SNAP

Snap Inc.

stock all instruments
-1.8
net board stance what this means
5.45
-0.5% · close 2026-09-08
+2% / -3% / -25%
1m / 3m / 12m
-68%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
29%
of 52w range · -40.1% off high
0/2
hit rate as primary · α -23

Where we stand — 1 live idea

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesflageval in
🏛️ Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms CONTESTED ▼ SHORT adjacent ×0.5 3.7 -1.8 145d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner w=1.41 tech guest ×1.0
3 ideas (0 live) · last heard E118
+6
pushes up
Jason
Jason w=1.00 politics-market
7 ideas (1 live) · last heard E211
+3
pushes up
KE
Keith Rabois guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E207
+3
pushes up
MA
Mark Pincus guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E211
+2
pushes up
TH
Thomas Laffont guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E212
+2
pushes up
AN
Andrew Schulz guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E219
+2
pushes up
RY
Ryan Petersen guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E82
-2
pushes down
MI
Michael Shellenberger guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E109
-2
pushes down
CY
Cyan Banister w=1.00 equities guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E210
-2
pushes down
Sacks
Sacks w=0.97 politics-market
9 ideas (1 live) · last heard E201
-7
pushes down
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.84 politics-market
8 ideas (0 live) · last heard E212
-7
pushes down
Chamath
Chamath w=1.02 politics-market
11 ideas (1 live) · last heard E212
-9
pushes down

What resolves next

kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not

2027-02-02 145d 🏛️ Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms 4

Track record on SNAP

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 2 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.0, average α -23.1. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention ▲ LONG adjacent HIT +24.0% +10.0 2025-03-08
🤖 Apple's privacy push blows up the Google/Facebook ad model ▼ SHORT adjacent HIT +50.3% +60.9 2022-06-18
🏛️ Section 230's algorithmic shield gets rolled back - platform liability overhang ▼ SHORT adjacent MISS -39.4% -59.7 2023-10-07
🏛️ TikTok crackdown impairs ByteDance and hands share back to US platforms ▲ LONG adjacent HIT +175.1% +151.4 2024-01-20
📈 Snap's zero-vote governance and stock-comp dilution keep destroying shareholder value ▼ SHORT primary MISS +1.7% -19.7 2025-02-09
🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable ▲ LONG adjacent HIT +29.2% +10.8 2025-10-25
🤖 Social network effects are not moats - the platforms fragment ▼ SHORT adjacent MISS -137.9% -150.9 2023-10-22
📈 Meta's fact-checking retreat is a value-maximizing political realignment ▲ LONG adjacent PARTIAL +7.7% -13.1 2026-01-11
📈 Zero-vote dual-class governance orphans Snap - and the super-voting era ends at 4% rates ▼ SHORT primary MISS -13.6% -26.5 2023-10-22
🏛️ Facebook Files become a tobacco-style liability event ▼ SHORT adjacent HIT +58.9% +68.7 2022-09-18

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding SNAP, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

