📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.95 · n=22 · E133 (2023-06-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 9:38 SUPPORT

“But I think that anybody who does an IPO today is going to demand a rate of return into that offering that is a significant margin of safety relative to all deals that were done in 20 and 21”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E133 (2023-06-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 11:35 SUPPORT

“They could have gotten it out for 40 something, but it's a mid 20s billion dollar company.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.95 · n=22 · E141 (2023-08-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 58:06 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“I don't think it'll look like a light switch, but it will be. I think we're going to see five, six, seven IPOs, good size IPOs in Q4. We'll probably see closer to 10 in Q1, and then it will start opening up in the back half of next year”

Bill Gurley (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=1.11 · n=9 · E141 (2023-08-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 53:58 SUPPORT

“There's two things. I think that cleaning up complexity is a great reason for the public market. And Brad already said, we've seen a massive recovery in software stocks. Like, the marks are better than they were two years ago.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E143 (2023-08-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 36:52 SUPPORT

“And trying to stretch to a 60 or $70 billion print, I think is really tough. This is a, honestly, a 15 to $20 billion company.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E143 (2023-08-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 43:45 OPPOSE

“I don't think there is a public market right now. There's no IPO window... I think we've all heard the commentary from Morgan Stanley that they don't think the window is opening until Q2, Q3 of next year, maybe.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E143 (2023-08-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 42:28 SUPPORT

“the scenario in which you can IPO is if the company is fundamentally good, it will be able to IPO at some valuation and that valuation may be a significant down round from their last private round.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E146 (2023-09-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 25:56 OPPOSE

“I don't think that this was the great reopening that we all were hoping for. ... net-net, very poor IPO construction by the banks, and the grand reopening was a grand closing, I think.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E146 (2023-09-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 31:04 SUPPORT

“it's sort of a green shoot that they got out, but we're never going back to the valuation levels that we had a couple of years ago during a giant ZERP-created asset bubble”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E146 (2023-09-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 24:11 SUPPORT

“Six quarters of down market has suddenly turned into a bunch of green shoots.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E151 (2023-10-27) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 49:49 OPPOSE

“the three IPOs we've had, have not fared particularly well, and the market just seems to get harder and harder for tech companies, even profitable ones”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E151 (2023-10-27) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:03:12 OPPOSE

“Clavio is down 16% since this IPO ... even for the names that just IPO-ed, it's not looking too good”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E158 (2023-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 36:50 OPPOSE

“the capital markets in the United States are not ready or not in a position to support all this IPO liquidity. Why? The banks won't underwrite. There aren't enough researchers, research analysts that will cover these stocks.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E164 (2024-02-02) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:08:20 SUPPORT

“And so if it goes out at $5, it's going to be between a 50% and two-thirds haircut. ... we talked about this a bunch, the downrod IPOs, Instacart, I think, being the best example.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E164 (2024-02-02) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:09:30 SUPPORT

“And I think that that's really the thing that will determine whether it's worth 5 billion or 10 billion or frankly 2 billion.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E164 (2024-02-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:12:25 SUPPORT

“The $5 billion valuation seems, I think, pretty good. I mean, is it down from 10 at the peak in 2021? Sure, but everything is down since that peak.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E168 (2024-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:15:24 SUPPORT

“I think like for you to make an investment at a $5 billion valuation here, you've really got to believe that the growth continues at this rate and it doesn't revert back to the mean growth rate of the last couple of years of basically 5%, which is roughly flatlined. ... I mean, you could argue it's probably worth, in the best case, in the $2 to $3 billion kind of valuation range”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E168 (2024-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:18:03 SUPPORT

“It's kind of like in the mid, you know, kind of two, three, four billion dollar ish range. The big problem is the ARPU, because these are not users that represent sort of Facebook's bread and butter.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E168 (2024-03-01) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:19:20 OPPOSE

“But you can see that as a challenge or an opportunity, because if there are ARPU is only 10% of Facebook's, there's a lot of headroom there to grow it.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E168 (2024-03-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:19:35 SUPPORT

“The issue with this user base is they're incredibly sophisticated internet users who don't click on ads and are kind of anti ads as opposed to, you know, the general population on a Facebook or a generic service.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E171 (2024-03-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:02:18 SUPPORT

“But like this last three or four weeks, I think people have been so excited and rearing to go.”