← pool

🏛️ Biden wins reelection on a strong economy

Jason's call off the March 2024 setup: record-low unemployment, a record stock market and a Fed that Powell has all but promised will deliver three cuts before November hand Biden a clear, easy path to reelection. Sacks takes the direct other side - Biden is incredibly unpopular and his head-to-head polling is not the polling of a president who gets reelected, economy or not, though he concedes rate cuts would help (his 'Biden putt' framing). The listed expression is the Trump-linked vehicle, which trades as a proxy on Trump's 2024 odds, so a Biden win is bearish it.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 35.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▼ SHORT DJT
expression · bearish politics-market
HIT
outcome · R +45.2% · α +35.6%
2025-03-22
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2024-03-22 → 2025-03-22 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▼ SHORT DJT (primary play). DJT fell 45.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +45.2% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +9.6%α = +45.2 − (+9.6) = +35.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
    Stock-selection read: +54.8% — did DJT move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 45.2, α 35.6)
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    · MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg | opposed: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: ICLN→PARTIAL (+13.0%)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-03-22)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT DJTstock PRIMARY Trump Media trades as a proxy on Trump's 2024 election odds; a Biden win is bearish it
▼ SHORT ICLNetf adjacent a second Biden term sustains IRA clean-energy subsidy flow that a Trump win would unwind

Mention log

Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:53 SUPPORT · horizon 8mo
“it's looking like Biden has a clear path to victory based on the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes and this roaring stock market records. Yeah, it's an easy Biden victory.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:05:12 OPPOSE · horizon 8mo
“Biden is incredibly unpopular. If you look at his actual polling, he should not win the election... A president with these fundamentals would normally get reelected, but Biden currently is not, his polling is not the polling of a president who's going to get reelected.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E173 (2024-04-05) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:13:20 OPPOSE · horizon 48mo
“So if you want to have a serious chance of World War III in the next four years, then I would say go ahead and vote for Biden in November. I mean, this is just very clear to me. I'm personally not willing to accept that risk.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E180 (2024-05-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 48:42 OPPOSE
“This is obvious. And the press can gaslight us all day long about how wonderful things are under Biden, but the average American, I think, understands differently based on their own experience.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E181 (2024-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 13:53 REVERSAL
“You have put up a candidate that nobody wants. His policies on the border and some other issues are not, you know, in sync with the majority of the country.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E181 (2024-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:36:54 OPPOSE
“The Democratic Party knows they're running a candidate who can't debate, who can't put two sentences together, who can barely find his way off a stage, whose policies are coming home to roost, the economy, like we talked about on the show, is slowing down very rapidly.”
Friedberg
Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E181 (2024-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:23:19 OPPOSE
“Anyone who's sitting in the middle as an independent or an undecided, I think it is much more likely that they are going to have sympathy for Donald Trump coming out of this, not admonishment.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E181 (2024-05-31) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:24:40 OPPOSE
“And I think that if you were undecided or pro-President Trump, you probably found more reason to support him for all the reasons that Friedberg said.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E182 (2024-06-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 29:55 REVERSAL
“They're the D-cell candidate party now. And they just have to flip this thinking. They're going to get demolished. It is going to be a landslide at this point.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E182 (2024-06-07) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 28:53 OPPOSE
“I think you make the correct point, which is, you know, I didn't really think about it this way, but you're right, Biden is the D-cell candidate.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E183 (2024-06-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 17:44 REVERSAL
“So you're going to lose the election and Biden's going to get demolished.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E183 (2024-06-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 22:33 OPPOSE
“There are people who don't like Trump, and that drives some support for Biden. But if you look at enthusiasm and excitement, it's all on the Trump side.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E184 (2024-06-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 12:02 REVERSAL
“What's your plan? And it looks like you're going to win a second term here.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E185 (2024-06-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 20:36 REVERSAL
“Which is better than running somebody who has a 30% chance of winning.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E187 (2024-07-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:15:56 REVERSAL
“It's an easy choice for most Americans, and that's why Trump will beat Biden”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E187 (2024-07-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:19:44 OPPOSE
“Well, no, look, I think that Trump should win regardless, but it's an opportunity for them to reset the race”
Friedberg
Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E188 (2024-07-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 6:29 OPPOSE
“I think the first thing I thought after I saw the video and saw that he was okay and that his ear was bleeding was, that's it, it's over. Trump's won.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E188 (2024-07-19) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 14:30 OPPOSE
“I saw so many reactions to the former and probably future president of the United States getting shot”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E188 (2024-07-19) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 28:07 OPPOSE
“the once and likely future president came within millimeters, centimeters of being assassinated”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E190 (2024-08-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 33:07 OPPOSE
“And I think if you have a bad economy, like what it looks like going into November, it's going to be very difficult for the Democrats to win the White House.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E190 (2024-08-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 2:16 OPPOSE
“I just think that at some point over the next 100 days, that approach is just going to fall apart. She's going to have to do a debate. She's going to have to answer questions. At that point, I think the bloom will come off the rose a little bit here, and you'll see the polls normalize.”
Friedberg
Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E190 (2024-08-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 12:28 SUPPORT
“Because I do think that's what's going to allow her to win this election, and she's going to stand up and say, here's why I am not Joe Biden.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason
Jason w=1.00
7 scoring events · 38% of moves
+35.0 → net +35.0
Sacks
Sacks w=0.97
9 scoring events · 35% of moves
+0.0 / -32.3 → net -32.3
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.84
3 scoring events · 14% of moves
+12.6 → net +12.6
Chamath
Chamath w=1.02
3 scoring events · 14% of moves
+0.0 / -12.6 → net -12.6