AN Andrew Schulz support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable E219 · 2025-03-15 ▶ 1:17:08
So they were losing comics to YouTube because it was more advantageous to put your comedy up on YouTube and build a following and then go sell tickets on the road... Now people are like, I don't even want to do the special because if I put it on YouTube, I can tour for years and really build a fan base. So I have this autonomy.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 53:35
I do worry a lot about the precedent being set here with respect to foreign government actions on US companies in their local countries. Imagine the CCP tells Tesla they have to sell their Chinese operations and give 50% of the Chinese operations to the Chinese government because of their concerns about security
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 45:41
But at the end of the day, the president was very clear that it is completely and entirely worthless without his permit, and he wants to own 50% of this asset. Now, if you're a buyer of something, you're not going to pay $100 billion if you control whether it can exist or not. You're basically going to pay today's equivalent of one franc, which would be one dollar.
TH Thomas Laffont support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 35:52
But I think you put it all together, you know, is 100 billion a reasonable scenario? ... And then could it be a trillion dollar asset, the way Trump has mentioned? I mean, in a world where Facebook's one and a half, right? And the penetration of TikTok in the US is 50% of what Metta is. I don't think it's unrealistic.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 1:17:22
Seems like they're going to strike a deal. Chuck Schumer today is calling for a delay in the ban. I'm sure by the time this episode airs, something will have been worked out to create some space for them to get a deal done. But I think they want to get a deal done and keep TikTok active in the US. Seems like both the Dems and the Republicans are pushing for it.
MA Mark Pincus support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 1:09:11
And so I'm, the best outcome, I think, would be forced to divest and sell to another American company. But if that doesn't happen, I'm kind of nervous about a real backlash.
Jason Jason support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 1:15:38
if you think about the two biggest imports from China right now, it's fentanyl and TikTok. They want to make us addicted. They want to impact our society. They want to divide us. This is a massive psyops that's going on. It is a psyops, and it is a spyware, and it's been proven they spied on journalists. These are bad actors. It has to go.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 1:11:19
So I do agree with Mark that we have to find a suitable home. And I think that we'll probably find one. And I think that it probably happens under the Trump presidency. And whoever gets their hands on it gets their hands on an incredible asset that they will be able to buy extremely cheaply. Because there is no way that there is a fair market value here deal for that asset.
CY Cyan Banister oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 Meta's fact-checking retreat is a value-maximizing political realignment E210 · 2025-01-11 ▶ 1:18:17
I think he's going to have to deal with advertisers next, though. I mean, that's one thing that X doesn't have to deal with as much, and that's going to be the second problem he's going to have is not just the government, but do advertisers want to be next to some of the content that's about to appear.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Meta's fact-checking retreat is a value-maximizing political realignment E210 · 2025-01-11 ▶ 1:18:30
And when he loses tens of billions of dollars in personal net worth, will he make the same decisions? We'll see. But I can tell you, if Kamala Harris had been voted in, he would double down on censorship instead of taking this position. I think he is terrified of Trump and having his company broken up, and he's doing this strictly to appease Trump, which I think putting Dana White on the board is another signal.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Meta's fact-checking retreat is a value-maximizing political realignment E210 · 2025-01-11 ▶ 1:05:37
But again, the lens that I would put on this is now the winds are blowing in a different direction. And I do think it's the value maximizing function... But I do think it's the smart value maximizing decision yet again for Facebook shareholders.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E207 · 2024-12-13 ▶ 1:01:39
So if they'll do it to their own people, they would have no problem doing it to an adversary and, ask yourself, if the shareholders care about money, they would be willing to divest, right? No problem. They want to take the company public. So if you won't divest and get off the board as the CCP, it's because you see this as a valuable tool, right?
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E207 · 2024-12-13 ▶ 1:00:38
I said, you have to look at the Pegasus-like equivalent, infiltration of WhatsApp, having been done on TikTok... But there's probably 1,000 to 10,000 to 15,000 people. I do suspect that state actors are smart enough to figure out how to triangulate who.
KE Keith Rabois support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E207 · 2024-12-13 ▶ 54:56
You don't even have to have a conversation. In my view, TikTok is a threat to the national security of the United States.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 31:56
57% of Gen Zers want to be influencers as their primary career now
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 36:48
I'm not sure the side hustle solves anything
Sacks Sacks oppose ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 33:14
It's like a one in a million shot. It's just not a great thing to want to design your career around
Jason Jason support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 35:06
Having a side hustle makes you anti-fragile
Friedberg Friedberg brush_off ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E199 · 2024-10-11 ▶ 1:09:40
Looks like they gathered some reasonable data.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E199 · 2024-10-11 ▶ 1:10:44
I'm 100% certain that the CCP is using it, because people have tracked already journalists using it. So if they've already done it, it's 100%.
Sacks Sacks oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E199 · 2024-10-11 ▶ 1:09:45
And I think that this idea that it's somehow a propaganda tool around programming our youth, I think that's a moral panic that's been exaggerated.
Jason Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms E195 · 2024-09-06 ▶ 1:01:23
instead of shutting down 230 and causing chaos, to your point, Sacks, which I agree with that it would cause chaos and more censoring
Sacks Sacks oppose ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms E195 · 2024-09-06 ▶ 57:55
I've long held the view that if you want to make online platforms liable as publishers for every piece of user-generated content, then you're going to have very little free speech left
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms E195 · 2024-09-06 ▶ 56:36
I think it is a fig leaf to say that we've, there's a level of abstraction that should give us immunity. I think that these algorithms are taught to iteratively become better and better at hooking people on whatever is trending in that moment.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E176 · 2024-04-26 ▶ 1:22:17
I want to see this thing banned immediately, or divest. I would prefer it be divested, because I think people love it.