cg:bitcoin

Bitcoin

crypto all instruments
+0.0
net board stance what this means
78811.99
-0.4% · close 2026-09-08
+22% / +28% / -30%
1m / 3m / 12m
-8%
vs SPY since 2024-08-16
31%
of 52w range · -36.8% off high
0/3
hit rate as primary · α -19

Where we stand — 0 live ideas

No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Sacks
Sacks w=1.11 crypto
8 ideas (0 live) · last heard E218
+5
pushes up
JO
Joe Lonsdale w=1.00 politics-market guest ×1.0
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E206
+5
pushes up
BR
Brian Armstrong guest ×0.5
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E77
+4
pushes up
Chamath
Chamath w=1.00 crypto
8 ideas (0 live) · last heard E208
+3
pushes up
MA
Mark Cuban guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E198
+3
pushes up
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E206
+2
pushes up
KE
Keith Rabois guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E207
+2
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg w=1.08 crypto
7 ideas (0 live) · last heard E206
+1
pushes up
Jason
Jason w=0.69 crypto
6 ideas (0 live) · last heard E205
-2
pushes down
AA
Aaron Levie guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E208
-2
pushes down

Track record on cg:bitcoin

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 1 partial / 2 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.17, average α -18.9. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
🪙 Bitcoin bid as the escape hatch from dollar debasement ▲ LONG primary MISS -31.5% -45.2 2022-02-20
🌍 Everything is at all-time highs and the insiders are selling - de-risk ▼ SHORT adjacent HIT +13.4% +26.9 2022-11-13
🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework ▲ LONG adjacent PARTIAL +9.2% -4.0 2025-05-31
🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold ▲ LONG primary PARTIAL +33.9% +1.9 2025-11-30
🪙 Crypto survives the May 2021 regulatory correction ▲ LONG primary MISS -19.2% -13.4 2022-05-22
🏛️ Doubling cap gains drains risk capital — the speculative end reprices ▼ SHORT adjacent HIT +57.2% +53.7 2022-04-23
📈 Coinbase's regulated-first franchise makes it a great business ▲ LONG adjacent MISS -56.3% -54.1 2023-04-23
🪙 NFTs are a durable new asset class, not a liquidity bubble ▲ LONG adjacent HIT +30.9% +23.5 2022-03-13

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding cg:bitcoin, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 1:42:33
So we have the reserve and we have the stockpile. So the reserve is just Bitcoin. The goal is long-term preservation. Think of it as like a digital Fort Knox for digital gold. We want to put the digital gold in there. We want to keep it secure. We never want to sell it.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 1:57:46
There is a bill that passed the last Congress in the House, but Biden basically, he didn't veto it, but he basically, he and the Democrats stopped in the Senate, the Democrats did. It was called FIT 21 And it was authored by French Hill, who's now the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. So we expect that he will be introducing a new version of his bill, probably in the next few weeks. I don't think I'm breaking any news by saying this. I think people expect it. And that's going to provide the framework for market structure.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 34:27
This was basically a statement of commitment from the chairs of the four committees that we're going to get legislation done this year, maybe in the next six months. I mean, that's really the goal. And we've never had that before. So that is pretty monumental.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 1:51:35
The main thing it does is it forms an internal working group with the goal of making the US the world leader in crypto. ... And the members of this working group are going to be, there's me, there's the head of the SEC, the Secretary of the Treasury, and all the agencies and departments that have an interest in crypto.
AA Aaron Levie oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E208 · 2024-12-20 ▶ 16:22
But there's like, I don't think you could get 10 crypto people to agree on how you regulate that second category because some people believe I should be able to issue an NFT on anything and I should be able to trade that.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E208 · 2024-12-20 ▶ 14:35
But anyways, the point is, if Sacks can really push the adoption of stable coins, number one, and then number two, is to incentivize much, much cheaper transactional rails, then I think he can go to Bitcoin and these other more long-tail crypto projects off of a back of momentum.
KE Keith Rabois support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E207 · 2024-12-13 ▶ 1:05:07
I think a lot of people had been hesitant to start new crypto companies, and there's a belief and confidence in the new administration, the SEC, etc.
JO Joe Lonsdale support ×2 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 43:18
Listen, I am very bullish Bitcoin. I love all the energy of our society around it
Gavin Baker Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 31:31
But I do think Bitcoin will at some point be a serious threat to the US dollar. And that just is what it is
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 29:40
It should be kind of store of value and alternative. It's just going to take over gold
JO Joe Lonsdale support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 20:58
And the reason they're that angry at them is they were purposely not defining the rules in certain cases and then going after people after not having to find it in order to kind of like play a gotcha game. It was very dishonorable. And Paul sees all that and there's no way he's going to allow that
Jason Jason support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 46:04
But you're not free to create a token, right? There should be some clear path of regulation for that.
Chamath Chamath brush_off ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 46:10
I think there's many more traditional forms of economic growth that we can have before we need to make ICOs legal and easier.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 16:20
No, it's a totally correlated asset. I mean, there will be a point, and it's probably in our lifetime where it is an independent asset and a non-speculative store of value. There will be that day, but that day is not now.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 10:41
The deregulatory nature on its own benefits markets that have been encumbered by regulatory oversight and regulatory challenges like crypto, finance and fintech. Those types of businesses are clearly going to benefit or expected to benefit significantly by being able to launch products more quickly and have features and ways that they can generate revenue that they might be challenged to do under the current regulatory schemas.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 19:22
So look, the bottom line here is that I think that we are close to having clear rules of the road codified by Congress, which is what the crypto industry has been asking for. And the days of Gensler terrorizing crypto companies by issuing Wells notices without clarifying what the rules are that he is prosecuting, those days are about to be over. So I think this is why the crypto markets are rallying.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 21:55
it's going to be gold, it's going to be Bitcoin
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 25:50
I said the breakout asset was going to be Bitcoin
MA Mark Cuban support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E198 · 2024-10-03 ▶ 1:19:52
I've literally talked to Kamala Harris at lunch about this specific topic of regulation through litigation. As a lawyer, she got it immediately and she knows it's a problem. She's even mentioned in one of her speeches that that's something that they're going to deal with.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E183 · 2024-06-14 ▶ 10:58
Now they're backing this guy for his policies on war, immigration, crypto and more. This election is referendum on those issues.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E183 · 2024-06-14 ▶ 14:05
it's very clear that he was pro-innovation. So he was really supportive of AI in the details that he talked about. He was very supportive of crypto in those details. And he's very much low regulation, low taxation.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E181 · 2024-05-31 ▶ 58:48
And now the crypto people have basically had a political awakening and realized they have to get involved in the political system.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E181 · 2024-05-31 ▶ 59:39
I think we're going to have a crypto framework and it's worth probably five points in this election.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E181 · 2024-05-31 ▶ 1:01:02
But if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge against the establishment and the traditional financial system, and you are threatening to take that wealth away, I could see how 80% of those folks show up to the ballot box and say, all right, which one of you will just leave me alone?
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E181 · 2024-05-31 ▶ 57:13
And if you look at what this price chart could indicate, is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation, it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets.