+42.0
net board stance
what this means
32.56
+1.1% · close 2026-09-08
-5% / -3% / +26%
1m / 3m / 12m
+14%
vs SPY since 2022-08-13
58%
of 52w range · -13.7% off high
1/3
hit rate as primary · α -9
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 84.0 | +42.0 | EARLY | 1013d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on ARKX
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 2 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.33, average α -9.2. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -34.6% | -24.0 | 2022-06-13 |
| 🤖 Space companies stay cheap until they have non-government revenue | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -10.1% | -43.7 | 2024-03-24 |
| 📈 Space sector is overfunded with one real customer | ▼ SHORT | primary | HIT | +30.8% | +39.9 | 2022-08-28 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding ARKX, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Elon has caught up... he bought Cursor, he's got that team... and he brought in his killers from SpaceX. And he did that in six short months. Never count Elon out. He's frequently late. He's never wrong.
to catch up and become a true frontier lab. But if he fails at that, he's got the put option of just selling the compute at pretty attractive prices to the frontier labs.
Grok 4.6 is Pareto dominant on a lot of measures... very few of these investors talk about Grok at all... Maybe people should start to consider Grok when they think about SpaceX. [And] there's a lot ahead for SpaceX — the SpaceX story isn't over.
I got my first distribution from a fund I'm in. I'm in a couple of funds that are in SpaceX.
I thought it was a very bullish earnings call. I was a little bit surprised that the stock went down... not only was it a beat and raise, but Elon spoke to a lot of their plans — Starship paves the way for the V3 satellite... 20 times more capacity per launch.
Starlink is just an unbelievable juggernaut cash machine... $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA [this quarter]... The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within 18 months. That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what Elon is doing.
now you have a company at 1.4 trillion that I think if you take a three or four year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation
the SpaceX IPO where we were also investors and we also bought in the IPO, ... trading at $2 trillion on roughly $35 billion of forward revenue. ... I still think there's a lot of meat on the bone on SpaceX, on Anthropic, on OpenAI. ... these things can be compounders. They're going to compound at the rate they compound revenue. ... well over 30% for the next many years.
There is very, very meager supply and there's effectively infinite demand. So that probably pulls forward the economic equation to want to go to space. But then again, that's going to prefer SpaceX and their compute stack and their compute decisions over the hyperscalers ... you're going to have a cost of an output token, I think terrestrially, particularly from the hyperscalers, be a little economically lopsided versus SpaceX once they get it to scale.
to stand up a one gigawatt data center, it's $35 billion in semiconductors and ... $25 billion of power and cooling equipment, and that is clearly inflationary ... When Starship is reusable, it's going to cost $5 billion to put a gigawatt of compute into space. ... you're $40 billion to put the gig into space. ... everybody who's a SpaceX investor or employee has had a chance to sell every six months for the last 10 years. ... Almost half the employees at SpaceX bought on the IPO.
It's an incredible company. It's a one of one. ... the highest price to sales was essentially these last few days. And now it's just going to grow into its valuation and generally just grow valuation.
I do think all these guys are going to have to, in order to gain wider spread capital markets attention, like Elon has had to do with SpaceX, are going to have to find business models that have kind of near-term viability that don't depend on government contracts.
If you think about what the next five to ten years can bring, Jason, at what you said earlier about making ourselves a multi-planetary species, what an inspiring thing that these thousands of employees across these three businesses did.
I am concerned about, frankly, the lack of commercial readiness for this industry. I feel like in terms of the hype cycle, we're at that early point where the investment dollars and the number of companies exceeds the market demand. ... the challenge is just it's another product market fit question, right? The market is one customer today.
So there's clearly a great deal of momentum in this industry. The question is always what's the market at the end? ... And we're going to find out over the next couple of years, is there a tourism market? Historically, there's been an interest in a market for visual satellites. But if you look at some of the financials of companies like Planet Labs, they did a few acquisitions in space imaging. And the revenue hasn't really taken off there. And then mining was always this other question. Can we go out and mine rare minerals from space? And that one is just, if you do the math on it, it's so far away, it's impossible to kind of model.
So I don't know, I think this is the beginning of the beginning. I tweeted this out. But basically, if you think about, and there's other stuff that we can't talk about with some other companies that we are all involved in, David and I particularly. But here's the point, guys, between sending people and making us an interplanetary species by creating pervasive Internet access, and by enabling us to safely and reliably transport people either point to point suborbitally or basically into space, we are completely reimagining how the human race can work.
What Friedberg said is so true, which is coming out of the Apollo program, we really created so much technological innovation, it propelled the US forward. We unfortunately gave a lot of it up, but hopefully this time around we can do it again.
And then they take that money and they invest in creating this space race, this industry that could absolutely transform humanity for the centuries to come. ... It really speaks to how semiconductors and computing came out of the space race of the mid-20th century. And we could see this next industrial age arise for the space industrial age because of these incentives that have been created by the government.