Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🪙 OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk | ▼ SHORT | primary | 17.0 | -17.0 | — | 337d |
Where the winds are blowing
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
Track record on cg:bitcoin
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 2 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.33, average vs SPY -5.6. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | result | return | vs SPY | scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🪙 Bitcoin bid as the escape hatch from dollar debasement | ▲ LONG | primary | WRONG | -31.5% | -45.2 | 2022-02-20 |
| 🌍 Everything is at all-time highs and the insiders are selling - de-risk | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | RIGHT | +13.4% | +26.9 | 2022-11-13 |
| 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HALF | +9.2% | -4.0 | 2025-05-31 |
| 🪙 Crypto survives the May 2021 regulatory correction | ▲ LONG | primary | WRONG | -19.2% | -13.4 | 2022-05-22 |
| 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold | ▲ LONG | primary | RIGHT | +55.0% | +41.9 | 2025-05-31 |
| 🏛️ Doubling cap gains drains risk capital — the speculative end reprices | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | RIGHT | +57.2% | +53.7 | 2022-04-23 |
| 📈 Coinbase's regulated-first franchise makes it a great business | ▲ LONG | adjacent | WRONG | -56.3% | -54.1 | 2023-04-23 |
| 🪙 NFTs are a durable new asset class, not a liquidity bubble | ▲ LONG | adjacent | RIGHT | +30.9% | +23.5 | 2022-03-13 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding cg:bitcoin, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
So the absence of evidence suggests that maybe there were some pretty major breakthroughs made in cryptography. And then there were a number of people that posted that cryptographic wallets with public keys are now very seriously at risk. So there's a bit of a panic under way in the crypto community about what do we do now? And if this ends up having a set of mathematical solves for number factorization that could lead to breaking public key cryptography before quantum computers come around, which is what everyone assumed would be the thing that would break public key cryptography, then we have a real problem.
There is a bill that passed the last Congress in the House, but Biden basically, he didn't veto it, but he basically, he and the Democrats stopped in the Senate, the Democrats did. It was called FIT 21 And it was authored by French Hill, who's now the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. So we expect that he will be introducing a new version of his bill, probably in the next few weeks. I don't think I'm breaking any news by saying this. I think people expect it. And that's going to provide the framework for market structure.
So we have the reserve and we have the stockpile. So the reserve is just Bitcoin. The goal is long-term preservation. Think of it as like a digital Fort Knox for digital gold. We want to put the digital gold in there. We want to keep it secure. We never want to sell it.
This was basically a statement of commitment from the chairs of the four committees that we're going to get legislation done this year, maybe in the next six months. I mean, that's really the goal. And we've never had that before. So that is pretty monumental.
The main thing it does is it forms an internal working group with the goal of making the US the world leader in crypto. ... And the members of this working group are going to be, there's me, there's the head of the SEC, the Secretary of the Treasury, and all the agencies and departments that have an interest in crypto.
But there's like, I don't think you could get 10 crypto people to agree on how you regulate that second category because some people believe I should be able to issue an NFT on anything and I should be able to trade that.
But anyways, the point is, if Sacks can really push the adoption of stable coins, number one, and then number two, is to incentivize much, much cheaper transactional rails, then I think he can go to Bitcoin and these other more long-tail crypto projects off of a back of momentum.
I think a lot of people had been hesitant to start new crypto companies, and there's a belief and confidence in the new administration, the SEC, etc.
Listen, I am very bullish Bitcoin. I love all the energy of our society around it
But I do think Bitcoin will at some point be a serious threat to the US dollar. And that just is what it is
It should be kind of store of value and alternative. It's just going to take over gold
And the reason they're that angry at them is they were purposely not defining the rules in certain cases and then going after people after not having to find it in order to kind of like play a gotcha game. It was very dishonorable. And Paul sees all that and there's no way he's going to allow that
I think there's many more traditional forms of economic growth that we can have before we need to make ICOs legal and easier.
But you're not free to create a token, right? There should be some clear path of regulation for that.
So look, the bottom line here is that I think that we are close to having clear rules of the road codified by Congress, which is what the crypto industry has been asking for. And the days of Gensler terrorizing crypto companies by issuing Wells notices without clarifying what the rules are that he is prosecuting, those days are about to be over. So I think this is why the crypto markets are rallying.
No, it's a totally correlated asset. I mean, there will be a point, and it's probably in our lifetime where it is an independent asset and a non-speculative store of value. There will be that day, but that day is not now.
The deregulatory nature on its own benefits markets that have been encumbered by regulatory oversight and regulatory challenges like crypto, finance and fintech. Those types of businesses are clearly going to benefit or expected to benefit significantly by being able to launch products more quickly and have features and ways that they can generate revenue that they might be challenged to do under the current regulatory schemas.
I said the breakout asset was going to be Bitcoin
it's going to be gold, it's going to be Bitcoin
I've literally talked to Kamala Harris at lunch about this specific topic of regulation through litigation. As a lawyer, she got it immediately and she knows it's a problem. She's even mentioned in one of her speeches that that's something that they're going to deal with.
it's very clear that he was pro-innovation. So he was really supportive of AI in the details that he talked about. He was very supportive of crypto in those details. And he's very much low regulation, low taxation.
Now they're backing this guy for his policies on war, immigration, crypto and more. This election is referendum on those issues.
But if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge against the establishment and the traditional financial system, and you are threatening to take that wealth away, I could see how 80% of those folks show up to the ballot box and say, all right, which one of you will just leave me alone?
I think we're going to have a crypto framework and it's worth probably five points in this election.
And now the crypto people have basically had a political awakening and realized they have to get involved in the political system.