🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E110 (2023-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:03:23 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“I would have a combination of cash and the front end of the yield curve. So T-bills all the way up to two-year bonds. ... probably by the end of this year, 5% pretty safely ... I would rather miss the first 10 or 15% of a rally”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E110 (2023-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:31 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“Why wouldn't you just put all your money in short-term T-bills? You earn five, five and a half percent risk free. Like, set it and forget it. ... capital flows are moving hugely right now from equities into bonds,”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E118 (2023-03-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 8:48 SUPPORT

“when the risk-free rate is somewhere north of 5 or 5.5% and banks are willing to give you 6.5% in the short term, you have to generate more than three times that to make an investment make sense when you're investing in the long term.”

Jason rates w=0.86 · n=7 · E120 (2023-03-17) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 51:17 SUPPORT

“And then finally, you can go to TreasuryDirect.gov right now and buy short term government debt. And I literally have startups doing this who have major treasuries.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E120 (2023-03-17) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 52:37 SUPPORT

“What I'd much rather see a startup do is buy 100% US T-bill backed money market fund run by the absolute biggest of the big financial institutions because you can get in and out of it at any time you want without paying a fee.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E121 (2023-03-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 18:57 SUPPORT

“Then how bond holders will react to all of this stuff is they'll just start to find different assets, probably the front end of the curve, money market, cash, gold, and they'll just abandon all these assets.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E142 (2023-08-18) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:10:41 SUPPORT

“let's just point out the opportunity cost to you. You could buy treasuries that pay you 5.5%... Your actual cost on that capital that you're using to finance the building yourself to buy the debt is costing you 5.5% a year of risk-free income for the $9 million.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E146 (2023-09-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 48:29 SUPPORT

“when prevailing rates are at five or six percent, and you can own those things or you can own structured credit for 11 to 13 percent, our business, unfortunately, does not look so good”

Jason rates w=0.86 · n=7 · E146 (2023-09-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:20:32 SUPPORT

“You've got to beat 5%, 6%, 7%, or whatever people are going to get on those other instruments, corporate debt, you know, 10%, 11%, 12%. You've got a really hard bogey to beat here.”