🛢️ China retaliates by halting US ag imports, forcing farm transfer payments
Friedberg's first-term replay: China is the biggest buyer of US agricultural exports, so tariff retaliation means it tears up or stops import purchases altogether, hitting a major income source for a large number of states. Washington backfills with very large transfer payments to farmers (north of $20B last time), which cushions the farmer but not the listed ag processing and export complex, and the shock ripples through the wider ag economy.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 31.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT ADM
expression · bearish commodities
MISS
outcome · R -55.6% · α -68.4%
2026-02-15
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-02-15 → 2026-02-15 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT ADM (primary play). ADM rose 55.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -55.6% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +12.8%
→ α = -55.6 − (+12.8) = -68.4%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -42.8% — did ADM move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-02-15)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | ADM | stock | PRIMARY | largest listed US ag processor/exporter, most levered to Chinese purchase volumes |
| ▼ SHORT | BG | stock | adjacent | Bunge's oilseed crush and export book carries the same China-demand exposure |
| ▼ SHORT | MOO | etf | adjacent | broad agribusiness basket for the rippling effect through the ag economy Friedberg describes |
Mention log
Friedberg
commodities w=0.75 · n=8
· E215 (2025-02-15) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:16:38
SUPPORT
“Ag exports are a major revenue source, major income source and a major part of the economy for a large number of states. And so there will be, as there was in the first Trump presidency, very likely very large transfer payments made to farmers. Because China is very likely going to tear up imports or stop making import purchases altogether, which is what happened during the first presidency. When they did that, the federal government, I believe, had transfer payments of north of $20 billion to farmers.”
Friedberg
commodities w=0.75 · n=8
· E222 (2025-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:03:33
SUPPORT
“China stopped buying American ag exports and China is the biggest buyer of American agricultural products. As a result, the Trump Administration had to issue two support payment checks to farmers that totaled $28 billion in 2018 and 2019”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -30.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E215 2025-02-15 | init | +26.2 | 26.2 | E215 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.75] |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -1.0 | 23.2 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.9 | 20.5 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | reinforce | +10.7 | 31.3 | E222 Friedberg support x3 [w=0.75] |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -1.3 | 30.0 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E261 silent |