⏳ decay drained -2.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E171 2024-03-22 init +35.0 35.0 E171 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x2)
E171 2024-03-22 oppose -13.9 21.1 E171 Sacks opposes x3 [w=0.97]
E172 2024-03-29 decay -0.8 20.2 E172 silent
E173 2024-04-05 oppose -11.6 8.7 E173 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.97]
E174 2024-04-12 decay -0.3 8.3 E174 silent
E175 2024-04-19 decay -0.3 8.0 E175 silent
E176 2024-04-26 decay -0.3 7.7 E176 silent
E177 2024-05-03 decay -0.3 7.4 E177 silent
E178 2024-05-10 decay -0.3 7.1 E178 silent
E179 2024-05-17 decay -0.3 6.8 E179 silent
E180 2024-05-24 oppose -6.8 0.0 E180 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.97]
E181 2024-05-31 reversal · 0.0 E181 Jason flips
E181 2024-05-31 oppose · 0.0 E181 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.84]
E181 2024-05-31 oppose · 0.0 E181 Chamath opposes x2 [w=1.02]
E181 2024-05-31 oppose · 0.0 E181 Sacks opposes x3 [w=0.97]
E182 2024-06-07 oppose · 0.0 E182 Sacks opposes x1 [w=0.97]
E182 2024-06-07 oppose · 0.0 E182 Jason opposes x3 (marked reversal; no prior support to flip)
E183 2024-06-14 oppose · 0.0 E183 Jason opposes x3 (marked reversal; no prior support to flip)
E183 2024-06-14 oppose · 0.0 E183 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.97]
E184 2024-06-20 oppose · 0.0 E184 Jason opposes x2 (marked reversal; no prior support to flip)
E185 2024-06-29 oppose · 0.0 E185 Jason opposes x3 (marked reversal; no prior support to flip)
E186 2024-07-04 decay · 0.0 E186 silent
E187 2024-07-12 oppose · 0.0 E187 Jason opposes x3 (marked reversal; no prior support to flip)
E187 2024-07-12 oppose · 0.0 E187 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.97]
E188 2024-07-19 oppose · 0.0 E188 Friedberg opposes x3 [w=0.84]
E188 2024-07-19 oppose · 0.0 E188 Chamath opposes x1 [w=1.02]
E188 2024-07-19 oppose · 0.0 E188 Sacks opposes x1 [w=0.97]
E189 2024-07-26 decay · 0.0 E189 silent
E190 2024-08-02 oppose · 0.0 E190 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.97]
E190 2024-08-02 reinforce +12.6 12.6 E190 Friedberg support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.84]
E190 2024-08-02 oppose -12.6 0.0 E190 Chamath opposes x3 [w=1.02]
E191 2024-08-09 decay · 0.0 E191 silent
E192 2024-08-16 decay · 0.0 E192 silent
E193 2024-08-23 decay · 0.0 E193 silent
E194 2024-08-30 decay · 0.0 E194 silent
E195 2024-09-06 decay · 0.0 E195 silent
E196 2024-09-20 decay · 0.0 E196 silent
E197 2024-09-27 decay · 0.0 E197 silent
E198 2024-10-03 decay · 0.0 E198 silent
E199 2024-10-11 decay · 0.0 E199 silent
E200 2024-10-18 decay · 0.0 E200 silent
E201 2024-10-25 decay · 0.0 E201 silent
E202 2024-11-01 decay · 0.0 E202 silent
E203 2024-11-08 decay · 0.0 E203 silent
E204 2024-11-16 decay · 0.0 E204 silent
E205 2024-11-23 decay · 0.0 E205 silent
E206 2024-12-07 decay · 0.0 E206 silent
E207 2024-12-13 decay · 0.0 E207 silent
E208 2024-12-20 decay · 0.0 E208 silent
E209 2025-01-04 decay · 0.0 E209 silent
E210 2025-01-11 decay · 0.0 E210 silent
E211 2025-01-18 decay · 0.0 E211 silent
E212 2025-01-25 decay · 0.0 E212 silent
E213 2025-01-31 decay · 0.0 E213 silent
E214 2025-02-07 decay · 0.0 E214 silent
E215 2025-02-15 decay · 0.0 E215 silent
E216 2025-02-21 decay · 0.0 E216 silent
E217 2025-03-01 decay · 0.0 E217 silent
E218 2025-03-08 decay · 0.0 E218 silent
E219 2025-03-15 decay · 0.0 E219 silent
E220 2025-03-22 decay · 0.0 E220 silent