📈 This drawdown is the best vintage in a decade to build and deploy

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E100 (2022-10-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 35:58 SUPPORT

“All of the, if you look back in history since 2000, all of the best performing funds of all times were the ones that were formed right in the middle of the downturns. 03, 08, 9 These are the vintages that have always been the best.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E100 (2022-10-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 34:29 SUPPORT

“And I've talked about this before on the show, the consolidation of talent behind the winning ideas, the experiments that actually worked, products that got some traction, are now having an easier time hiring talent.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E114 (2023-02-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 18:39 SUPPORT · horizon 60mo

“So these are like really interesting trends that I think just say that as rates creep back up, and if we can intersect that with some improvements in technology over the next five to 10 years that we've all talked about, it could be a real boon for startups and startup investing.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E114 (2023-02-04) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 21:29 OPPOSE · horizon 36mo

“If that holds true, so that may be kind of a counterbalancing effect here where it may take three years before that effect plays out, where there's more of a dearth of capital.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E114 (2023-02-04) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 24:04 SUPPORT

“I think to the point of Chamath's study that, you know, that the counterintuitive finding in his study was that great companies are created during times when we're not in a bubble”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.95 · n=22 · E118 (2023-03-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 27:06 SUPPORT

“I'm not going to invest in venture in the next two vintages, which may be the best two vintages we've seen in a long time because prices are adjusting”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E118 (2023-03-03) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 48:18 SUPPORT

“This feels like the best it's been for me as an angel investor, seed investor, seed fund for a long time. This is fantastic. Great deal flow.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E118 (2023-03-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 49:11 SUPPORT

“But if you're talking about new investment, new rounds, new companies that are starting with a clean sheet of paper and a blank slate, you're right. Things seem good and normal. People are making intelligent investments.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E120 (2023-03-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 58:33 SUPPORT

“All of that being said, I think I'd rather be an investor today than an investor two years ago or one year ago, because at least the valuations have corrected to some degree.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E120 (2023-03-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:04:10 SUPPORT

“In fact, the contrary point to Sacks' comment is that it is a great time to be buying these shares and it is a great time to be investing and it is a great time because as we've talked about countless times, there are extraordinary technologies from AI to biotech becoming software to fusion to novel applications with AI and SaaS and on and on and on.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E120 (2023-03-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 59:53 OPPOSE

“So even if you think these vintages are great, I don't think they're open for business.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E120 (2023-03-17) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 1:06:33 SUPPORT

“What we did was we just said anybody who gets to an MVP and it's two or three builder co-founders, we'll give them a 25k check. And I did 20 or 30 of these 25k checks in the last couple of months”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E125 (2023-04-21) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 56:31 SUPPORT

“It's so funny you say that, Sacks, because I literally am looking for an office space in San Mateo to start like doing the incubator in person again. And on Monday, I'm having 60 companies come to San Francisco.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E125 (2023-04-21) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 54:07 SUPPORT

“But look, I think all of this, this maelstrom is great for an investor.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.95 · n=22 · E133 (2023-06-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 56:13 SUPPORT

“If you do those three things, you know, simultaneously, like, you got a good shot at producing really incredible vintage.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.95 · n=22 · E134 (2023-06-24) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 1:11:48 OPPOSE

“So why hasn't Altimeter purchased any of this? Because the prices aren't low enough to induce me to get off the sidelines to purchase the shares.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E141 (2023-08-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 45:26 SUPPORT

“this seems like the greatest setup ever. Feels like the setup last year of buying equities when everybody was scared. If everybody is tightening their belts, if VC funds are not going to deploy, this feels like the time to be deploying.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.95 · n=22 · E141 (2023-08-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 46:00 OPPOSE

“And while this might happen, while this might happen, I'm going to take the other side. I don't think that's what the lived experiences of most VCs in Silicon Valley today on Series A, Series B, Series C, is certainly not in the area we're competing.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E143 (2023-08-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 43:45 SUPPORT

“And those businesses, by the way, that we saw on the.com boom and the global financial crisis that were able to do that during the Doldrum Death Valley March that everyone's going through right now, they emerged victorious... On the other side of this trial era, a number of very high quality companies will emerge”