← pool · child of DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control
📈 DOGE lease terminations flood the office market and hit federal landlords
Federal offices are on rolling one-year leases because the government is treated as a risk-free tenant, so DOGE can terminate them almost immediately, and the buildings are already close to empty. Mass termination plus return-to-office consolidation dumps a large block of space onto an already weak office market, marking down landlords with heavy federal exposure and the wider commercial real-estate values sitting in pension and 401k balance sheets.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 58.8 WATCH
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT JBGS
expression · bearish equities
MISS
outcome · R -13.0% · α -29.3%
2026-01-31
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-01-31 → 2026-01-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT JBGS (primary play). JBGS rose 13.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -13.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.3%
→ α = -13.0 − (+16.3) = -29.3%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +3.3% — did JBGS move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Travis Kalanick | proxy-sensitive: BXP→PARTIAL (+7.2%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-31)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | JBGS | stock | PRIMARY | DC-area office REIT with the most direct federal-tenant and DC-market exposure |
| ▼ SHORT | BXP | stock | adjacent | largest US office REIT - takes the supply shock on rents and occupancy |
| ▼ SHORT | XLRE | etf | adjacent | broad real-estate basket for the pension/401k markdown channel |
Mention log
TR
Travis Kalanick
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities: 2 resolved, unproven
· E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:17:49
SUPPORT
“I mean, what I'm hearing about these buildings is that they are super, super empty, like next level empty. And let's just say, I'm really glad I don't hold it like I'm an owner that has a bunch of leases to the federal government right now.”
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:18:14
SUPPORT
“The government is such a reliable client that they're all on one-year leases. So people don't do what they do with startups, which is force them to do five or ten years, because they know, hey, this company could go out of business. They're just like, yeah, yeah, we're just on a rolling year over year lease, so you can actually just cut these. It's going to flood the market.”
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:36:20
SUPPORT
“Well, that seems like the crazy thing that nobody is thinking about, which is in this push, this physical built inventory has so much value built up in the 401Ks of individuals to the balance sheets of huge pension funds. But that value could be very different.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -49.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E213 2025-01-31 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E213 born by Travis Kalanick (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E213 2025-01-31 | reinforce | +14.2 | 49.2 | E213 Jason support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E213 2025-01-31 | reinforce | +9.6 | 58.8 | E213 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -2.4 | 56.4 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -2.3 | 54.2 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -2.2 | 52.0 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -2.1 | 49.9 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -2.0 | 47.9 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -1.9 | 46.0 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -1.8 | 44.2 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -1.8 | 42.4 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -1.7 | 40.7 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -1.6 | 39.1 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -1.6 | 37.5 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -1.5 | 36.0 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -1.4 | 34.6 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -1.4 | 33.2 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E259 silent |