+0.0
net board stance
what this means
35.67
-0.8% · close 2026-09-08
-5% / -5% / +5%
1m / 3m / 12m
-37%
vs SPY since 2022-08-13
38%
of 52w range · -14.3% off high
0/2
hit rate as primary · α -24
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on BOTZ
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 2 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.0, average α -24.4. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Expensive labour pulls forward automation capex | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -52.6% | -33.7 | 2022-10-16 |
| 🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -5.5% | -15.1 | 2025-03-22 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding BOTZ, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
It's a lot harder to create one of these general purpose systems and automation than create like vertically or kind of utility specific automation system. So a device that just does one thing, delivers something to you in the air or drives your food to you or loads and unloads your dishes. ... It is a general purpose device and it makes a technically very hard road map, I got to imagine.
Basically, these businesses today are running at call it 30% EBITDA margins at peak performance. That's like Chipotle's best class by taking out labor. You could probably take out another 20 points of cost, which could translate into lower prices for consumers, higher throughput, lower wait times.
We have an investment in a company called Cafe X. Nick, you can play a clip of it. These two machines in FSO have broke a million dollars a year in revenue.
And I'm really interested in robotics now, too. I think there's going to be some incredible gains with Optimus and some of the other robots that are occurring.
So the robotic applications are pretty powerful. Machine vision applications are very powerful.
SA
Sam Altman
support ×1
▲ on
🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle
E178 · 2024-05-10
▶ 22:36
Same with how I'm, like, more excited about humanoid robots than sort of robots of, like, very other shapes. The world is very much designed for humans and I think we should absolutely keep it that way.
I think the Optimus has the highest alpha, but the highest beta. So, you know, more upside than anything else. Just unclear how you get there, what the path is and the capital requirements.
In the long-term, in terms of option value, I am the most intrigued by the robot play
I suspect instead of having a generalized robot, you have very specific use case robots that look differently ... there will be people that become experts in these vertical use cases, and that will limit the TAM for a generalized approach.
I think every human on planet Earth eventually will have a robot. So I know that's crazy, but I think Optimus will dwarf the entire entirety of Tesla's other businesses.
I don't think it necessarily follows this general purpose model. I think that there are likely going to be more narrow application ranges, and they're not going to necessarily be humanoid in form factor. ... the success of Gecko indicates that there's far more money to be made in industrial applications than there is in consumer applications today.
Jason, I don't think it's a five year time frame. I think it's longer than that. That's just my guess. ... I think in the near term, it's all about industrial applications or maybe even military applications.
I think every human is going to have one of these. I think every household in America, every middle class household in America, will have one of these thousand dollar a month robots in seven years. I'll give it seven.
I think it'll be less than that. I think it's going to be in the next two or three years, you'll have a domestic help robot that you can probably pay a thousand bucks a month for.
something tells me this robotic space, which has been a start over and over and over again. I think this is the time where actually it's going to work. And so I love that hardware and robotics space.
is there a enterprise like sale of robotics tools that have positive ROI for enterprises? And is there a business that's working there and that is scalable? Vertical solutions in labor and automation and productivity gains are probably the best sharp ratio.
I think that's going to be the very interesting thing with the robots as well, is all of these decisions they're making, moving cars through roads, all of a sudden we're going to see that with VTOLs, vertical takeoff and landing, you know, aircraft, and we're going to see it with this general robot.
We are within, I think, five, 10 years of a lot of these jobs. We're talking tens of millions of manual labor jobs being gone. And we're going to look at this moment in time where we try to squeeze an extra 10 or 20 percent out of these employers. And then you're going to see these employers say, you know what? 24-hour-a-day robot. Yeah, it's a little bit upfront cost. I'll put it on the lease and they're just going to move to these robots. It's really very close to being game over for manual labor.
Well, the reason is because if you raise the minimum wage too much, then these employers have a huge incentive to replace that labor with automation. And so the unintended consequence that Chamath is talking about is that these big chain restaurants are going to rely even more heavily on automation now.
And so to think that they're not going to just invest heavily now at the corporate level, the next franchisee of McDonald's will still pay a million dollars for franchise fee but will give will be given a bevy of robots that they rent for McDonald's and they'll have to hire half or third less.
Number two, businesses are going to automate. So new businesses will emerge that actually do the fast food work or do the car building work or do the dock loading and unloading work that are automated and they'll have an inherent advantage in the economy and they'll win.
But generally speaking, technology drives productivity gains, but it's deflationary in the short term.
RY
Ryan Petersen
oppose ×2
▲ on
🤖 Expensive labour pulls forward automation capex
E66 · 2022-02-05
▶ 31:21
Flexport already made this technology. We could 10x the throughput of one of these ports overnight ... We already have this tech. So it's a matter of implementation, deployment, and how do you get around a lot of people that don't really want to see better running ports. And it's pretty sad to sit where I sit.
So the low-cost model of consumerism in the United States, which has been a stronghold for our economy for 100 years at this point, may be coming to an end, or it will accelerate the implementation of automation across that sector of the economy.
The other free market argument that could be made is that these current trends will accelerate a trend towards more automation of low cost labor ... So there's a number of these automation industries that may significantly benefit and that ends up ultimately being deflationary and the market comes into balance.