📈 ProKidney's autologous cell therapy for chronic kidney disease
Chamath wrote a $125M check into a ~$500M round (alongside Royalty Pharma founder Pablo Legorreta and Carlos Slim) for ProKidney, which harvests a patient's own kidney cells, amplifies selected cell lines and re-injects them to lift eGFR in chronic kidney disease and dialysis patients. The bet is that the clinical data advances and the just-listed company reprices on it.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 30.1 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG PROK
expression · bullish equities
HIT
outcome · R +26.8% · α +6.0%
2023-07-14
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-07-14 → 2023-07-14 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG PROK (primary play). PROK rose 26.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +26.8% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +20.8% → α = +26.8 − (+20.8) = +6.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 26.8, α 6.0)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-07-14)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | PROK | stock | PRIMARY | the company Chamath disclosed writing a $125M check into; listed via de-SPAC days before this episode |
Mention log
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -25.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E87 2022-07-14 | init | +30.1 | 30.1 | E87 born by Chamath (positioning x3) [w=0.84] |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -1.2 | 27.8 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -1.1 | 26.7 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -1.1 | 25.6 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E137 silent |