+64.8
net board stance
what this means
216.05
-0.4% · close 2026-11-06
+3% / -2% / +18%
1m / 3m / 12m
+2%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
83%
of 52w range · -3.3% off high
0/2
hit rate as primary · vs SPY -29
Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints | ▲ LONG | primary | 64.8 | +64.8 | NOT MOVED YET | 64d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
Track record on RSP
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 1 partial / 1 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.25, average vs SPY -29.1. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | result | return | vs SPY | scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 AI adoption disperses the S&P — short the index, own the category killers | ▼ SHORT | primary | WRONG | -19.1% | -44.9 | 2026-06-21 |
| 📈 S&P 493 catches up to the Magnificent 7 in 2024 | ▲ LONG | primary | HALF | +13.7% | -13.3 | 2025-01-06 |
| 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 | ▲ LONG | adjacent | WRONG | -4.6% | -15.4 | 2026-11-07 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding RSP, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Then the second thing is that the economy is not that bad. I mean, in fact, it's quite good. Just today, we had a new jobs report. It was a very robust jobs report.
So I think the economy is not a disaster. That is total fake news. We know what the growth rates are. It was 2.5% in the last quarter, and it's tracking at 3.7% right now.
Yeah, I agree that he is doing a great job in that, like better than any president I've ever seen in my lifetime in terms of getting the economy rocking.
It pulls through massively increased wages for middle class and skilled labor.
What has superintelligence created? First of all, people's 401Ks are going up. It's a 3% tailwind to GDP. A million new jobs created, according to the economist already. Productivity goes up, which means that wages and living standards go up. This is a driver right now of nothing but positive economic trends.
You get the price of diesel down and that'll be the last remaining unlock on inflation. That'll bring rates down and the economy is going to hit, you know, 5% GDP growth.
I hate to put a little rain on this hopium parade here, but two important charts as we go into the midterms.
If you look at unemployment hasn't changed, it's about the same. And then if you look at inflation, it's still sustained at that high threes, sometimes dipping into four, sometimes as low as 3.2, but never into the twos. And GDP is something that the American people just don't feel.
But I tend to think that we're going to see a little bit more growth than that is expected. I tend to think we're going to probably see a little bit more revision.
I think actually right now, no one's pricing in the potential for rate cuts here. It's all rate increases. So if we could get some relief there, get rate cuts, I mean, again, the economy is going to rock it even more.
We've seen short-term rates on treasuries climb by 60 basis points. That's a pretty consequential climb. I think we haven't seen a short-term yield this high since going back to 2002
If you think that you have 3.5% inflation and 5% nominal GDP growth, what you have is 1.5% real. And the problem with that is that AI is probably the majority, if not all of it.
Maybe we are seeing the AI wave under way right now, the productivity wave, the productivity boom.
There's no evidence of that. Quite the contrary, it's all been job gains.
the inflation problem is fundamentally rooted in government spending. So deficit spending is correlated very nicely with the cost of housing, with the cost of healthcare, with the cost of education, and with the cost of everything else... And so inflation is persistent because what we thought were temporary emergency stimulus measures during COVID very quickly got normalized and became persistent spending cycles... So if the inflation remains high, people's affordability continues to go low.
firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest and they tended to grow their headcount roughly 10% in the two years following the adoption of AI. And entry-level headcount rose even faster, it grew at 12%. ... there's just no data to support this idea that in the present, AI is causing job loss.
I think the market's going to the moon.
there's also the macro point, which is government spending out of control. Inflation out of control. And fundamentally, as things unravel, you have rising rates. So I think we should kind of expect, especially with the Kevin Warsh Fed, I think we could see north of five and a half, six percent overnight rates. It's not unforeseeable.
The real opportunity with AI is on the revenue side, where suddenly one engineer can do a hundred times or a thousand times what they used to ... people are hiring like crazy. We cannot hire enough people. ... an extra 15 head count to our engineering squads ... everyone's going to realize soon that this is a boom, not a bust.
We just had a blowout jobs report in May, 172,000 new jobs over twice what economists were expecting. Thank you, President Trump. We're seeing hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs, 4.3% unemployment rate at record lows, okay? Even software developers, those jobs are at a three-year high,
We're at the outset of a boom right now caused by bespoke software proliferating throughout the economy and being used by firms that never thought of themselves as tech firms... job postings for software developers are at a three year high, growing 15% year over year... 4.3 percent unemployment... that doesn't even include the blue collar boom... hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs.
I think we have kind of call it 500 days where you just got to be net long. But I think it's literally in the hundreds of days from now, 500, you're going to have to have an important reckoning moment. The people that are paying for all these tokens need to see it in actual benefit.
80% of our exposures or more have been in compute, AI, memory, ... It's hard to imagine a more Goldilocks situation for the United States ... At some point, you just have to acknowledge USA is winning.
[Warsh at his Fed-chair hearing] spoke a lot about the deflationary evolution promised by AI... he expects it will drive productivity growth like we've never seen before... the deflationary forces ultimately lead to economic expansion... he does think the overall economic picture is one of deflationary pressure.
I'm generally more risk off right now. And more importantly, I'm waiting for these IPOs so that I can, to be very honest with you, de-lever and get some chips off the table.