+0.0
net board stance
what this means
192.9
-3.6% · close 2026-11-06
+5% / +7% / -14%
1m / 3m / 12m
-33%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
66%
of 52w range · -17.5% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where All-In Alpha stands — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Last mention E151 · silent for 141 episodes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on WDAY
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | result | return | vs SPY | scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 SaaS seat contraction — net revenue retention goes below 100% | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | WRONG | -94.1% | -110.8 | 2023-12-03 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding WDAY, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
if you are at 100% net dollar retention, okay, which means that you're kind of treading water ... That company now comps to roughly three to five times ARR
I think Jeremy Ball's substacks showed that the average growth forecast for SaaS companies for the next 12 months had been cut roughly in half. ... That meant they were buying a lot less software on a per-seat basis. So I think we've been through, call it a B2B or enterprise recession.
But this is the worst software recession we've been in. I think since the dot-com crash. I mean, the buyers have been laying off employees by the thousands. And since software has bought on a per-seat basis, the market has really condensed.
And then the thing that has happened over the past year is that sales have been hit. Every software company that I know is re-forecasting down, it's so much harder to grow. Customers are consolidating vendors, sharpening their pencils. Seed expansion has been replaced with seed contraction.
And I think that startups are absolutely seeing that in their sales right now. Sales are slipping. It's taking longer.
Okay, look, there's going to be three major sources of slowdown for software companies next year. Number one, new business is going to dry up.
I think this vicious cycle for the next year or so where seat contraction becomes the norm instead of seat expansion.