📈 Robinhood compounds hard off its $30B IPO
HOOD's 22M members survived the GameStop mess, the company keeps shipping products, and a generation is learning markets on it — so the $30B IPO price is a floor, with multi-bagger upside from here.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 42.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG HOOD
expression · bullish equities
WRONG
result · return -74.2% · vs SPY -69.5%
2022-07-30
born 2021-07-30 (E42) → window closed
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 9 (HOOD)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG HOOD (primary play). HOOD fell 74.2% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -74.2% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -4.7% → vs SPY = -74.2 − (-4.7) = -69.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Jason | opposed: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-30)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | HOOD | stock | PRIMARY | the named instrument; IPO'd 2021-07-29, one day before this episode |
Mention log newest first
Jason
equities 49% · n=105
· E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:14:33
SUPPORT
“Yeah, you know, right now, it's my third biggest win, Uber, Comm, and then this one. And, you know, time and market. I think Robinhood going out of 30 billion, there's a chance this could go 10, 20, 30x from here. I think it could be a trillion-dollar company someday. 22 million members, even through all the craziness that we talked about on this podcast.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -35.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E42 2021-07-30 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E42 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.7 | 40.3 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.6 | 38.7 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.5 | 37.2 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.5 | 35.7 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.4 | 34.2 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | oppose | -12.0 | 11.7 | E58 Chamath opposes x2 |
| E58 2021-12-11 | reinforce | +13.2 | 25.0 | E58 Jason support x2 |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -1.0 | 24.0 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.8 | 20.4 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.8 | 18.0 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E89 silent |