KRE | etf | adjacent | the regional banks the backstop was meant to save — a proxy, and one that kept falling after the backstop arrived, so it should not be read as confirming this idea |
| ▲ LONG | XLF | etf | adjacent | broad financials — the sector the backstop is aimed at |
Mention log newest first
“If a federal agency comes in, if the Fed comes in and says, you know what, we are going to backstop all of these banks and we are going to put $500 billion behind it and we're going to guarantee that all these deposits are going to be made whole.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -14.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E119 2023-03-11 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E119 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E119 2023-03-11 | reinforce | +13.1 | 55.0 | E119 Chamath support x2 (new voice) |
| E119 2023-03-11 | reinforce | +12.1 | 67.2 | E119 Jason support x3 (new voice) |
| E120 2023-03-17 | reinforce | +4.9 | 72.1 | E120 Sacks support x2 |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -5.0 | 67.1 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -4.7 | 62.4 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -4.4 | 58.0 | E123 silent |