+0.0
net board stance
what this means
80.39
-2.9% · close 2026-09-08
+2% / +18% / +6%
1m / 3m / 12m
+3%
vs SPY since 2025-04-11
88%
of 52w range · -5.3% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α -157
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on XYZ
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.0, average α -157.1. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ Financial deplatforming becomes the next big political fight | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +65.9% | +71.1 | 2022-08-06 |
| 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -71.3% | -157.1 | 2026-08-06 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding XYZ, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
The first takeaway for me was the value of Stripe's ecosystem is probably underappreciated. ... But in the report, they talk about all the additional products that they're able to build around core payments. And one of them is the billing product. It's half a billion dollars a year of ARR. That's just incredible. And I think if they figure out network effects inside of the Stripe ecosystem, that's interesting. So that's first, which is the hub and spoke of payments being at the center, but all of these other incremental services.
I have one company myself and I'm proud to say I've sold no shares of my Robinhood. I keep all my Robinhood shares. ... Their whole plan was always to provide the full suite of services.
their margins and their LTV to CAC or their return on invested capital, it looks the same or in some cases worse than the traditional financial services businesses that they're meant to disrupt
CL
Claire Cormier Thielke
support ×1
▲ on
📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers
E82 · 2022-05-24
▶ 0:28
China's e-commerce percentage is about 25% of their overall retail. Here it's about 14%. Again, y'all are smart. We can see where this is going. ... In China, about 85-ish percent of their transactions are mobile. Here, that's barely 30%. Where is that going? How does that work? Again, you can see what's happening.
we've seen sort of random decision making that seems arbitrary by a lot of these technology companies, and the payments companies. Friedberg was mentioning Visa and MasterCard earlier in the group chat.
And they're not just doing it on speech. They're also taking away your right to engage in payments, in transactions, to earn a living. And unless we stop this now, it'll keep going.
The idea that you can deep platform one or the other or fire them from their job or prevent them from having access to the money that they've earned or preventing other people from donating money, that's really, it's a really low bar. ... And I think when you normalize this kind of behavior, it's a very slippery slope.
wrote a piece for Barry Weiss' substack talking about how financial de-platforming would be the next wave of online censorship ... What I could not have predicted is that it would occur in our mild-mannered neighbor to the north and that the reprisals would be directed by the government itself, not just a consortium of private actors.
And you know, what was PayPal doing? I wrote a story for Barry Weiss, for her substack about how PayPal was taking the lead in financial deplatforming. They were working with the ADL and the SPLC to kick to identify groups to kick off their platform. So that's what management was spending their cycles on figuring out how not to grow, how to kick people off their platform and trying to figure out how to get more people on it. ... You can waste your management cycles on stuff like that. Now their stock is down 25%.
I wrote a piece called the No Buy List where I basically you had companies like PayPal and some of these other financial firms were starting to deny service to customers, to users based on their political affiliations. ... if this equity auditors tells you, well, look, I don't think it's equitable to allow these conservative groups to, you know, be a user of your product. Well, what's the company going to do? They're going to have to listen to that. ... And that is a plausible scenario, given that it's already occurred.
Right, but who are the big winners in this wave of consolidation going to be at the end of the day? It's going to be Square, it's going to be Stripe, it's going to be PayPal, it's going to be the big online companies, not the offline legacy banks.
I have a big thesis and a big belief that over the next decade, we're going to see those five categories start to merge and you're going to have three to five superpowers that are going to offer a consolidated stack of services.
And so if Square can basically continue to acquire or build adjacent features that consolidates the financial services stack for their consumers, the stock market will reward these guys. They'll be able to grow and buy things for free for the next five or 10 years. ... If you can see folks acquiring adjacent features, or if you can see folks taking expense lines and turning them into revenue lines, these are, in my opinion, sure bet companies that compound forever in the public markets.
If you try to deny Americans their right to access the new economy, we see no reason for your company to get any bigger. We're going to oppose every acquisition you ever do. ... I'm predicting right now that financial deplatforming is going to be the big hot potato, political hot potato over the next year. This is the next wave of censorship.