Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.

I mean, I think it's saying a couple of things. I mean, one, it's saying, obviously, look, I think the PE ratios on the Newsmax trade are ridiculous in the sense that it's going to revert back to something closer to normalcy. I think that it was supposed to trade at 10 bucks and it came out of 14 It spoke to like 240 So it's more like GameStop than anything else. ... It'll end up being, you know, total market cap will probably be somewhere when it lands in like the two to three bill range, somewhere three to four bill, something like that.

Jason support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 1:08:37

It's a toss-up. That's what everybody's saying. It looks like Trump's got a slight lead. So I think it's going to be a toss-up.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 1:11:36

I think what the early voting data shows is something that you haven't seen in the past, which is that there are a lot of Republican people that are voting early.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 1:08:53

So it is looking good for Trump. And if you look at the numbers that Elon's group, that America PAC put out, it looks like the early voting in Pennsylvania is trending 500,000 votes better for Republicans in the early voting than four years ago.

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 57:20

So I would discount Polymarket a bit. It's probably not as extreme as it seems

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 54:06

All the data is basically pointing one direction, which is a Trump victory

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 10:57

this is now tilted overwhelmingly to a Trump win

Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E200 · 2024-10-18 ▶ 6:25

From a substance perspective, it was pretty lacking because if you actually listen to the answers, there was just a ton of non-answers.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E200 · 2024-10-18 ▶ 1:16:49

Right now, the only candidate who looks like he could get a landslide is Trump. Otherwise, it's going to be very close. You're rooting for Trump if you want a landslide.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E199 · 2024-10-11 ▶ 1:18:43

which is why you're seeing the polls, at least the electoral college, which is really what matters at this point, turn Trump. So she's going to have a bit of an uphill fight between here and November.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E199 · 2024-10-11 ▶ 1:16:28

Clearly, there's been a huge swing towards Trump over the last week or two. And look, there's still 25 days to go, so anything can happen. I don't want to overstate this, but yeah, this is a good example right here, showing that Trump now has a lead in every swing state.

Now, she's either even or ahead or a little bit behind in every single poll. Why do I bring it up? because it means what she's doing is working.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E196 · 2024-09-20 ▶ 1:17:57

So I think it's a pretty good chance that he's going to win, actually.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E196 · 2024-09-20 ▶ 1:19:24

I mean, I think maybe the real question is why is he favored to win? Because I think the polls, including Nate Stilver, still show him favored to win.

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E195 · 2024-09-06 ▶ 1:14:37

She is the much weaker candidate. She's afraid to take questions on the tarmac. Trump is strong, he's authoritative, and I could see why they might prefer to have a President Harris than a President Trump.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E195 · 2024-09-06 ▶ 1:25:19

being able to do a more nuanced look at the electoral college probability, which is in the opposite direction, favoring Donald Trump and not Kamala.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E193 · 2024-08-23 ▶ 40:06

I think the more the public learns, the more we learn about what she would do as president, the worse she does. And they've now got to run out the clock for another 70, 80 days in terms of running a campaign that's substance free, that's just completely on vibes, that's about joy, without answering any questions, without doing any press interviews.

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 1:14:47

Now, pragmatically, running out the clock as a strategy and not defining your positions too much and just selling the vibes is a brilliant strategy and it's working.

Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 1:19:57

And in the middle of the relief rally that Biden isn't in the race. I think that we had a different version of a relief rally when everybody realized that President Trump hadn't been assassinated. So these are the pendulum swings, I think, of an electorate that still hasn't been given a clear definition of A or B.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 1:12:19

And I think that now that she finally is putting out policy proposals that can be questioned or analyzed and criticized, I think this is going to be the beginning of, I would say, a big correction in her campaign.

Jason brush_off ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ The Walz pick is a net negative for Harris — stolen valor is the live risk E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 1:38:00

I would like to thank both JD Vance and Walz for their service. I appreciate both of their service. I'll leave it at that from my perspective.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ The Walz pick is a net negative for Harris — stolen valor is the live risk E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 1:26:40

But I do think that where there's going to be a big judgment issue around her selecting him, is if there is veracity to the stolen valor claims.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ The Walz pick is a net negative for Harris — stolen valor is the live risk E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 1:29:28

But in the process of being risk averse, she chose this guy Walz, who I think has got much bigger vulnerabilities than Shapiro does. And I think the question now is whether Walz is even going to make it to the convention. I think he might have to drop out.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Biden wins reelection on a strong economy E190 · 2024-08-02 ▶ 12:28

Because I do think that's what's going to allow her to win this election, and she's going to stand up and say, here's why I am not Joe Biden.

Sacks oppose ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Biden wins reelection on a strong economy E190 · 2024-08-02 ▶ 2:16

I just think that at some point over the next 100 days, that approach is just going to fall apart. She's going to have to do a debate. She's going to have to answer questions. At that point, I think the bloom will come off the rose a little bit here, and you'll see the polls normalize.