+84.0
net board stance
what this means
154.59
+4.5% · close 2026-09-08
+16% /
1m / 3m / 12m
-3%
vs SPY since 2026-06-19
45%
of 52w range · -26.9% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T | ▲ LONG | primary | 84.0 | +84.0 | EARLY | 1013d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 12 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding SPCX, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Elon has caught up... he bought Cursor, he's got that team... and he brought in his killers from SpaceX. And he did that in six short months. Never count Elon out. He's frequently late. He's never wrong.
to catch up and become a true frontier lab. But if he fails at that, he's got the put option of just selling the compute at pretty attractive prices to the frontier labs.
Grok 4.6 is Pareto dominant on a lot of measures... very few of these investors talk about Grok at all... Maybe people should start to consider Grok when they think about SpaceX. [And] there's a lot ahead for SpaceX — the SpaceX story isn't over.
I got my first distribution from a fund I'm in. I'm in a couple of funds that are in SpaceX.
I thought it was a very bullish earnings call. I was a little bit surprised that the stock went down... not only was it a beat and raise, but Elon spoke to a lot of their plans — Starship paves the way for the V3 satellite... 20 times more capacity per launch.
Starlink is just an unbelievable juggernaut cash machine... $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA [this quarter]... The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within 18 months. That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what Elon is doing.
now you have a company at 1.4 trillion that I think if you take a three or four year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation
the SpaceX IPO where we were also investors and we also bought in the IPO, ... trading at $2 trillion on roughly $35 billion of forward revenue. ... I still think there's a lot of meat on the bone on SpaceX, on Anthropic, on OpenAI. ... these things can be compounders. They're going to compound at the rate they compound revenue. ... well over 30% for the next many years.
There is very, very meager supply and there's effectively infinite demand. So that probably pulls forward the economic equation to want to go to space. But then again, that's going to prefer SpaceX and their compute stack and their compute decisions over the hyperscalers ... you're going to have a cost of an output token, I think terrestrially, particularly from the hyperscalers, be a little economically lopsided versus SpaceX once they get it to scale.
to stand up a one gigawatt data center, it's $35 billion in semiconductors and ... $25 billion of power and cooling equipment, and that is clearly inflationary ... When Starship is reusable, it's going to cost $5 billion to put a gigawatt of compute into space. ... you're $40 billion to put the gig into space. ... everybody who's a SpaceX investor or employee has had a chance to sell every six months for the last 10 years. ... Almost half the employees at SpaceX bought on the IPO.
It's an incredible company. It's a one of one. ... the highest price to sales was essentially these last few days. And now it's just going to grow into its valuation and generally just grow valuation.