← pool

📈 Robinhood compounds hard off its $30B IPO

HOOD's 22M members survived the GameStop mess, the company keeps shipping products, and a generation is learning markets on it — so the $30B IPO price is a floor, with multi-bagger upside from here.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 42.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG HOOD
expression · bullish equities
WRONG
result · return -74.2% · vs SPY -69.5%
2022-07-30
born 2021-07-30 (E42) → window closed

other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 9 (HOOD)

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG HOOD (primary play). HOOD fell 74.2% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -74.2% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -4.7% → vs SPY = -74.2 − (-4.7) = -69.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    ▶ WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Jason | opposed: Chamath

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-30)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG HOODstock PRIMARY the named instrument; IPO'd 2021-07-29, one day before this episode

Mention log newest first

Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E58 (2021-12-11) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 4:47 SUPPORT
“We're not dispensing stock advice, but I'm not selling any of my shares. I'm telling you right now.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E58 (2021-12-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 4:28 OPPOSE
“That thing has been a stone sinking to the floor of the ocean.”
Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:14:33 SUPPORT
“Yeah, you know, right now, it's my third biggest win, Uber, Comm, and then this one. And, you know, time and market. I think Robinhood going out of 30 billion, there's a chance this could go 10, 20, 30x from here. I think it could be a trillion-dollar company someday. 22 million members, even through all the craziness that we talked about on this podcast.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason
Jason 49%
2 scoring events · 82% of moves
+55.2 → net +55.2
Chamath
Chamath 42%
1 scoring event · 18% of moves
+0.0 / -12.0 → net -12.0

⏳ decay drained -35.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E42 2021-07-30 init +42.0 42.0 E42 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x3)
E43 2021-08-06 decay -1.7 40.3 E43 silent
E44 2021-08-28 decay -1.6 38.7 E44 silent
E45 2021-09-04 decay -1.5 37.2 E45 silent
E46 2021-09-14 decay -1.5 35.7 E46 silent
E47 2021-09-18 decay -1.4 34.2 E47 silent
E49 2021-10-02 decay -1.4 32.9 E49 silent
E50 2021-10-09 decay -1.3 31.6 E50 silent
E51 2021-10-16 decay -1.3 30.3 E51 silent
E52 2021-10-23 decay -1.2 29.1 E52 silent
E53 2021-10-30 decay -1.2 27.9 E53 silent
E54 2021-11-06 decay -1.1 26.8 E54 silent
E55 2021-11-13 decay -1.1 25.7 E55 silent
E56 2021-11-20 decay -1.0 24.7 E56 silent
E57 2021-12-04 decay -1.0 23.7 E57 silent
E58 2021-12-11 oppose -12.0 11.7 E58 Chamath opposes x2
E58 2021-12-11 reinforce +13.2 25.0 E58 Jason support x2
E59 2021-12-17 decay -1.0 24.0 E59 silent
E60 2021-12-23 decay -1.0 23.0 E60 silent
E61 2021-12-29 decay -0.9 22.1 E61 silent
E62 2022-01-08 decay -0.9 21.2 E62 silent
E63 2022-01-15 decay -0.8 20.4 E63 silent
E64 2022-01-22 decay -0.8 19.5 E64 silent
E65 2022-01-29 decay -0.8 18.8 E65 silent
E66 2022-02-05 decay -0.8 18.0 E66 silent
E67 2022-02-12 decay -0.7 17.3 E67 silent
E68 2022-02-19 decay -0.7 16.6 E68 silent
E70 2022-02-24 decay -0.7 15.9 E70 silent
E71 2022-03-05 decay -0.6 15.3 E71 silent
E72 2022-03-19 decay -0.6 14.7 E72 silent
E73 2022-03-26 decay -0.6 14.1 E73 silent
E74 2022-04-01 decay -0.6 13.5 E74 silent
E75 2022-04-09 decay -0.5 13.0 E75 silent
E76 2022-04-16 decay -0.5 12.5 E76 silent
E77 2022-04-23 decay -0.5 12.0 E77 silent
E78 2022-04-30 decay -0.5 11.5 E78 silent
E79 2022-05-07 decay -0.5 11.0 E79 silent
E80 2022-05-13 decay -0.4 10.6 E80 silent
E81 2022-05-23 decay -0.4 10.2 E81 silent
E82 2022-05-24 decay -0.4 9.8 E82 silent
E84 2022-06-24 decay -0.4 9.4 E84 silent
E85 2022-06-30 decay -0.4 9.0 E85 silent
E86 2022-07-08 decay -0.4 8.6 E86 silent
E87 2022-07-14 decay -0.3 8.3 E87 silent
E88 2022-07-22 decay -0.3 8.0 E88 silent
E89 2022-07-29 decay -0.3 7.6 E89 silent