📈 The Sphere becomes a replicable immersive-venue format
Friedberg's on-the-record call after opening night: the Sphere is a genuinely new live-entertainment medium (full-dome digital screen plus integrated physical staging), not a one-off arena. Build costs fall from the first unit's $2-2.5B toward a couple hundred million, smaller versions get rolled out IMAX-style, and the content mix broadens well beyond music.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 30.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG SPHR
expression · bullish equities
PARTIAL
outcome · R +19.6% · α -13.6%
2024-10-07
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-10-07 → 2024-10-07 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG SPHR (primary play). SPHR rose 19.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +19.6% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +33.1% → α = +19.6 − (+33.1) = -13.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: IMAX→MISS (+1.2%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-10-07)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | SPHR | stock | PRIMARY | Sphere Entertainment Co. owns and operates the venue and the format's rollout economics |
| ▲ LONG | IMAX | stock | adjacent | Friedberg's own analogue for the rollout model — a premium format licensed into many rooms |
| ▲ LONG | MSGE | stock | adjacent | MSG Entertainment is the live-venue read-through if immersive formats lift the whole category |
Mention log
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E148 (2023-10-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:12:13
SUPPORT
“By the way, my prediction on the Sphere, I think there will be dozens of these things soon enough, because this can become a new form of live entertainment venue. It's not just a stage where someone stands on it and plays music. It's a new model, and more than musical artists, I think you'll see new kinds of art and new kinds of things happening in these things.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -25.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E148 2023-10-07 | init | +30.3 | 30.3 | E148 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.87] |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.9 | 22.8 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E198 silent |