📈 Post-vaccine travel demand blows the roof off
Vaccinated consumers will underwrite their own risk and refuse further lockdowns; pent-up demand for travel surges hard enough that operators are battening down the hatches for it.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 19.1 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG ABNB
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -2.2% · α -9.1%
2022-04-17
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-04-17 → 2022-04-17 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ABNB (primary play). ABNB fell 2.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -2.2% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +6.8% → α = -2.2 − (+6.8) = -9.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Brad Gerstner
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-04-17)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ABNB | stock | PRIMARY | Chesky's demand comment is the cited signal; Airbnb is the most direct read on the surge |
| ▲ LONG | JETS | etf | adjacent | airline basket, highest-beta expression of a travel demand surge |
| ▲ LONG | UAL | stock | adjacent | Gerstner's own former largest position, referenced in the same conversation |
Mention log
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=0.95 · n=22
· E29 (2021-04-17) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:03:46
SUPPORT
“Chesky went on CNBC this morning and basically said they are battening down all the hatches because there's no... The demand for travel is literally going to blow the roof off the building.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -16.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E29 2021-04-17 | init | +19.1 | 19.1 | E29 born by Brad Gerstner (sentiment x2) [w=0.95] |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -0.6 | 15.6 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.6 | 13.2 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.4 | 10.8 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.4 | 8.4 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.1 | 3.4 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.1 | 3.2 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.1 | 3.0 | E76 silent |