⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda
A US/Israeli military engagement with Iran does not stay a two-day operation: Iran is not Iraq or Libya, it is a central BRICS player, ships roughly 90% of its oil to China and signed a defence agreement with Russia in January, so it has backup, and its conventional weapons can damage Israel, US assets in theatre and regional energy production. The result is an oil price that could double toward $100-112 a barrel, feeding back into global inflation and GDP, plus a protracted engagement that derails the Trump agenda and could sink the administration.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 32.4 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG USO
expression · bullish energy
HIT
outcome · R +56.4% · α +30.7%
2026-06-13
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-06-13 → 2026-06-13 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG USO (primary play). USO rose 56.4% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +56.4% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +25.7% → α = +56.4 − (+25.7) = +30.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 56.4, α 30.7)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg | opposed: Chamath, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-06-13)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | USO | etf | PRIMARY | front-month WTI is the direct expression of a Gulf supply shock |
| ▲ LONG | BNO | etf | adjacent | Brent is the benchmark most exposed to a Hormuz or Gulf disruption |
| ▲ LONG | XLE | etf | adjacent | US producers re-rate on a structurally higher oil deck |
Mention log
TU
Tucker Carlson
(guest ×0.5)
no energy track record
· E231 (2025-06-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:30:20
SUPPORT
“Their conventional weapons are fearsome and could do great damage to our allies, to Israel and to American assets in that area and also to energy production in countries that we rely on. So I think the downsides are really kind of overwhelming. I think a protracted, meaning anything over a day or two engagement with Iran would derail the Trump agenda and the presidency.”
Chamath
energy w=0.55 · n=22
· E231 (2025-06-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:34:37
SUPPORT
“I mean, you could see oil double, double. What happens to the economy of the world, of world GDP, of everything, of inflation. If you have oil at 100 bucks a barrel, 112 bucks a barrel, it's not good.”
Friedberg
energy w=0.78 · n=18
· E233 (2025-06-28) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 19:14
SUPPORT
“I don't think the Israelis are going to sit by quietly and allow this Iranian regime to continue to go out and build up a military that's constantly shouting death to Israel, death to the USA. And I think that they've taken their first shot and I don't think it's their last.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -11.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E231 2025-06-13 | init | +19.1 | 19.1 | E231 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.55] |
| E231 2025-06-13 | reinforce | +9.1 | 28.2 | E231 Tucker Carlson support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | oppose | -9.0 | 18.1 | E233 Sacks opposes x1 [w=0.94] |
| E233 2025-06-28 | reinforce | +14.3 | 32.4 | E233 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.78] |
| E233 2025-06-28 | reversal | -19.4 | 13.0 | E233 Chamath flips |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.3 | 6.5 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.2 | 6.0 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -0.2 | 4.3 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -0.2 | 4.1 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -0.1 | 3.5 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -0.1 | 3.4 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -0.1 | 3.2 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -0.1 | 3.1 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -0.1 | 3.0 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -0.1 | 2.9 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -0.1 | 2.7 | E271 silent |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -0.1 | 2.6 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | decay | -0.1 | 2.5 | E273 silent |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -0.1 | 2.4 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -0.1 | 2.3 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -0.1 | 2.2 | E276 silent |