📈 Profitability plus buybacks is the setup for the tech turn
Jason's read of what turns the market: with growth capital scarce, public tech companies prove a path to profitability, freeze headcount and buy back their own cheap stock — Uber's planned ~20% buyback is the template — and rising earnings on shrinking share counts re-rates the cohort while the discipline trickles down into private valuations.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 49.4 WATCH
EMBER
band · contested
▲ LONG UBER
expression · bullish equities
HIT
outcome · R +88.3% · α +45.4%
2024-10-27
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-10-27 → 2024-10-27 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG UBER (primary play). UBER rose 88.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +88.3% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +42.9% → α = +88.3 − (+42.9) = +45.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 88.3, α 45.4)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Jason | opposed: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: PKW→PARTIAL (+37.3%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-10-27)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | UBER | stock | PRIMARY | the named example — profitability inflection plus a large announced buyback |
| ▲ LONG | PKW | etf | adjacent | buyback-weighted US equity basket, the direct expression of the mechanism |
Mention log
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E165 (2024-02-09) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 30:01
SUPPORT
“And then what I'm hearing from a lot of executives is cutting these highly stock comped executives who also have big cash comp, cutting them, putting lieutenants in charge, and then moving more jobs to other locations where people don't expect stock based comp... So as everybody optimizes these businesses, I mean, Facebook even did a dividend.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -36.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E151 2023-10-27 | init | +34.0 | 34.0 | E151 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.97] |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | reinforce | +9.8 | 42.5 | E156 Jason support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -1.7 | 40.8 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | reinforce | +8.6 | 49.4 | E158 Jason support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -2.0 | 47.4 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -1.9 | 45.5 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -1.8 | 43.7 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -1.7 | 41.9 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -1.7 | 40.3 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | oppose | -10.1 | 30.2 | E164 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.84] |
| E164 2024-02-02 | oppose | -9.3 | 20.9 | E164 Jason opposes x1 [w=0.97] |
| E165 2024-02-09 | reinforce | +11.5 | 32.4 | E165 Jason support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.97] |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -1.3 | 31.1 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -1.1 | 25.4 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -1.0 | 23.4 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.9 | 20.7 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.6 | 13.2 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.4 | 10.8 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.4 | 8.4 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | reinforce | +16.1 | 23.9 | E201 Jason support x3 [w=0.97] |