🏛️ Biden wins reelection on a strong economy
Jason's call off the March 2024 setup: record-low unemployment, a record stock market and a Fed that Powell has all but promised will deliver three cuts before November hand Biden a clear, easy path to reelection. Sacks takes the direct other side - Biden is incredibly unpopular and his head-to-head polling is not the polling of a president who gets reelected, economy or not, though he concedes rate cuts would help (his 'Biden putt' framing). The listed expression is the Trump-linked vehicle, which trades as a proxy on Trump's 2024 odds, so a Biden win is bearish it.
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-03-22 → 2025-03-22 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT DJT (primary play). DJT fell 45.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +45.2% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +9.6%
→ α = +45.2 − (+9.6) = +35.6%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +54.8% — did DJT move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 45.2, α 35.6)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg | opposed: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: ICLN→PARTIAL (+13.0%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-03-22)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | DJT | stock | PRIMARY | Trump Media trades as a proxy on Trump's 2024 election odds; a Biden win is bearish it |
| ▼ SHORT | ICLN | etf | adjacent | a second Biden term sustains IRA clean-energy subsidy flow that a Trump win would unwind |
Mention log
“Biden is incredibly unpopular. If you look at his actual polling, he should not win the election... A president with these fundamentals would normally get reelected, but Biden currently is not, his polling is not the polling of a president who's going to get reelected.”
“So if you want to have a serious chance of World War III in the next four years, then I would say go ahead and vote for Biden in November. I mean, this is just very clear to me. I'm personally not willing to accept that risk.”
“The Democratic Party knows they're running a candidate who can't debate, who can't put two sentences together, who can barely find his way off a stage, whose policies are coming home to roost, the economy, like we talked about on the show, is slowing down very rapidly.”
“Anyone who's sitting in the middle as an independent or an undecided, I think it is much more likely that they are going to have sympathy for Donald Trump coming out of this, not admonishment.”
“I just think that at some point over the next 100 days, that approach is just going to fall apart. She's going to have to do a debate. She's going to have to answer questions. At that point, I think the bloom will come off the rose a little bit here, and you'll see the polls normalize.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -2.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E171 2024-03-22 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E171 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E171 2024-03-22 | oppose | -13.9 | 21.1 | E171 Sacks opposes x3 [w=0.97] |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | oppose | -11.6 | 8.7 | E173 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.97] |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | oppose | -6.8 | 0.0 | E180 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.97] |
| E181 2024-05-31 | reversal | · | 0.0 | E181 Jason flips |
| E181 2024-05-31 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E181 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.84] |
| E181 2024-05-31 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E181 Chamath opposes x2 [w=1.02] |
| E181 2024-05-31 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E181 Sacks opposes x3 [w=0.97] |
| E182 2024-06-07 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E182 Sacks opposes x1 [w=0.97] |
| E182 2024-06-07 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E182 Jason opposes x3 (marked reversal; no prior support to flip) |
| E183 2024-06-14 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E183 Jason opposes x3 (marked reversal; no prior support to flip) |
| E183 2024-06-14 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E183 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.97] |
| E184 2024-06-20 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E184 Jason opposes x2 (marked reversal; no prior support to flip) |
| E185 2024-06-29 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E185 Jason opposes x3 (marked reversal; no prior support to flip) |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | · | 0.0 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E187 Jason opposes x3 (marked reversal; no prior support to flip) |
| E187 2024-07-12 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E187 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.97] |
| E188 2024-07-19 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E188 Friedberg opposes x3 [w=0.84] |
| E188 2024-07-19 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E188 Chamath opposes x1 [w=1.02] |
| E188 2024-07-19 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E188 Sacks opposes x1 [w=0.97] |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | · | 0.0 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E190 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.97] |
| E190 2024-08-02 | reinforce | +12.6 | 12.6 | E190 Friedberg support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.84] |
| E190 2024-08-02 | oppose | -12.6 | 0.0 | E190 Chamath opposes x3 [w=1.02] |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | · | 0.0 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | · | 0.0 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | · | 0.0 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | · | 0.0 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | · | 0.0 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | · | 0.0 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | · | 0.0 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | · | 0.0 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | · | 0.0 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | · | 0.0 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | · | 0.0 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | · | 0.0 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | · | 0.0 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | · | 0.0 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | · | 0.0 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | · | 0.0 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | · | 0.0 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | · | 0.0 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | · | 0.0 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | · | 0.0 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | · | 0.0 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | · | 0.0 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | · | 0.0 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | · | 0.0 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | · | 0.0 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | · | 0.0 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | · | 0.0 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | · | 0.0 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | · | 0.0 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | · | 0.0 | E220 silent |