📈 Visa/Mastercard at peak market cap — Web3 rails eat the 2-3% tax
Traditional payment rails living off a 2-3% transaction tax get disrupted by decentralized Web3 payment infrastructure (developing world first, Africa P2P) — short V/MA is 'the most profitable spread trade of my lifetime', with disruption starting within a year. (The long-crypto-rails leg has no public instrument; only the short leg is scored.)
0
CONVICTION
peaked 65.0 GREEN
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT V
expression · bearish equities
HALF
result · return +3.9% · vs SPY +22.3%
2022-12-29
born 2021-12-29 (E61) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT V (primary play). V fell 3.9% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +3.9% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -18.4%
→ vs SPY = +3.9 − (-18.4) = +22.3%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: -14.5% — did V move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-12-29)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E61 (2021-12-29) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 32:14
SUPPORT
“They were the classic network-effect monopoly business... as with all networks, complacency drives innovation. And this fueled innovation is now starting to figure out ways to not just crack their way into the network, but to replace them with an entirely different model.”
Jason
equities 49% · n=105
· E61 (2021-12-29) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 30:26
SUPPORT
“Well, not to mention you also have in between these two, Venmo and Cash App, which are not crypto, but they certainly as brands mean more to young people than Visa and MasterCard. ... Visa and MasterCard became a tax. It took them decades and decades to have that power over folks. But I think a firm does break that.”
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E61 (2021-12-29) · annual_prediction · strength 3
▶ 27:09
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“My biggest business loser for 2022 is Visa and MasterCard and traditional payment rails... this is the year you can put on what probably will be the most profitable spread trade of my lifetime... short these companies and be long well-thought-out Web3 crypto projects... I think this is their peak market cap... this is not one where disruption happens slow... like in a year.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -54.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E61 2021-12-29 | init | +48.0 | 48.0 | E61 born by Chamath (annual_prediction x3) |
| E61 2021-12-29 | reinforce | +9.4 | 57.4 | E61 Jason support x1 (new voice) |
| E61 2021-12-29 | reinforce | +7.7 | 65.0 | E61 Friedberg support x1 (new voice) |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -2.6 | 62.4 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -2.5 | 59.9 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -2.4 | 57.5 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -2.3 | 55.2 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -2.2 | 53.0 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -2.1 | 50.9 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -2.0 | 48.9 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -2.0 | 46.9 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -1.9 | 45.0 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -1.8 | 43.2 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -1.7 | 41.5 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -1.7 | 39.8 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -1.6 | 38.3 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -1.5 | 36.7 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -1.5 | 35.3 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -1.4 | 33.8 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -1.4 | 32.5 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -1.3 | 31.2 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -1.1 | 27.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -1.1 | 25.4 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -1.0 | 23.4 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.9 | 20.7 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.6 | 15.6 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.6 | 13.2 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.4 | 10.8 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E109 silent |