ADBE

Adobe Inc.

stock all instruments
+0.0
net board stance what this means
257.55
-3.4% · close 2026-09-08
-3% / +8% / -28%
1m / 3m / 12m
-132%
vs SPY since 2023-08-18
37%
of 52w range · -29.9% off high
2/2
hit rate as primary · α +42

Where we stand — 0 live ideas

No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Sacks
Sacks w=0.89 equities
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E96
+3
pushes up
Jason
Jason w=0.97 equities
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E96
+3
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.87 equities
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E229
+0
neutral
Chamath
Chamath w=0.84 equities
3 ideas (0 live) · last heard E234
-6
pushes down

Track record on ADBE

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 2 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 1.0, average α +41.6. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
🏛️ China retaliates by openly abandoning IP protection ▼ SHORT adjacent MISS -5.2% -36.7 2026-04-05
📈 Adobe takes the AI valuation retrade before Figma does ▼ SHORT primary HIT +41.7% +20.4 2026-07-04
📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction ▲ LONG primary HIT +78.6% +62.7 2023-09-17

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding ADBE, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Adobe takes the AI valuation retrade before Figma does E234 · 2025-07-04 ▶ 1:16:29
The free money I think trade, instead of having to bet up or down Jason on AI, I would, if I could get like 50 or 100 million dollars of Figma, I would probably be long it and I would short an equivalent quantum of Adobe, and I would just book the spread. And I think you make a ton of money that way. That's a safer trade because even if the AI model thing comes around the corner, we don't see it. The person who's going to take a retrade on valuation faster than Figma will be Adobe.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ China retaliates by openly abandoning IP protection E229 · 2025-05-24 ▶ 1:21:50
the amount of IP that's available for purchase or for licensing, questionable provenance, but how effective and good it is, is causing them to figure out how to establish more of a presence to just buy stuff there.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ China retaliates by openly abandoning IP protection E229 · 2025-05-24 ▶ 1:21:06
And you will see some very good posts recently on people talking about how a lot of technology that's been developed in the United States is being transferred to China and they are building biotech companies and biotech solutions that take American IP and put them into market. And this has also had a very big dampening effect on the biotech market.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ China retaliates by openly abandoning IP protection E225 · 2025-04-26 ▶ 15:09
The same is true, by the way, in pharmaceutical companies, in software companies, in hardware companies. If you want to go do business in China today, you have to set up a 51% JV, where some local company owns 51% of your equity and your IP. ... They can come in and take your IP. And so I think that this is like a really important part of the trade discussions and negotiations that a lot of people miss, that American businesses will see massive revenue growth and massive market adoption if we can get regulatory parity in some of these key trade deals.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ China retaliates by openly abandoning IP protection E222 · 2025-04-05 ▶ 1:03:33
China had the State Council meeting a couple of days ago, and in that State Council meeting, they announced a series of measures and a series of steps that they would be willing to take on IP infringement in the case of retaliatory tariff escalation in a trade war. What that means is that China may step up and say, you know what, we are disregarding all of the IP rights held by IP rights holders around the world, and they could steal IP more openly, more brazenly
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction E143 · 2023-08-25 ▶ 47:25
They clearly had a win in the Microsoft Activision thing and now they're probably going to find issue with the Adobe Figma thing
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction E130 · 2023-05-26 ▶ 1:09:17
My thought on the Adobe thing for what it's worth is like, do they want a mulligan on this $20 billion Figma thing?
Chamath Chamath oppose ×1 ▲ on 📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction E122 · 2023-03-31 ▶ 1:01:18
This is yet another reason that Figma really needs to close the acquisition from Adobe. I mean, it's like the value of these apps are just getting gutted.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×3 ▲ on 📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction E108 · 2022-12-16 ▶ 1:07:24
Because if you take those three things, I mean, oh my God, they just absolutely top ticked before any of this stuff was known. So today Adobe could probably buy this thing for like 7 billion instead of 20 billion.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×3 ▲ on 📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction E96 · 2022-09-17 ▶ 10:21
you have this sort of parade of terribles for Adobe that they're going to have to navigate, right? They have a very large portion of cash. They have a large portion of stock. They have decaying earnings in their core business that they now have to explain.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction E96 · 2022-09-17 ▶ 25:02
And people thought they were overpaying. And then YouTube, everyone thought it was crazy. They paid a billion six for that business, and it's probably the greatest acquisition of all time.
Jason Jason support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction E96 · 2022-09-17 ▶ 13:54
It's a transformative deal in the same way the WhatsApp deal was for Facebook. It removes one of the two existential threats to Adobe, and it turns Adobe, I guess, into a growth story now.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction E96 · 2022-09-17 ▶ 6:39
And so, okay, so yeah, so Adobe is paying 50 times current ARR. But if you believe this, they're only paying divided by two, they're paying 25 times end of next year, so like 18 months from now. And then you figure, you know, within say two years after that, they're going to be, you know, at somewhere between one and a half and two billion of ARR. And as you guys know, there just aren't that many SaaS companies that even get to a billion of ARR. So I don't think Adobe is making a bad deal here.