📈 DOGE lease terminations flood the office market and hit federal landlords

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-01-31 → 2026-01-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT JBGS (primary play). JBGS rose 13.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -13.0% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.3% → vs SPY = -13.0 − (+16.3) = -29.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +3.3% — did JBGS move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Jason, Travis Kalanick | proxy-sensitive: BXP→PARTIAL (+7.2%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason 49%

1 scoring event · 63% of moves

+35.0 → net +35.0

Chamath 42%

1 scoring event · 23% of moves

+13.0 → net +13.0

Travis Kalanick regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 13% of moves

+7.3 → net +7.3

⏳ decay drained -46.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one