📈 Robinhood compounds hard off its $30B IPO
HOOD's 22M members survived the GameStop mess, the company keeps shipping products, and a generation is learning markets on it — so the $30B IPO price is a floor, with multi-bagger upside from here.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 40.8 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG HOOD
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -74.2% · α -69.5%
2022-07-30
window closed
also touching these tickers, same direction: Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 12 (HOOD) · Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization 10 (HOOD)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG HOOD (primary play). HOOD fell 74.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -74.2% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -4.7% → α = -74.2 − (-4.7) = -69.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Jason | opposed: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-30)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | HOOD | stock | PRIMARY | the named instrument; IPO'd 2021-07-29, one day before this episode |
Mention log
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:14:33
SUPPORT
“Yeah, you know, right now, it's my third biggest win, Uber, Comm, and then this one. And, you know, time and market. I think Robinhood going out of 30 billion, there's a chance this could go 10, 20, 30x from here. I think it could be a trillion-dollar company someday. 22 million members, even through all the craziness that we talked about on this podcast.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -35.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E42 2021-07-30 | init | +40.8 | 40.8 | E42 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.97] |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.6 | 39.2 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.6 | 37.6 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.5 | 36.1 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.4 | 34.7 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.4 | 33.3 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.3 | 30.7 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.0 | 24.0 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | oppose | -10.1 | 13.0 | E58 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.84] |
| E58 2021-12-11 | reinforce | +12.7 | 25.7 | E58 Jason support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.9 | 21.8 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E89 silent |