🏛️ US antitrust is punitive politics, not competition policy - hot-button platforms carry the overhang
The FTC under Lina Khan runs a target list rather than a rule book: it blocks Amazon/iRobot and a small Facebook VR app while ignoring the genuinely anti-competitive behaviour (Microsoft cloning competitors into the E5 bundle and then raising the price). So the deals that get stopped are the ones touching Washington's political and cultural hot buttons - social media and Amazon - while Adobe/Figma sails through and closes. The tradeable read-through is a durable, merit-independent regulatory and M&A-blocking overhang on the hot-button platforms.
also touching these tickers, same direction: Tort floodgates open on social media 15 (META) · Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms 4 (META)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT META (primary play). META rose 102.9% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -102.9% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +15.9%
→ α = -102.9 − (+15.9) = -118.8%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -87.0% — did META move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Brad Gerstner, Chamath, Friedberg, Jason, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-09-17)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | META | stock | PRIMARY | named repeatedly as the political target - blocked on even trivial VR acquisitions regardless of merits |
| ▼ SHORT | AMZN | stock | adjacent | the other named target (Roomba/iRobot block) with the same merit-independent overhang |
Mention log
“I mean, it closes. It closes because it doesn't intrude on the hot buttons of Washington, not because the merits of the antitrust are superior to the Roomba deal or to that VR deal that Facebook wants to have. This is all about political and cultural hot buttons.”
“This feels very political. It feels like they're going after Facebook because of the downstream political issues Facebook causes and they're ignoring the Microsoft issue and they're ignoring issues like this.”
“And so I just think it means that the DOJ is more focused on trying to punish these great American companies than it is in trying to be logical and reasoned. And so I don't think this is going to work.”
“My position is I think they want to have an outcome. And their outcome is they want to stick it to big tech because it's too powerful. And then you just said yourself, square peg, round hole. They're trying to find something to get Google on. This is not it.”
“this is the best thing that could happen for all of the monopolists in technology, because Microsoft taking five or six hundred basis points of share is the best way to ensure that the FTC has zero credibility in going after Google or anybody else in tech.”
“Amazon and Roomba, Facebook and this exercise app, but all of this other stuff goes completely unchecked. And I think that that is probably emblematic of what many of these government institutions are being run like.”
“For Lina Khan, I know she listens to the pod. Hey, Lina. You want to go after tactics, not acquisitions. So if somebody buys something and they lower prices and increases consumer choice, that's great.”
“The FTC's claim in the filing, which I actually read and I was like, this is actually a pretty good claim, is that the way that Amgen sets the prices for their pharmaceutical drugs is they go to the insurance companies, the payers and the health systems, and they negotiate drug pricing.”
“Because we've said to hyperscalers, you're not allowed to acquire any of these companies. So the unintended consequence of the regulation in Washington is that entrepreneurs and founders and venture capitalists who might otherwise have had a good idea, built something with some traction, they can't find a home for it”
“but I think she is absolutely doing Biden's bidding with an anti-tech, anti-wealth creation, anti-capitalism, frankly, pro-union punishment. I think this is punishment for tech being too successful.”
“we've seen Lina Khan, we've discussed it many times, seems to be saying, all business equals bad. Any merger equals bad. She's going to, you know, attempt to throw cold water on any merger that's happening. So M&A seems to be being taken off the plate by not just Lina Khan, but also the EU seems to be turning the screws. So if we don't have an M&A market, then that means there's only an IPO market.”
“But I'll tell you when it all began is that Biden had a press conference where he said that Elon needed to be looked at. ... So this was the signal to all of the ambitious apparatchiks in our law enforcement agencies who are looking for advancement that he's the target, go after him, find something. Now, in fact, they couldn't find anything. So they look at his relationship with other countries and what you would expect is that maybe he hired some foreign nationals he shouldn't have, but it was the exact opposite. They didn't hire foreign nationals. So then they make that the crime.”
“I think that when Elon bought Twitter, what effectively happened is the biggest PSYOPs organization for the Democratic Party was taken away from them. ... And so this is the sort of death by 1,000 cuts approach that the blob has of trying to bring him down. And so you see a DOJ lawsuit over here. It's nominal, but whatever. Then you're going to see the SEC investigation over $50,000 of glass.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -86.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E96 2022-09-17 | init | +40.6 | 40.6 | E96 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.97] |
| E96 2022-09-17 | reinforce | +13.4 | 53.9 | E96 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E96 2022-09-17 | reinforce | +10.6 | 64.5 | E96 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=1.02] |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -2.6 | 61.9 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -2.5 | 59.5 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -2.4 | 57.1 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -2.3 | 54.8 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -2.2 | 52.6 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -2.1 | 50.5 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -2.0 | 48.5 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -1.9 | 46.5 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -1.9 | 44.7 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -1.8 | 42.9 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -1.7 | 41.2 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -1.6 | 39.5 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -1.6 | 38.0 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -1.5 | 36.4 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -1.5 | 35.0 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | reinforce | +11.9 | 46.9 | E113 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02] |
| E113 2023-01-27 | reinforce | +10.0 | 56.9 | E113 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E113 2023-01-27 | reinforce | +6.5 | 63.4 | E113 Jason support x2 |
| E113 2023-01-27 | reinforce | +5.3 | 68.7 | E113 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -2.7 | 65.9 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | reinforce | +5.2 | 71.2 | E115 Chamath support x2 [w=1.02] |
| E116 2023-02-17 | reinforce | +5.3 | 76.5 | E116 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02] |
| E116 2023-02-17 | reinforce | +4.1 | 80.6 | E116 Sacks support x3 [w=0.97] |
| E116 2023-02-17 | reinforce | +2.9 | 83.5 | E116 Jason support x2 |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -3.3 | 80.1 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -3.2 | 76.9 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -3.1 | 73.8 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -3.0 | 70.9 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -2.8 | 68.1 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -2.7 | 65.3 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -2.6 | 62.7 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -2.5 | 60.2 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -2.4 | 57.8 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -2.3 | 55.5 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | oppose | -10.1 | 45.4 | E129 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.84] |
| E129 2023-05-19 | reinforce | +10.0 | 55.5 | E129 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02] |
| E129 2023-05-19 | reinforce | +7.7 | 63.2 | E129 Sacks support x3 [w=0.97] |
| E129 2023-05-19 | reinforce | +5.5 | 68.7 | E129 Jason support x2 |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -2.7 | 66.0 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -2.6 | 63.3 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -2.5 | 60.8 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | reinforce | +9.1 | 69.9 | E133 Brad Gerstner support x3 (new voice) [w=0.86] |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -2.8 | 67.1 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -2.7 | 64.4 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -2.6 | 61.8 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | reinforce | +4.8 | 66.6 | E137 Friedberg support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.84] |
| E137 2023-07-14 | reinforce | +6.1 | 72.8 | E137 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02] |
| E137 2023-07-14 | oppose | -13.9 | 58.8 | E137 Sacks opposes x3 [w=0.97] |
| E137 2023-07-14 | reinforce | +7.4 | 66.3 | E137 Jason support x3 |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -2.7 | 63.6 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -2.5 | 61.1 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | reinforce | +5.8 | 66.9 | E141 Jason support x2 |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -2.7 | 64.2 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -2.6 | 61.7 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | reinforce | +5.8 | 67.4 | E144 Jason support x2 |
| E144 2023-09-01 | reinforce | +6.0 | 73.4 | E144 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02] |
| E144 2023-09-01 | reinforce | +4.6 | 78.0 | E144 Sacks support x3 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.97] |