🏛️ Debt-ceiling standoff resolves — they raise it and keep spending

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E112 (2023-01-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 40:37 SUPPORT

“And in that context, I think that people will him and ha, but ultimately, they'll capitulate, they will raise the debt ceiling, and they'll continue to fund this transition away from globalism.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E121 (2023-03-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 43:23 OPPOSE

“So look, I think this is the biggest like black swan. It's not a black swan, but this is the biggest kind of elephant in the room right now.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E121 (2023-03-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 53:55 REVERSAL

“My point is put this in the who cares bucket and get back to the facts. Friedberg mentioned it. We have a debt ceiling problem that's in the offing. Sacks mentioned it. We have a commercial real estate crisis.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E123 (2023-04-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 39:58 SUPPORT

“And there's going to be some concessions on spending. And ultimately, the debt ceiling will get extended. And that those concessions on spending will allow the Republican Party to save face with their voters and say, look, we got some concessions here.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E123 (2023-04-07) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 40:28 SUPPORT

“I'm with Friedberg. I think the majority case is a bunch of hand wringing and then they make a concession.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E128 (2023-05-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 28:18 SUPPORT

“the governments will keep spending. Inflation will be here. Assets will keep inflating. The M2 money supply will keep going up.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E130 (2023-05-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 29:16 SUPPORT

“You know what happened? Absolutely fucking nothing. So I do think that this is another opportunity for the little red riding hoods to get their panties in a bunch. But these downgrades don't mean much of it.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E130 (2023-05-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 32:42 SUPPORT

“They're going to have to raise the debt ceiling. That being said, I think they're going to be able to. Reuters had a report this morning that they're only 72 billion apart now in their positions, which is a relatively small amount. So my guess is they're going to work this out.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E131 (2023-06-02) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 36:58 SUPPORT

“That feels to me, and we did predict here that they would get this done, it does feel to me like this is some amount of progress, right?”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E131 (2023-06-02) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 41:17 SUPPORT

“So I am just an advocate for cutting revenue, because I do think it's the simplest way to force people, because the next time they go through these machinations and all this theater around a dead ceiling, they'll just have less revenue to play with, and it'll just become a harder and harder and harder problem.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E140 (2023-08-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 54:54 SUPPORT

“Let me just state what I think about the downgrade. It's irrelevant. The S&P did it 13 years ago. Fitch is a marginal credit rating agency. They're at a minimum 13 years late.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E148 (2023-10-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 23:36 REVERSAL

“If it stops the CR process, it'll be effective to the tune of above $500 billion. It'll be half a trillion dollars effective.”