⚡ US nuclear newbuild stays blocked by regulation — none of the new reactors ship
Chamath's claim is that US nuclear is a regulatory problem, not a technology problem: permitting, zoning and NIMBYism are so constipated that the greatest reactor design in the world still can't get built, and the American companies selling Gen-3/Gen-4 and small modular reactors have no demonstrated capacity — 'none of them work'. Bearish the listed US SMR/advanced-reactor names, which are priced off a buildout that the regulatory stack will not permit on this timeline.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.4 EMBER
EMBER
band · contested
▼ SHORT SMR
expression · bearish energy
MISS
outcome · R -31.5% · α -58.1%
2024-09-01
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-09-01 → 2024-09-01 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT SMR (primary play). SMR rose 31.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -31.5% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.7%
→ α = -31.5 − (+26.7) = -58.1%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -4.8% — did SMR move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg | opposed: Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-09-01)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | SMR | stock | PRIMARY | NuScale — the pure-play listed US small modular reactor developer, valued entirely on getting a first project permitted and built |
| ▼ SHORT | BWXT | stock | adjacent | reactor components and advanced-reactor programs; carries the same US newbuild-permitting risk |
Mention log
Chamath
energy w=0.55 · n=22
· E144 (2023-09-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 52:44
SUPPORT
“My big comment in my thread is just more that I think that the regulatory support in the United States for nuclear is so constipated that it's impossible to get it done. So you could have the greatest technology in the world. I just don't see how the laws change fast enough and the zoning changes fast enough and the NIMBY-ism goes away to make these things viable.”
Friedberg
energy w=0.78 · n=18
· E148 (2023-10-07) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 53:22
SUPPORT
“There's a lot of regulatory capture and incumbency that wants to see these things not succeed. I think we're really denying ourselves, in many cases, the opportunity to realize progress because we're so concerned about any loss. Nuclear fission is a really great example of this. Three Mile Island accident and Fukushima.”
DO
Donald Trump
(guest ×0.5)
no energy track record
· E184 (2024-06-20) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 19:16
SUPPORT
“And the inspectors would go in, they say those walls aren't thick enough, knock them down and build another wall. And the environmental people were brutal.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -31.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E144 2023-09-01 | init | +22.9 | 22.9 | E144 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.55] |
| E144 2023-09-01 | oppose | -9.6 | 13.3 | E144 Jason opposes x1 |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | reinforce | +15.4 | 27.6 | E148 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.78] |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -0.6 | 15.6 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.6 | 13.2 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | reinforce | +10.8 | 18.3 | E184 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.78] |
| E184 2024-06-20 | reinforce | +7.4 | 25.6 | E184 Donald Trump support x1 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.9 | 21.8 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | reinforce | +5.1 | 26.9 | E189 Chamath support x1 [w=0.55] |
| E189 2024-07-26 | reinforce | +8.5 | 35.4 | E189 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.78] |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E194 silent |