🌍 US labor boom: unemployment to 3-4% within two quarters
With COVID ending and payrolls beating by 200k plus upward revisions, the economy roars back and unemployment falls from 6.2% to 3-4% within two quarters, favoring domestic cyclicals over defensives.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 51.6 WATCH
EMBER
band
▲ LONG IWM
expression · bullish macro
MISS
outcome · R +4.6% · α -14.9%
2021-09-06
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-03-06 → 2021-09-06 — first mention + 6-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG IWM (primary play). IWM rose 4.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +4.6% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +19.5% → α = +4.6 − (+19.5) = -14.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Sacks | proxy-sensitive: XLF→PARTIAL (+12.4%); XLI→PARTIAL (+11.5%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-03-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | IWM | etf | PRIMARY | small-cap domestic cyclicals are the purest expression of a US labor-market boom |
| ▲ LONG | XLF | etf | adjacent | banks lever to both employment growth and the higher rates that come with it |
| ▲ LONG | XLI | etf | adjacent | industrials track hiring and real-economy activity |
Mention log
Sacks
macro w=1.12 · n=40
· E24 (2021-03-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 15:52
SUPPORT
· horizon 6mo
“And look, here's the thing. We're already down to 6% unemployment. We're going to be down to I'd say probably 3% or 4% in two quarters. I mean, the economy is coming roaring back. And the reason it's coming roaring back is because COVID is ending, right?”
Sacks
macro w=1.12 · n=40
· E28 (2021-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 38:38
SUPPORT
· horizon 9mo
“It looks like we're about to have the roaring 20s. The economy looks like it's rebounding. ... It's about to boom. Goldman Sachs says we're going to be down to like 3% unemployment by the end of the year.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -31.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E24 2021-03-06 | init | +47.2 | 47.2 | E24 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.12] |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -1.9 | 45.4 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -1.8 | 43.5 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -1.7 | 41.8 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | reinforce | +9.8 | 51.6 | E28 Sacks support x2 [w=1.12] |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -2.1 | 49.6 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -2.0 | 47.6 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -1.9 | 45.7 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -1.8 | 43.8 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -1.8 | 42.1 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.7 | 40.4 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -1.6 | 38.8 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.6 | 37.2 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.5 | 35.8 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.4 | 34.3 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.3 | 30.4 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.2 | 29.2 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E45 silent |