+91.2
net board stance
what this means
134.27
+8.6% · close 2026-11-06
-20% / +1% /
1m / 3m / 12m
-12%
vs SPY since 2026-06-19
25%
of 52w range · -36.5% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T | ▲ LONG | primary | 91.2 | +91.2 | NOT MOVED YET | 955d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 20 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding SPCX, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
It's going to be a no-brainer, let alone the prescience of SpaceX, which is severely undervalued as a stock and is... SpaceX, Tesla, I've been buying shares to this whole insanity.
The market rate, and it's probably not just double, it could probably triple. So whatever revenue you see on SpaceX's balance sheet from Anth could 2 to 3X, and Anth would have no choice except to immediately capitulate and take the higher price.
And then that gets sold to SpaceX, and then SpaceX turns around, and they're making, you know, an 83% margin on that chip spend because they're kind of looking at a five-year depreciation. So they spent $10 billion on Colossus One, five-year life, $2 billion a year depreciation. And so that's kind of the cost per year, but then they're making $1.25 billion a month on Colossus.
He's not dumb. He's the smartest of the smart. He's doing spot because he's like, I may cancel on you.
SpaceX, they pay back in roughly one year. That makes sense because I think that SpaceX is monetizing at about 50 billion per gigawatt, and CoreWeave at about 20 billion per gigawatt.
but the Starlink network basically becomes this incredible radar system that sits above the earth to look down on things that would normally be stealth from the surface of the earth.
Grok 4.6 is Pareto dominant on a lot of measures... very few of these investors talk about Grok at all... Maybe people should start to consider Grok when they think about SpaceX. [And] there's a lot ahead for SpaceX — the SpaceX story isn't over.
to catch up and become a true frontier lab. But if he fails at that, he's got the put option of just selling the compute at pretty attractive prices to the frontier labs.
Elon has caught up... he bought Cursor, he's got that team... and he brought in his killers from SpaceX. And he did that in six short months. Never count Elon out. He's frequently late. He's never wrong.
now you have a company at 1.4 trillion that I think if you take a three or four year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation
Starlink is just an unbelievable juggernaut cash machine... $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA [this quarter]... The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within 18 months. That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what Elon is doing.
I thought it was a very bullish earnings call. I was a little bit surprised that the stock went down... not only was it a beat and raise, but Elon spoke to a lot of their plans — Starship paves the way for the V3 satellite... 20 times more capacity per launch.
I got my first distribution from a fund I'm in. I'm in a couple of funds that are in SpaceX.
the SpaceX IPO where we were also investors and we also bought in the IPO, ... trading at $2 trillion on roughly $35 billion of forward revenue. ... I still think there's a lot of meat on the bone on SpaceX, on Anthropic, on OpenAI. ... these things can be compounders. They're going to compound at the rate they compound revenue. ... well over 30% for the next many years.
There is very, very meager supply and there's effectively infinite demand. So that probably pulls forward the economic equation to want to go to space. But then again, that's going to prefer SpaceX and their compute stack and their compute decisions over the hyperscalers ... you're going to have a cost of an output token, I think terrestrially, particularly from the hyperscalers, be a little economically lopsided versus SpaceX once they get it to scale.
to stand up a one gigawatt data center, it's $35 billion in semiconductors and ... $25 billion of power and cooling equipment, and that is clearly inflationary ... When Starship is reusable, it's going to cost $5 billion to put a gigawatt of compute into space. ... you're $40 billion to put the gig into space. ... everybody who's a SpaceX investor or employee has had a chance to sell every six months for the last 10 years. ... Almost half the employees at SpaceX bought on the IPO.
It's an incredible company. It's a one of one. ... the highest price to sales was essentially these last few days. And now it's just going to grow into its valuation and generally just grow valuation.