📈 The Sphere becomes a replicable immersive-venue format
Friedberg's on-the-record call after opening night: the Sphere is a genuinely new live-entertainment medium (full-dome digital screen plus integrated physical staging), not a one-off arena. Build costs fall from the first unit's $2-2.5B toward a couple hundred million, smaller versions get rolled out IMAX-style, and the content mix broadens well beyond music.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG SPHR
expression · bullish equities
HALF
result · return +19.6% · vs SPY -13.6%
2024-10-07
born 2023-10-07 (E148) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-10-07 → 2024-10-07 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG SPHR (primary play). SPHR rose 19.6% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +19.6% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +33.1% → vs SPY = +19.6 − (+33.1) = -13.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: IMAX→MISS (+1.2%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-10-07)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | SPHR | stock | PRIMARY | Sphere Entertainment Co. owns and operates the venue and the format's rollout economics |
| ▲ LONG | IMAX | stock | adjacent | Friedberg's own analogue for the rollout model — a premium format licensed into many rooms |
| ▲ LONG | MSGE | stock | adjacent | MSG Entertainment is the live-venue read-through if immersive formats lift the whole category |
Mention log newest first
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E148 (2023-10-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:12:13
SUPPORT
“By the way, my prediction on the Sphere, I think there will be dozens of these things soon enough, because this can become a new form of live entertainment venue. It's not just a stage where someone stands on it and plays music. It's a new model, and more than musical artists, I think you'll see new kinds of art and new kinds of things happening in these things.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -29.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E148 2023-10-07 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E148 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E198 silent |