+59.9
net board stance
what this means
217.27
-0.8% · close 2026-09-08
-1% / +4% / +17%
1m / 3m / 12m
-7%
vs SPY since 2024-12-13
87%
of 52w range · -2.5% off high
0/2
hit rate as primary · α -29
Where we stand — 2 live ideas
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints | ▲ LONG | primary | 54.6 | +54.6 | EARLY | 122d |
| 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 CONTESTED | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 10.5 | +5.3 | — | 58d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on RSP
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 1 partial / 1 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.25, average α -29.1. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 AI adoption disperses the S&P — short the index, own the category killers | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -19.1% | -44.9 | 2026-06-21 |
| 📈 S&P 493 catches up to the Magnificent 7 in 2024 | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +13.7% | -13.3 | 2025-01-06 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding RSP, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
the inflation problem is fundamentally rooted in government spending. So deficit spending is correlated very nicely with the cost of housing, with the cost of healthcare, with the cost of education, and with the cost of everything else... And so inflation is persistent because what we thought were temporary emergency stimulus measures during COVID very quickly got normalized and became persistent spending cycles... So if the inflation remains high, people's affordability continues to go low.
firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest and they tended to grow their headcount roughly 10% in the two years following the adoption of AI. And entry-level headcount rose even faster, it grew at 12%. ... there's just no data to support this idea that in the present, AI is causing job loss.
I think the market's going to the moon.
The real opportunity with AI is on the revenue side, where suddenly one engineer can do a hundred times or a thousand times what they used to ... people are hiring like crazy. We cannot hire enough people. ... an extra 15 head count to our engineering squads ... everyone's going to realize soon that this is a boom, not a bust.
We just had a blowout jobs report in May, 172,000 new jobs over twice what economists were expecting. Thank you, President Trump. We're seeing hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs, 4.3% unemployment rate at record lows, okay? Even software developers, those jobs are at a three-year high,
there's also the macro point, which is government spending out of control. Inflation out of control. And fundamentally, as things unravel, you have rising rates. So I think we should kind of expect, especially with the Kevin Warsh Fed, I think we could see north of five and a half, six percent overnight rates. It's not unforeseeable.
We're at the outset of a boom right now caused by bespoke software proliferating throughout the economy and being used by firms that never thought of themselves as tech firms... job postings for software developers are at a three year high, growing 15% year over year... 4.3 percent unemployment... that doesn't even include the blue collar boom... hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs.
I think we have kind of call it 500 days where you just got to be net long. But I think it's literally in the hundreds of days from now, 500, you're going to have to have an important reckoning moment. The people that are paying for all these tokens need to see it in actual benefit.
80% of our exposures or more have been in compute, AI, memory, ... It's hard to imagine a more Goldilocks situation for the United States ... At some point, you just have to acknowledge USA is winning.
[Warsh at his Fed-chair hearing] spoke a lot about the deflationary evolution promised by AI... he expects it will drive productivity growth like we've never seen before... the deflationary forces ultimately lead to economic expansion... he does think the overall economic picture is one of deflationary pressure.
I'm generally more risk off right now. And more importantly, I'm waiting for these IPOs so that I can, to be very honest with you, de-lever and get some chips off the table.
the drawdown in this period over Iran was only down about five to seven percent on S&P and Nasdaq. ... if we land the plane on these two things, I think it's off to the races in the market. ... heading into America 250, July 4th, the market could really take off.
We're going to print 6% [GDP]... I agree [that this is the beginning of a new golden age].
we are at the beginning of an economic boom. ... the CapEx for this year that's expected, just from the four leading hyperscalers, is $600 billion, ... a roughly 2% tailwind to GDP growth right there. ... I suspect we'll look back on this time period as the beginning of a new golden age.
Warsh has been consistent for the last year, saying the Fed was taking too long to realize that inflation is falling and that they should be cutting more. So I do think that over the next, say, six months to a year, he's going to want to cut rates.
thinks AI will be very deflationary. And so he's more likely to let the economy run ... inflation has come in below all consensus estimates for two years, ... I happen to think that I would take the over on the number of rate cuts that Warsh is going to give us this year.
[2026 GDP growth?] 4.6%.
we are a coiled spring. Closing the border plus adding productivity lifts through AI ... that will really start to show itself in 26 ... short the US economy here. It is ready to rip. ... asset prices in general, I think will do well.
the Trump boom is going to be the biggest political winner of 2026 ... by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts, possibly 75 to 100 basis points. ... forecast for Q4 GDP just climbed to 5.4%.
The other thing in 26 is you get a bunch of tax cuts that kick in. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime. ... Accelerated depreciation. You have big stimulative actions for the United States economy.
It looks to me like inflation is rolling over, and that's just about a solved problem... it implies that interest rates are coming down... it seems to me like we're on the cusp of a golden age here... I think we're headed for a gangbusters 2026 — rates are coming down, inflation is coming down, and you're also getting tax cuts going into effect next year.
I actually think you are going to get three to four rate cuts. I actually think you are going to see a re-acceleration of GDP. I ... happen to think that inflation is going to continue rolling over. ... I'll take the under, Jason, with you. And you can have a little side wager.
Friedberg
support ×3
▼ on
📈 AI adoption disperses the S&P — short the index, own the category killers
E232 · 2025-06-21
▶ 1:19:41
I think it's the first time you could probably argue that you could go short the S&P and pick a couple of winners. ... I do think that this is such a transformative moment that if you really have a sense for what's possible, you could start to see category killers emerge out of the S&P, and it's an opportunity to short the S&P and pick a couple of winners.
Chamath
support ×3
▼ on
📈 AI adoption disperses the S&P — short the index, own the category killers
E232 · 2025-06-21
▶ 58:11
why would you belong any of these 493 companies that may turn around and one day just get decapitated by something you don't even know that's getting cooked up by a couple of kids in a garage using open AI or GROC or what have you?
TH
Thomas Laffont
support ×3
▼ on
📈 AI adoption disperses the S&P — short the index, own the category killers
E232 · 2025-06-21
▶ 23:22
I'm wondering if this is the year where we've seen the greatest divergence amongst the Mac 7, right? ... now the market is saying, wait, hold on, we might start to see diverging performance.