📈 The intermediary layer of traditional media is being dismantled
Newspaper/legacy-news revenue has gone from tens of billions to single-digit billions and keeps falling; companies and investors go direct (Coinbase's fact-check blog, a16z media, podcasts), so the press loses both economics and its role as interpreter.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 73.8 GREEN
WATCH
band
▼ SHORT NYT
expression · bearish equities
HIT
outcome · R +19.6% · α +19.9%
2022-05-31
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT NYT (primary play). NYT fell 19.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +19.6% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -0.3%
→ α = +19.6 − (-0.3) = +19.9%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +19.2% — did NYT move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 19.6, α 19.9)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-05-31)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | NYT | stock | PRIMARY | largest listed pure-play legacy news publisher |
| ▼ SHORT | GCI | stock | adjacent | Gannett — local newspaper roll-up, the Tribune-style casualty Chamath cites |
| ▼ SHORT | NWSA | stock | adjacent | News Corp print/news assets on the same revenue curve |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E34 (2021-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 35:32
SUPPORT
“And literally from the tens of billions of dollars to basically single digit billions today over the last 20 years, which effectively means traditional media's revenue source is going away. ... But if we had to put a label on this, this is the dismantling of traditional media. It is happening in real time.”
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E56 (2021-11-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 45:34
SUPPORT
“I would encourage everyone to stop using the term the media or even the term mainstream media and just recognize that there are specific outlets that are on their way down. Yeah, these are content companies that need ratings. They used to be the monopoly and they're no longer. And, you know, they're like yesteryear's news. And it's just, you know, it's like complaining about, you know, whatever, pick any industry that's been disrupted. But they are and will be further disrupted by kind of direct to source fat gathering.”
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E56 (2021-11-20) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 36:41
SUPPORT
“It just speaks to this ongoing fact pattern where the media is at a point where they are at a very much a low point in their trustworthiness, their ability to fact check their ability to stick to the truth. I think it's been undone.”
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E60 (2021-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:13:13
SUPPORT
“there was an article in The Washington Post that I put into the group chat where The Washington Post article was effectively like Washington Post forced to revisit journalism practices because of falling click-through rates and lack of viewership.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E66 (2022-02-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:16:35
SUPPORT
“He is the biggest figure in independent journalism. He gets 11 million viewers every week. ... And the same week, we saw that Tucker Carlson now gets more young Democrats listening to his show than CNN and MSNBC. And I'm telling you, this is the reason why.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E76 (2022-04-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 46:18
SUPPORT
“the corporate journalists like Axios, they don't make a lot of money. What they have is some degree of status, but more importantly, they have influence. That's why they do those jobs. ... and their influence is enhanced when other people don't have the right to speak. And the reason why Elon is a supervillain in their eyes is because he's going to give the people their right to free speech back.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -80.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E34 2021-05-31 | init | +35.2 | 35.2 | E34 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.84] |
| E34 2021-05-31 | reinforce | +12.9 | 48.1 | E34 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.89] |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -1.9 | 46.2 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.8 | 44.3 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.8 | 42.5 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.7 | 40.8 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.6 | 39.2 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.6 | 37.6 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.5 | 36.1 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.4 | 34.7 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.4 | 33.3 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.3 | 32.0 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.3 | 30.7 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.2 | 29.5 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.1 | 27.2 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.1 | 26.1 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | reinforce | +9.4 | 34.4 | E52 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84] |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.4 | 33.1 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.3 | 31.7 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.3 | 30.5 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | reinforce | +8.7 | 39.2 | E56 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84] |
| E56 2021-11-20 | reinforce | +14.2 | 53.4 | E56 Friedberg support x3 (new voice) [w=0.87] |
| E56 2021-11-20 | reinforce | +6.2 | 59.6 | E56 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89] |
| E56 2021-11-20 | reinforce | +7.1 | 66.7 | E56 Jason support x1 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -2.7 | 64.0 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -2.6 | 61.5 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -2.5 | 59.0 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | reinforce | +5.3 | 64.3 | E60 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.87] |
| E60 2021-12-23 | reinforce | +4.5 | 68.8 | E60 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84] |
| E60 2021-12-23 | reinforce | +5.0 | 73.8 | E60 Sacks support x3 [w=0.89] |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -3.0 | 70.8 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -2.8 | 68.0 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -2.7 | 65.3 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -2.6 | 62.7 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -2.5 | 60.2 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | reinforce | +6.3 | 66.5 | E66 Sacks support x3 [w=0.89] |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -2.7 | 63.8 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -2.6 | 61.3 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -2.5 | 58.8 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -2.4 | 56.5 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -2.3 | 54.2 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -2.2 | 52.1 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -2.1 | 50.0 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -2.0 | 48.0 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | reinforce | +5.2 | 53.2 | E76 Chamath support x1 [w=0.84] |
| E76 2022-04-16 | reinforce | +7.5 | 60.7 | E76 Sacks support x3 [w=0.89] |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -2.4 | 58.2 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -2.3 | 55.9 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -2.2 | 53.7 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -2.1 | 51.5 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -2.1 | 49.5 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -2.0 | 47.5 | E82 silent |