📈 Base-edited T-cells cure incurable blood cancer - gene editing inflects
Chamath's science call of the year: a UK lab used CRISPR base editing on donor T-cells to make a 13-year-old's incurable T-cell ALL undetectable. If base editing can eradicate a blood cancer it extends to solid tumours, making gene-editing platforms the most valuable technology in medicine.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.2 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG BEAM
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -22.6% · α -48.7%
2023-12-24
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-12-24 → 2023-12-24 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG BEAM (primary play). BEAM fell 22.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -22.6% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.1% → α = -22.6 − (+26.1) = -48.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: CRSP→HIT (+55.3%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-12-24)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | BEAM | stock | PRIMARY | pure-play base editing, the exact modality Chamath names |
| ▲ LONG | CRSP | stock | adjacent | largest listed CRISPR editor, ex-vivo cell therapy for blood disease |
| ▲ LONG | NTLA | stock | adjacent | in-vivo CRISPR editing platform |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E109 (2022-12-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 52:44
SUPPORT
“Because if you can actually now do base editing and eradicate, at least in this case, a blood-based cancer, and eventually we'll be able to bring that and use that towards solid-state tumor cancers, it's a huge breakthrough in just human longevity and human quality of life.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -28.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E109 2022-12-24 | init | +35.2 | 35.2 | E109 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.84] |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -1.4 | 33.8 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -1.4 | 32.4 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -1.3 | 31.1 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -1.1 | 25.4 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -1.0 | 23.4 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.9 | 20.7 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.6 | 13.2 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.4 | 10.8 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -0.4 | 8.4 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E158 silent |