📈 EV makers outrun the legacy automakers
Chamath's second worked example of a deep-liquidity spread: inside the trillions of dollars of auto market cap, be long the EV natives (Tesla, Lucid, Rivian) and short the traditional automakers. Offered as an idea that 'makes sense' and 'could be a trade' rather than a position he discloses, so conviction is low - but the direction is explicit. Rivian is excluded from the plays because it did not list until 2021-11-10, four days after this episode.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 28.5 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG TSLA
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -46.5% · α -27.9%
2022-11-06
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
also touching these tickers, same direction: Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab 52 (TSLA)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG TSLA (primary play). TSLA fell 46.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -46.5% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -18.5% → α = -46.5 − (-18.5) = -27.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-11-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | TSLA | stock | PRIMARY | first-named long leg and the only EV native with a real trading history at this date |
| ▲ LONG | LCID | stock | adjacent | second-named long leg; listed via the CCIV SPAC in July 2021 so it is priceable here |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E54 (2021-11-06) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 16:23
SUPPORT
“A different version of this idea, which makes sense, is in autos. Again, trillions of dollars of market cap, and you can make a decision. Do I want to be long? Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian, and short the traditional autos, that could be a trade.”
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E84 (2022-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 43:27
OPPOSE
“yes, sure, theoretically, people will think about buying an electric car, but most people aren't thinking about that on average for five or six years from now, because that's the average of a 12 year cycle, right?”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -25.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E54 2021-11-06 | init | +13.4 | 13.4 | E54 born by Chamath (sentiment x1) [w=0.84] |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | reinforce | +16.4 | 22.4 | E76 Jason support x1 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.5 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | oppose | -10.4 | 7.1 | E84 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.87] |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | reinforce | +12.2 | 18.3 | E89 Friedberg support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.87] |
| E89 2022-07-29 | reinforce | +10.3 | 28.5 | E89 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84] |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E103 silent |