◢ ALL-IN ALPHA research only · never trades · 2026-09-10

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📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction

The market's ~15-20% haircut to Adobe on the Figma announcement is an overreaction: Figma's ARR ramp (700k -> 4m -> 23m -> 77m -> 210m -> ~450m est. 2022, ~800m guided 2023) means 50x current ARR is ~25x forward and 1.5-2B of ARR within a few years, and the deal removes the existential cloud/collaboration threat to Creative Cloud while turning Adobe back into a growth story. Chamath takes the other side: the premium implies Adobe's existing revenue base is under more pressure than models assume, and between the cash, the dilution and the 20% re-rating the real price tag is $30-40B against decaying core earnings.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 55.0 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG ADBE
expression · bullish equities
HIT
outcome · R +78.6% · α +62.7%
2023-09-17
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG ADBE (primary play). ADBE rose 78.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +78.6% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +15.9% → α = +78.6 − (+15.9) = +62.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 78.6, α 62.7)
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    · MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Chamath

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-09-17)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG ADBEstock PRIMARY the acquirer whose stock the besties argue was oversold on the announcement

Mention log

Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E96 (2022-09-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 6:39 SUPPORT · horizon 18mo
“And so, okay, so yeah, so Adobe is paying 50 times current ARR. But if you believe this, they're only paying divided by two, they're paying 25 times end of next year, so like 18 months from now. And then you figure, you know, within say two years after that, they're going to be, you know, at somewhere between one and a half and two billion of ARR. And as you guys know, there just aren't that many SaaS companies that even get to a billion of ARR. So I don't think Adobe is making a bad deal here.”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E96 (2022-09-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 13:54 SUPPORT
“It's a transformative deal in the same way the WhatsApp deal was for Facebook. It removes one of the two existential threats to Adobe, and it turns Adobe, I guess, into a growth story now.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E96 (2022-09-17) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 25:02 SUPPORT
“And people thought they were overpaying. And then YouTube, everyone thought it was crazy. They paid a billion six for that business, and it's probably the greatest acquisition of all time.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E96 (2022-09-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 10:21 OPPOSE
“you have this sort of parade of terribles for Adobe that they're going to have to navigate, right? They have a very large portion of cash. They have a large portion of stock. They have decaying earnings in their core business that they now have to explain.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E108 (2022-12-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:07:24 OPPOSE
“Because if you take those three things, I mean, oh my God, they just absolutely top ticked before any of this stuff was known. So today Adobe could probably buy this thing for like 7 billion instead of 20 billion.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E122 (2023-03-31) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:01:18 OPPOSE
“This is yet another reason that Figma really needs to close the acquisition from Adobe. I mean, it's like the value of these apps are just getting gutted.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E130 (2023-05-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:09:17 OPPOSE
“My thought on the Adobe thing for what it's worth is like, do they want a mulligan on this $20 billion Figma thing?”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E143 (2023-08-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 47:25 OPPOSE
“They clearly had a win in the Microsoft Activision thing and now they're probably going to find issue with the Adobe Figma thing”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason
Jason w=0.97
1 scoring event · 39% of moves
+40.8 → net +40.8
Chamath
Chamath w=0.84
5 scoring events · 36% of moves
+0.0 / -37.3 → net -37.3
Sacks
Sacks w=0.89
1 scoring event · 14% of moves
+14.2 → net +14.2
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.87
1 scoring event · 11% of moves
+11.1 → net +11.1

⏳ decay drained -28.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E96 2022-09-17 init +40.8 40.8 E96 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.97]
E96 2022-09-17 reinforce +14.2 55.0 E96 Sacks support x3 (new voice) [w=0.89]
E96 2022-09-17 oppose -12.1 42.9 E96 Chamath opposes x3 [w=0.84]
E96 2022-09-17 reinforce +11.1 54.0 E96 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.87]
E97 2022-09-23 decay -2.2 51.9 E97 silent
E98 2022-10-01 decay -2.1 49.8 E98 silent
E99 2022-10-07 decay -2.0 47.8 E99 silent
E100 2022-10-14 decay -1.9 45.9 E100 silent
E101 2022-10-22 decay -1.8 44.1 E101 silent
E102 2022-10-29 decay -1.8 42.3 E102 silent
E103 2022-11-05 decay -1.7 40.6 E103 silent
E105 2022-11-19 decay -1.6 39.0 E105 silent
E106 2022-12-03 decay -1.6 37.4 E106 silent
E107 2022-12-10 decay -1.5 35.9 E107 silent
E108 2022-12-16 oppose -12.1 23.9 E108 Chamath opposes x3 [w=0.84]
E109 2022-12-24 decay -1.0 22.9 E109 silent
E110 2023-01-06 decay -0.9 22.0 E110 silent
E111 2023-01-13 decay -0.9 21.1 E111 silent
E112 2023-01-20 decay -0.8 20.3 E112 silent
E113 2023-01-27 decay -0.8 19.5 E113 silent
E114 2023-02-04 decay -0.8 18.7 E114 silent
E115 2023-02-11 decay -0.7 17.9 E115 silent
E116 2023-02-17 decay -0.7 17.2 E116 silent
E118 2023-03-03 decay -0.7 16.5 E118 silent
E119 2023-03-11 decay -0.7 15.9 E119 silent
E120 2023-03-17 decay -0.6 15.2 E120 silent
E121 2023-03-24 decay -0.6 14.6 E121 silent
E122 2023-03-31 oppose -8.0 6.6 E122 Chamath opposes x1 [w=0.84]
E123 2023-04-07 decay -0.3 6.3 E123 silent
E124 2023-04-14 decay -0.3 6.1 E124 silent
E125 2023-04-21 decay -0.2 5.8 E125 silent
E126 2023-04-28 decay -0.2 5.6 E126 silent
E128 2023-05-12 decay -0.2 5.4 E128 silent
E129 2023-05-19 decay -0.2 5.1 E129 silent
E130 2023-05-26 oppose -5.1 0.0 E130 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.84]
E131 2023-06-02 decay · 0.0 E131 silent
E132 2023-06-10 decay · 0.0 E132 silent
E133 2023-06-16 decay · 0.0 E133 silent
E134 2023-06-24 decay · 0.0 E134 silent
E135 2023-07-01 decay · 0.0 E135 silent
E136 2023-07-09 decay · 0.0 E136 silent
E137 2023-07-14 decay · 0.0 E137 silent
E139 2023-07-27 decay · 0.0 E139 silent
E140 2023-08-04 decay · 0.0 E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11 decay · 0.0 E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18 decay · 0.0 E142 silent
E143 2023-08-25 oppose · 0.0 E143 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.84]
E144 2023-09-01 decay · 0.0 E144 silent