+0.0
net board stance
what this means
13.95
-1.8% · close 2026-09-08
-1% / -22% / -22%
1m / 3m / 12m
-53%
vs SPY since 2024-05-17
4%
of 52w range · -29.1% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on BXMT
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Multifamily breaks on the capital stack, not vacancy | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -23.5% | -74.8 | 2025-08-18 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding BXMT, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Chamath
oppose ×2
▼ on
📈 Multifamily breaks on the capital stack, not vacancy
E165 · 2024-02-09
▶ 1:21:46
it just seems that at least the residential market can find a bottoming sooner because you can reset prices every year, but commercial just seems like a melting ice.
Sacks
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Multifamily breaks on the capital stack, not vacancy
E165 · 2024-02-09
▶ 1:23:50
That's why even categories like multifamily, where you don't have a vacancy problem, there's strong demand, those properties still don't make sense... But for all the people who are refinancing now, who are coming up this year, last year, next year, they're in deep trouble. And that's why there's a rolling crisis in real estate, is because the debt rolls over time. It's not like everybody hits the wall and has to refinance at the same time.
Sacks
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Multifamily breaks on the capital stack, not vacancy
E162 · 2024-01-19
▶ 45:52
this Adam Neumann news shows, is that you could be fully occupied and you could still default.
Friedberg
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Multifamily breaks on the capital stack, not vacancy
E142 · 2023-08-18
▶ 1:11:27
I heard there's just no bid. I mean, these guys I know that work in commercial real estate debt said they're putting out these syndicated loan proposals to the typical funders and there's no bid.
Sacks
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Multifamily breaks on the capital stack, not vacancy
E142 · 2023-08-18
▶ 1:02:07
The problem is not on the demand side. The problem is in the capital stack... First of all, the rates are much higher. You're looking at paying 8% or 9% instead of the 3% to 4% that you had penciled in your model a couple of years ago... There is not, I think, a sector of real estate developer who is not in distress right now if they need financing in the next year or two.