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📈 Base-edited T-cells cure incurable blood cancer - gene editing inflects

Chamath's science call of the year: a UK lab used CRISPR base editing on donor T-cells to make a 13-year-old's incurable T-cell ALL undetectable. If base editing can eradicate a blood cancer it extends to solid tumours, making gene-editing platforms the most valuable technology in medicine.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 42.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG BEAM
expression · bullish equities
WRONG
result · return -22.6% · vs SPY -48.7%
2023-12-24
born 2022-12-24 (E109) → window closed

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2022-12-24 → 2023-12-24 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG BEAM (primary play). BEAM fell 22.6% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -22.6% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.1% → vs SPY = -22.6 − (+26.1) = -48.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    ▶ WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: CRSP→HIT (+55.3%)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-12-24)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG BEAMstock PRIMARY pure-play base editing, the exact modality Chamath names
▲ LONG CRSPstock adjacent largest listed CRISPR editor, ex-vivo cell therapy for blood disease
▲ LONG NTLAstock adjacent in-vivo CRISPR editing platform

Mention log newest first

Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E109 (2022-12-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 52:44 SUPPORT
“Because if you can actually now do base editing and eradicate, at least in this case, a blood-based cancer, and eventually we'll be able to bring that and use that towards solid-state tumor cancers, it's a huge breakthrough in just human longevity and human quality of life.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath
Chamath 42%
1 scoring event · 100% of moves
+42.0 → net +42.0

⏳ decay drained -34.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E109 2022-12-24 init +42.0 42.0 E109 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3)
E110 2023-01-06 decay -1.7 40.3 E110 silent
E111 2023-01-13 decay -1.6 38.7 E111 silent
E112 2023-01-20 decay -1.5 37.2 E112 silent
E113 2023-01-27 decay -1.5 35.7 E113 silent
E114 2023-02-04 decay -1.4 34.2 E114 silent
E115 2023-02-11 decay -1.4 32.9 E115 silent
E116 2023-02-17 decay -1.3 31.6 E116 silent
E118 2023-03-03 decay -1.3 30.3 E118 silent
E119 2023-03-11 decay -1.2 29.1 E119 silent
E120 2023-03-17 decay -1.2 27.9 E120 silent
E121 2023-03-24 decay -1.1 26.8 E121 silent
E122 2023-03-31 decay -1.1 25.7 E122 silent
E123 2023-04-07 decay -1.0 24.7 E123 silent
E124 2023-04-14 decay -1.0 23.7 E124 silent
E125 2023-04-21 decay -0.9 22.8 E125 silent
E126 2023-04-28 decay -0.9 21.9 E126 silent
E128 2023-05-12 decay -0.9 21.0 E128 silent
E129 2023-05-19 decay -0.8 20.1 E129 silent
E130 2023-05-26 decay -0.8 19.3 E130 silent
E131 2023-06-02 decay -0.8 18.6 E131 silent
E132 2023-06-10 decay -0.7 17.8 E132 silent
E133 2023-06-16 decay -0.7 17.1 E133 silent
E134 2023-06-24 decay -0.7 16.4 E134 silent
E135 2023-07-01 decay -0.7 15.8 E135 silent
E136 2023-07-09 decay -0.6 15.1 E136 silent
E137 2023-07-14 decay -0.6 14.5 E137 silent
E139 2023-07-27 decay -0.6 13.9 E139 silent
E140 2023-08-04 decay -0.6 13.4 E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11 decay -0.5 12.9 E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18 decay -0.5 12.3 E142 silent
E143 2023-08-25 decay -0.5 11.8 E143 silent
E144 2023-09-01 decay -0.5 11.4 E144 silent
E146 2023-09-22 decay -0.5 10.9 E146 silent
E147 2023-09-29 decay -0.4 10.5 E147 silent
E148 2023-10-07 decay -0.4 10.1 E148 silent
E149 2023-10-13 decay -0.4 9.7 E149 silent
E150 2023-10-20 decay -0.4 9.3 E150 silent
E151 2023-10-27 decay -0.4 8.9 E151 silent
E152 2023-11-03 decay -0.4 8.5 E152 silent
E156 2023-12-08 decay -0.3 8.2 E156 silent
E157 2023-12-16 decay -0.3 7.9 E157 silent
E158 2023-12-23 decay -0.3 7.6 E158 silent