+0.0
net board stance
what this means
5.19
-0.8% · close 2026-09-08
-0% / -1% / -10%
1m / 3m / 12m
-105%
vs SPY since 2023-10-27
48%
of 52w range · -15.6% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on TPVG
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -78.5% | -129.5 | 2025-02-04 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding TPVG, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Sacks
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E120 · 2023-03-17
▶ 26:08
Moreover, I always try to talk founders out of taking venture debt, whether from SVB or elsewhere.
Jason
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E119 · 2023-03-11
▶ 31:06
And this is exactly what happened in 2008, when people started giving those no recourse or no background check mortgages. Remember those? Where like you didn't have to do a background check to get a mortgage? That's what happened in venture. They just gave these, I saw it firsthand, willy-nilly.
Friedberg
oppose ×3
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E119 · 2023-03-11
▶ 25:06
I get it, but the asset as an asset class, we can make fun of it all we want. It's actually performed pretty well. These guys have generated typically 18% as an industry kind of returns.
Sacks
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E119 · 2023-03-11
▶ 1:14:16
So after the conversation we had on the show about venture debt, I'm like, I don't really like that SVB is in this business. So I told my guys, set up an account somewhere else.
Sacks
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E114 · 2023-02-04
▶ 55:54
So look, I just wonder what I don't trust is whether the return models on venture debt that were created over the last five to 10 years will be a good predictor of what the returns will be in the next five to 10 years when a lot of the mortality that should have happened in the past now happens in the future.
Jason
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E114 · 2023-02-04
▶ 51:50
On top of all this inefficiency is a dependence on venture debt. I don't know if you're seeing this, Sacks, but the amount of focus on adding debt to unprofitable companies over the last five years has been just extraordinary.